ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I remember that Jan. 2006 event, but I was out of town so I missed it. Like that event, the cold may get to the west slope a bit faster than the east slope, giving me a bit more time in the snow. In addition to more CAA, the backing flow to the NW could aid in some upslope enhancement on this side as well. Yeah I think really helped the west areas because the snow was much greater there...the winds were prob like 330 or 340 when it was ripping the hardest....and it took forever to get here...we actually flipped to a mix of rain and snow fairly early, but it stayed a mix forever...like 3 hours...I thought we were golden for 4-6" when i first saw mixing....but it took forever to get better. Back then we had a poster in Chester MA or nearby and when he still reported pellets mixed in 2 hours after I mixed, I knew there was a problem...meanwhile PSF was ripping +SN at 1/4 mi vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 wow now I have to worry about rain.. such a narrow band of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I remember that Jan. 2006 event, but I was out of town so I missed it. Like that event, the cold may get to the west slope a bit faster than the east slope, giving me a bit more time in the snow. In addition to more CAA, the backing flow to the NW could aid in some upslope enhancement on this side as well. Its happening... Up in this area of the Green Mtn Spine it is 34-36F here on the eastern slope, while the western slope is down to 32F.... further south in southeast Rutland County, its 33-35F while east of the Spine is 36-41F. That couple extra hours of cooler surface temps could help the western side as this cold air translates southward in the storm. Once 850mb flips, it'll accumulate instantly while it needs to dynamically cool a bit east of the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Its happening... Up in this area of the Green Mtn Spine it is 34-36F here on the eastern slope, while the western slope is down to 32F.... further south in southeast Rutland County, its 33-35F while east of the Spine is 36-41F. That couple extra hours of cooler surface temps could help the western side as this cold air translates southward in the storm. Once 850mb flips, it'll accumulate instantly while it needs to dynamically cool a bit east of the spine. You will do fine up there. I think this NW trend is great for your area. It might skunk my BY for more than an inch or two....but up there it will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This will be a lot more dynamic than the weak wave that hit Ottawa...plus they have no elevation. and hey the low track is to BOS....no worries in Stowe...IMO the 850 zero line is garbage. gonna need some dynamics with this sucker. ottawa went below zero at 850 yesterday evening and heavy rain turned to an hour of backend snow about 8 hours later. 850 line came though here early this AM and nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 38.5 here now.... Also, as far south as Rutland, VT is 34/32 right now in the southern Champlain Valley, but Saint Johnsbury (significantly higher latitude in NE VT) is 38/36... so that cold air is oozing down the Champlain Valley at the surface and western New England right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Also, as far south as Rutland, VT is 34/32 right now in the southern Champlain Valley, but Saint Johnsbury (significantly higher latitude in NE VT) is 38/36... so that cold air is oozing down the Champlain Valley at the surface and western New England right now. 35/35 here at LSC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Move the precip shield 25miles east and the 850mb 0C line 25 miles west and nobody gets anything Move the precip shield 25miles west and the 850mb 0C line 25 miles east and there's a pretty decent snowstorm for the interior. I expect something closer to the first option. I was going to post that in the DC forum but there's enough bitter troll posts there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Move the precip shield 25miles east and the 850mb 0C line 25 miles west and nobody gets anything Move the precip shield 25miles west and the 850mb 0C line 25 miles east and there's a pretty decent snowstorm for the interior. I expect something closer to the first option. I was going to post that in the DC forum but there's enough bitter troll posts there already. You are probably right on this storm...but wrong in the Oct storm when you kept warning about the 540 line because you were still raining in Frederick, MD. I don't have high hopes for this one...but will still follow it...a good 1-3 hour burst could still give an inch or 3 to some spots....the extreme western Berks...more the Taconics I should say will get good snow I think. Monadnocks still prob get 3-5" in a the crappier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You are probably right on this storm...but wrong in the Oct storm when you kept warning about the 540 line because you were still raining in Frederick, MD. I don't have high hopes for this one...but will still follow it...a good 1-3 hour burst could still give an inch or 3 to some spots....the extreme western Berks...more the Taconics I should say will get good snow I think. Monadnocks still prob get 3-5" in a the crappier solutions. I gotta move to the monoducks. 3-5" is a crappy solution there. That'd be awesome for Frederick. Either that or find a new hobby, I think all the DC posters will kill each other like a pack of cannibalistic wolves by the end of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro out to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I gotta move to the monoducks. 