Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Okemo to Stowe lock and load an early holiday present shall be given with 8-15 wind driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm is tilted WAY more vertical than the previous runs...these 00z runs are torching C NH and N NH while the 18z runs had them colder. That is very bad news for most except logan11 and powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS is going to pork just about all of SNE. It's stupidly mild in the low levels all the way to the frozen tundra of MRG land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm is tilted WAY more vertical than the previous runs...these 00z runs are torching C NH and N NH while the 18z runs had them colder. That is very bad news for most except logan11 and powderfreak. Well thank God. Yeah it torches them. The low is developing further west down the coast and helping to lock in the warmth aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Sure as hell bombs the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm is tilted WAY more vertical than the previous runs...these 00z runs are torching C NH and N NH while the 18z runs had them colder. That is very bad news for most except logan11 and powderfreak. Horrible news for the ski resorts in NH and Maine. Torched prior to the cool down with flooding rains. I'd even be concerned in VT until the trend stops but realistically it can only go so far NW. I could see a southern VT torching in later runs.....but probability I think is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 lol, this thing hauls azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Verbatim though I can't even get it under 0C 850 until after 9 PM now.... I guess I get nailed pretty nicely in that 4Z to 7Z period though. Storm is tilted WAY more vertical than the previous runs...these 00z runs are torching C NH and N NH while the 18z runs had them colder. That is very bad news for most except logan11 and powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It looks like if still flips ORH for an hour or so...maybe two the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Phil gets a damaging sou'wester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well thank God. Yeah it torches them. The low is developing further west down the coast and helping to lock in the warmth aloft. Oh well...well our hope of a big CCB tail is going down the drain, but at least this was never progged to be massive. I still think my area will see accumulations at the very end, but it might be like that 90 minute variety of S+ that give 0.8" or 1.5" if lucky versus something more substantial....I think the trough had gotten way too negative on these 00z runs....its tilting everything too much so that longitude is the primary factor by a lot....we didn't want to see that....but unless we see some tick back SE or a change in orientation of the trough...looks like we are just going to have to accept a pretty meh finish to this storm. That is the trouble in these patterns...it can change fast....remember Feb 5-6 last year? Went from a snow event on the Euro at 48h to a rainer (with a 31F ice event here)....without good blocking it can happen like that. I still think there is reason to follow this, because the vortmax tucks underneath us, but the negative tilt is not good....it rips everything west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Still probably has 1-2 hours of SN+ for ORH...but its at like 3am now lol...the storms gone by 6am everywhere. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm is tilted WAY more vertical than the previous runs...these 00z runs are torching C NH and N NH while the 18z runs had them colder. That is very bad news for most except logan11 and powderfreak. owe it to the temp gradient helping this amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Oh well...well our hope of a big CCB tail is going down the drain, but at least this was never progged to be massive. I still think my area will see accumulations at the very end, but it might be like that 90 minute variety of S+ that give 0.8" or 1.5" if lucky versus something more substantial....I think the trough had gotten way too negative on these 00z runs....its tilting everything too much so that longitude is the primary factor by a lot....we didn't want to see that....but unless we see some tick back SE or a change in orientation of the trough...looks like we are just going to have to accept a pretty meh finish to this storm. That is the trouble in these patterns...it can change fast....remember Feb 5-6 last year? Went from a snow event on the Euro at 48h to a rainer (with a 31F ice event here)....without good blocking it can happen like that. I still think there is reason to follow this, because the vortmax tucks underneath us, but the negative tilt is not good....it rips everything west. Sure, it beats 55 degree muggy talk. There's always the chance something changes and as you noted with the changes possible in this type of pattern I didn't think we'd see a close to final until 12z Wednesday. More interested in the next rain threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 owe it to the temp gradient helping this amplify it kind of resembles dec 05 with a small intense vort getting absorbed into the polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I think we might be seeing the NW trend continuing like we didn't want to see. Good for powderfreak....bad for ORH hills and the rest of the interior SNE. Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies. Now I am scared with 24-30 hours still to go. I really never believed this would cut over SNE mainland like GFS is showing. I can believe how it happens though as I've been very in tune with what is supposed to be happening at the summit of Mansfield for snowmaking operations (ie start times and run times at various elevations), and the cold air just keeps getting delayed with each model run. This change has botched our schedule up as we had crews in tonight based on even last night's 00z guidance of having the H85 freezing line swing through after midnight tonight... now its like midnight tomorrow night. The crew tonight is basically sitting on their thumbs and have no chance of making snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Phil gets a damaging sou'wester. Screaming sou'wester!