Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't like the fact that this NAM run backs the wind at BOS all the way around to 300degrees during max QPF. That is more often then not a red flag that something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 are you guys asleep? take a look at the end of the NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Even without a mid level low closing off it looks like you guys still get an impressive thump of warm advection snows. If the NAM is right there's definitely a good bit of lift practically to BTV. Hey Ryan (or anyone else for that matter), I've been working 15 hour days trying to get work done before finals. What's it looking like for my home location in NW CT at the 1k foot mark? Tell my parents to get ready for some snow or no? Thanks, sorry I've been cooked with school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I guess if you can't find a reason for this to go SE, maybe it won't this time, lol. You've always got a reason for a storm to go further east... c'mon messenger, don't let us down! There's no boundary to ride...the one that may exist is inland. Temps are going to be in the mid 50s over EMA/SEMA Wednesday. We'll see how it goes in the other runs....even if this was going to nail me I'd take no interest until 12z runs Wednesday because I think we will continue to see the storm tail in as the models adjust for vm strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 are you guys asleep? take a look at the end of the NAM run Eh low probability and marginal threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 are you guys asleep? take a look at the end of the NAM run rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Eh low probability and marginal threat. not if NAM is a trend if nothing else, the coastals have had a history of exploding this year, rain or snow good luck nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 are you guys asleep? take a look at the end of the NAM run That would be wintry threat III...may get more interesting but BL is too warm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I mean, I can defintely see how it could go nuts for a few hours in some areas. The NW trend needs to stop. SREFs at least went southeast, but the euro later on will probably be more telling. Greens get hammertime thumpin' goodness, Pete and MPM probably a little uneased at that run, and for me and the south coast peeps well. LOL 1. Yes, it needs to stop. 2. Even so, I might still pick up a couple inches once it flips which is a heck of a lot better than the whiff out to sea that was expected earlier yesterday. 53.3/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Eh low probability and marginal threat. Heh ... so is/was Thursday ... and Snowtober. I'll be happy to weenie to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 are you guys asleep? take a look at the end of the NAM run That offshore feature has been modeled over the last few days but looks like it has come NW, We have had flakes for up here with that the last few runs but it looks better on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The front is really getting poorly defined I think. Places that have gone northerly are still hanging in the 50's. Push of cold air is very weak now and it is extremely shallow. Even here is it is a hair over 0C 850 when the better precip arrives at 0Z on the NAM, but I think we would flip fast. Places like ALB may waste precious qpf in a few more hours of rain so can't assume they are getting any major amount of snow right in the valley. I think a decent moderate snow max for the Helderbergs and northern Catskills... but the biggest dump in the Taconics, northern/western half of Berkshires (north of PSF maybe) and southern VT. Pete is still very close to cashing in and any tick east he is back in the heaviest. Wow the more I look at that it is very warm... we even start off as rain up here. You can tell that stationary boundary is not moving anywhere quickly. 24 hours ago, we were supposed to be below freezing at the summits at this time with a strong NW wind bringing the cold air southeastward. Now H85s don't even fall till 21z or 00z tomorrow evening... a full 24 hour delay from earlier progs. The good station to watch will be the summit of Mansfield for that H85 freezing line. Its still 37F up at 4,000ft and the wind is only "gusting" to 9mph. It was dead calm up there all day today which is really rare... shows just how weak the CAA is and we'll have to wait for the low to pass and dynamically cool us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wow the more I look at that it is very warm... we even start off as rain up here. You can tell that stationary boundary is not moving anywhere quickly. 24 hours ago, we were supposed to be below freezing at the summits at this time with a strong NW wind bringing the cold air southeastward. Now H85s don't even fall till 21z or 00z tomorrow evening... a full 24 hour delay from earlier progs. The good station to watch will be the summit of Mansfield for that H85 freezing line. Its still 37F up at 4,000ft and the wind is only "gusting" to 9mph. It was dead calm up there all day today which is really rare... shows just how weak the CAA is and we'll have to wait for the low to pass and dynamically cool us. As usual I will watch MWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That offshore feature has been modeled over the last few days but looks like it has come NW, We have had flakes for up here with that the last few runs but it looks better on this run After all, this threat looked pretty meh until day 4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam clown map....def a lot worse than 18z for central and eastern areas...tho still a little tail in Essex county, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 After all, this threat looked pretty meh until day 4/5 Yes, I would say you can't totally rule it out, Going to need to some others models jump on board with it, Nam would be an outlier right now but, This threat was meh a few days back and we see what has happned with it so it will need to be watched.