3-5" is a crappy solution there. That'd be awesome for Frederick. Either that or find a new hobby, I think all the DC posters will kill each other like a pack of cannibalistic wolves by the end of this winter. Just reminisce: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 EURO goes over RI...about as amped as the GFS...solid 6" event for Powderfreak...probably 6-10" for the NEK of VT, 3-5" for dryslot with lots of taint. Looks like a central and eastern VT jackpot somewhere between 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 A little dprog/dt on the latest Euro is definitely leaning more towards a longitude event up this way. It warmed Maine aloft, and cooled western New Hampshire, along the Connecticut Valley. Seems to be trending stronger with the mid level low, and it's able to bring about the cooling on the backside quicker. It does look like when it changes over out west, it's going to rip for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Could be a few hour window of near 50 knot gusts for the coast as well, Cape on up through BOS and PWM. Core of northwesterly CAA flow at 1000 feet, should have enough downward momentum and sufficient lapse rates to see some of those gusts as the low departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah this has gone a bit NW but still not to the extent I thought you guys were implying... this is still a non-event for a large chunk of NNE from central/northern VT northeastward through the Presidentials/Whites and ME mountains. Basically draw a line from Rutland, VT to Caribou, ME. Things have been tense for some reason between some of the SNE regulars and NNE... pattern is getting to everyone, lol. I don't think I've ever seen Will and Kev like this before and its only December 6th. And I just don't think this is as far NW as the ECM... I've rehashed it over and over this morning and will go down in flames with it. I think this ends up a snowstorm for the Catskills of NY, into the Berkshires, Monadnocks, Lakes Region of NH and maybe the ME coastal plain if they cool enough. To me, that is not a NNE event like some were implying. Heaviest snow still looks to fall in SNE in the Pete, MPM, and Wxmanmitch area. Yea, agreed....no way this tucks far enough nw to get nne with absolutely no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm glad it went nuts....I was all set with Pete getting another 2' while I rained. Relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well--thinks looked so much better 24 hours ago. Congrats all you jackpot winners! So, ultimately which model appears to have led the way? The NAM/Ukie combo? Alas. This will be the one storm where Messenger won't incessently be making posts like "the last two runs of the hrrr and the RUC are showing this convection running interference. This is forcing the system to redevelop further east....." which have me paniced about my qpf. 46.9/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Oh well. Well 06z NAM still gives ORH maybe an inch or two. I haven't seen the good euro stuff so I'll peek when I get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snow probs on the SREFs aren't great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well 06z NAM still gives ORH maybe an inch or two. I haven't seen the good euro stuff so I'll peek when I get in. I find that really difficult to decipher--but from what I can tell, it ain't good. 46.7/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snow probs on the SREFs aren't great either. Nor are they here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This was supposed to attach with the 4" prob map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As I grasp at straws, BOX puts a couple within reach: ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT THAT MAY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. NAM HAS INDICATED SOME FN CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED DECENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION SO CONFIDENCE CERTAINTY IS INCREASING. MAY PROB SEE EVEN HIGH AMOUNTS IN SAID LOCATION DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL SAY WITH CERTAIN 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. -- End Changed Discussion -- And, while probably my weenie eyes are deceiving me, the 06 GFS may have ticked a TINY bit SE of the 00z. 46.5/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 6z NAM flips to snow here shortly after 6z and then goes gangbusters. It's hard to tell how much of the 0.50" between 6-9z is snow, but there's an additional 0.25" after 9z that is all snow. Maybe ~5" of glop verbatim? The GFS keeps low levels torched a little longer, but it has the burst as well. Hopefully the BL cold drains in a little better than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Schweet. Tonight: Rain and snow before 4am, then a chance of snow. Patchy fog before 4am. Low around 27. A calm wind becoming blustery northwest between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Schweet. Tonight: Rain and snow before 4am, then a chance of snow. Patchy fog before 4am. Low around 27. A calm wind becoming blustery northwest between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. I typically focus more on the ZFP--not sure if I should or not. Those have us both with 3-5". The AFD I posted does throw out a glimmer of hope for a smidge more. 46.4/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I typically focus more on the ZFP--not sure if I should or not. Those have us both with 3-5". The AFD I posted does throw out a glimmer of hope for a smidge more. I remember Turtle saying they put a fair amount of time into the p/c. I follow the results fairly closely and I have little problem with the p/c for this area. Either wway, a few inches 3-5, 4-8 will be a welcome sight. Looking at brown graa at Christmas time isn't for me. Can you imagine living where it's like that all the time? Nightmare quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I remember Turtle saying they put a fair amount of time into the p/c. I follow the results fairly closely and I have little problem with the p/c for this area. Either wway, a few inches 3-5, 4-8 will be a welcome sight. Looking at brown graa at Christmas time isn't for me. Can you imagine living where it's like that all the time? Nightmare quality. Or worse--green grass! When I do p/c on nearby towns like Savoy, Cummington, Charlemont, Colrain and repeatedly see 3-5", I see a lot of consistency there with the zfp. Regardless, seasonal total growth is a good thing. Have to head to a meeting in Worcester today, but will have lunch afterward at the Sole with a retired co-worker. Hope to get a couple glimpses of the models/comments here during the day. 46.3/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.