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Still rides the coastal plain to BOS though... I wish it could cut over SNE to like ORH because that would hold that CCB in here longer. Hauls out of here so fast as the low skips ENE to BOS...makes sense though for it to do that in terms of climo and topo. Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies. Now I am scared with 24-30 hours still to go. I really never believed this would cut over SNE mainland like GFS is showing. I can believe how it happens though as I've been very in tune with what is supposed to be happening at the summit of Mansfield for snowmaking operations (ie start times and run times at various elevations), and the cold air just keeps getting delayed with each model run. This change has botched our schedule up as we had crews in tonight based on even last night's 00z guidance of having the H85 freezing line swing through after midnight tonight... now its like midnight tomorrow night. The crew tonight is basically sitting on their thumbs and have no chance of making snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. At least you guys are going to get a nice long duration of snow making temps after the snowstorm. This is going to be a dynamic little thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. Agree with your assesment cold air is delayed not a good sign further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well ....last weekend when I started watching this frontal passage my hope was some kind of anafrontal snow behind a weak wave of low pressure maybe leaving a few inches of snow and ice.... So this still looks to exceed those modest early expectations. Agree with your assesment cold air is delayed not a good sign further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At least you guys are going to get a nice long duration of snow making temps after the snowstorm. This is going to be a dynamic little thing. It'll be good to go to homeaway or the web and find condos at 2008 prices in another few weeks. I'm willing to bet the early season rates are better next fall too if this winter doesn't change. Anyway, pulling back into the hood it;s like Christmas in Florida. Can see how dark the lawns are under the glow of the lights. It's weird. Good luck to the NW, I hope ski country gets pummeled. Maybe by morning we'll have reason to start a Weekend Wintry Threat III thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At least you guys are going to get a nice long duration of snow making temps after the snowstorm. This is going to be a dynamic little thing. 00z NAM is 0.45" liquid in a snow column as far NW as BTV and now it looks like the GFS is in the 0.5-0.75" range at BTV in a snow supporting thermal column. And BTV is west of here by 25 miles. It'll rain up here at this rate of NW shifts. I am humbled as I really, really did not expect anything more than partly cloudy skies. The NWS forecast for here went from "Mostly cloudy with clearing late" to "Snow likely. 2-4 inches total" tomorrow night, and now that may need to be bumped up to 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The front is really getting poorly defined I think. Places that have gone northerly are still hanging in the 50's. Push of cold air is very weak now and it is extremely shallow. Even here is it is a hair over 0C 850 when the better precip arrives at 0Z on the NAM, but I think we would flip fast. Places like ALB may waste precious qpf in a few more hours of rain so can't assume they are getting any major amount of snow right in the valley. I think a decent moderate snow max for the Helderbergs and northern Catskills... but the biggest dump in the Taconics, northern/western half of Berkshires (north of PSF maybe) and southern VT. Pete is still very close to cashing in and any tick east he is back in the heaviest. the 850 zero line is garbage. gonna need some dynamics with this sucker. ottawa went below zero at 850 yesterday evening and heavy rain turned to an hour of backend snow about 8 hours later. 850 line came though here early this AM and nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the 850 zero line is garbage. gonna need some dynamics with this sucker. ottawa went below zero at 850 yesterday evening and heavy rain turned to an hour of backend snow about 8 hours later. 850 line came though here early this AM and nothing happened. Yeah I was worried about that, but low level temps here are now running neck and neck with H85. Soundings also show sfc temps are closely mirrored to H85 temps, if not colder than H85. 18z NAM even gave BTV freezing rain for a few hours before snow as the sfc cools quicker. Right now for example at 11pm, its 36F at 4,000ft at Mansfield summit and I've got 34.9F on the weather station at 1,600ft on Mansfield base, and MVL (Morrisville-Stowe ASOS) at 730ft is showing 34F. So its actually inverted... if H85 goes to freezing or below, its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 rain. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is one of those rare events where Mitch in Lenox might grill Pete pretty good...not often that happens, but its usually these CAA backside events it happens...that or upslope events. I recall a good in January 2006...maybe Jan 15, 2006 where PSF and Mitch's area got over a foot but then just on the east side of the slopes it was more 3-6"...we had like 2.7" here after the flip. But west of the spine they really got the cold air in much better and it took its time getting over the crest Yes, I remember that Jan. 2006 event, but I was out of town so I missed it. Like that event, the cold may get to the west slope a bit faster than the east slope, giving me a bit more time in the snow. In addition to more CAA, the backing flow to the NW could aid in some upslope enhancement on this side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Also, as far south as Rutland, VT is 34/32 right now in the southern Champlain Valley, but Saint Johnsbury (significantly higher latitude in NE VT) is 38/36... so that cold air is oozing down the Champlain Valley at the surface and western New England right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.