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I would say you can't totally rule it out, Going to need to some others models jump on board with it, Nam would be an outlier right now but, This threat was meh a few days back and we see what has happned with it so it will need to be watched.. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam clown map....def a lot worse than 18z for central and eastern areas...tho still a little tail in Essex county, MA LOL, congrats Isle of Shoals. Nice tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is one of those rare events where Mitch in Lenox might grill Pete pretty good...not often that happens, but its usually these CAA backside events it happens...that or upslope events. I recall a good in January 2006...maybe Jan 15, 2006 where PSF and Mitch's area got over a foot but then just on the east side of the slopes it was more 3-6"...we had like 2.7" here after the flip. But west of the spine they really got the cold air in much better and it took its time getting over the crest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The front is really getting poorly defined I think. Places that have gone northerly are still hanging in the 50's. Push of cold air is very weak now and it is extremely shallow. Even here is it is a hair over 0C 850 when the better precip arrives at 0Z on the NAM, but I think we would flip fast. Places like ALB may waste precious qpf in a few more hours of rain so can't assume they are getting any major amount of snow right in the valley. I think a decent moderate snow max for the Helderbergs and northern Catskills... but the biggest dump in the Taconics, northern/western half of Berkshires (north of PSF maybe) and southern VT. Pete is still very close to cashing in and any tick east he is back in the heaviest. I'm guardedly optimistic. I should be able to add to the seasonal tally. Magic will be in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 To all the folks relying on the messenger last minute SE trend, it's too soon, that doesn't start showing up until we're in RUC range, I advise patience to all the weenies. Edit: to emphasize the sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam clown map....def a lot worse than 18z for central and eastern areas...tho still a little tail in Essex county, MA That map displays those oddities I discussed earlier on the NAM. It has the Berkshire snow, than nothing really near ORH where there is weaker VV and mid level RH...and then the comma head in ne mass and just off the NH coast. It might be a NAM quirky thing that fixes itself at 06z...so long that is does not go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That map displays those oddities I discussed earlier on the NAM. It has the Berkshire snow, than nothing really near ORH where there is weaker VV and mid level RH...and then the comma head in ne mass and just off the NH coast. It might be a NAM quirky thing that fixes itself at 06z...so long that is does not go west. Yes agreed. There is a lot of things to iron out with this system still. We have a long ways to go...anytime you get a vortmax that strong going south of us, there are some things to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 To all the folks relying on the messenger last minute SE trend, it's too soon, that doesn't start showing up until we're in RUC range, I advise patience to all the weenies. JP is going to jackpot, can clearly see that on the RUC. The sad part is no matter how many times the mets explain the differences between this season and the last several the weenies will still have their weenies out. Good luck on the SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 nam clowns lol, ok I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS is NW vs the 12z at least through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS is NW vs the 12z at least through 24. Yes, I think we might be seeing the NW trend continuing like we didn't want to see. Good for powderfreak....bad for ORH hills and the rest of the interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS is NW vs the 12z at least through 24. Slightly NW and warmer, Low going over scooter's head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I think we might be seeing the NW trend continuing like we didn't want to see. Good for powderfreak....bad for ORH hills and the rest of the interior SNE. Gradient winter. At least It's early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I think we might be seeing the NW trend continuing like we didn't want to see. Good for powderfreak....bad for ORH hills and the rest of the interior SNE. Below Slightly NW and warmer.. Really depressing if this is the pattern we have the next 4 weeks as I see nothing to stop this from recurring. Each cold push is muted even within a few days as we are finding here. The result is the cold air isn't even close as the storm approaches. By 30hrs the 0c at 8h has pushed almost into Canada up near Maine. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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