ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very very very warm outside of the Litchfield hills-Pioneer Valley-N ORH hills...SE CT kisses 40 at hr 57..ACK is 50 LOL probably a 3-6" deal for ORH hills, and 4-8" for NW Litchfield, southern Berks, and GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hmmm Can always count on you to provide a grid point sounding that to disprove my point... master of the skew-t and sultan of the sand bag. I'll wait til the BUFKIT soundings to come out to be more sure but at this point I think the NAM jackpot is deifnitely NW of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's the NAM at 48+ hours...I can't believe you guys have spent this much time talking about it and not discussing your lowland locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Nice shot of cold being dragged down into the central CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAm would change BOS for maybe an hour or two near 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's the NAM at 48+ hours...I can't believe you guys have spent this much time talking about it and not discussing your lowland locations. NAM is about all rain for me. Wagons north. Rooting for a powderfreak jackpot next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAm would change BOS for maybe an hour or two near 12z. Just 1 inch is all a Fella can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM has strong ageostrophic flow from the north. It's too bad the airmass aloft can't be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAm would change BOS for maybe an hour or two near 12z. That's where I was at 12z today. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM is about all rain for me. Wagons north. Rooting for a powderfreak jackpot next. >>>Ray"Whiffs for all"<<< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAm would change BOS for maybe an hour or two near 12z. Hey....1/2 per hour for 2 hours....all a brother needs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Even if a few inches fell for the 495 area, it would be gone by afternoon this run...gets us back into the 40s Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If this gradient verifies it would be the climo kick in the face, back to reality I've been waiting for. hi, i'm sleeping over at your house...or at least in your driveway with my tent...will shovel for hot cocoa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAm would change BOS for maybe an hour or two near 12z. Temps would be in the mid-upper 30's, no? Upper levels crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Can always count on you to provide a grid point sounding that to disprove my point... master of the skew-t and sultan of the sand bag. I'll wait til the BUFKIT soundings to come out to be more sure but at this point I think the NAM jackpot is deifnitely NW of ORH. WTF dude why do you make such silly posts without checking soundings first, this is well outside the Berks, Will is right isothermal dump at 54 for him. Good try to discredit me when you made the mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Can always count on you to provide a grid point sounding that to disprove my point... master of the skew-t and sultan of the sand bag. I'll wait til the BUFKIT soundings to come out to be more sure but at this point I think the NAM jackpot is deifnitely NW of ORH. Anyone with elevation and latitude stand the best chance with this system. I agree that the Berks up into S VT/NH will be the area that receives the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The s/w is falling apart, the system is opening up as it moves through. If that's actually what happens I see a shredded mess unable to deliver the dynamics needed to cool most of the lowlands during the peak of the storm. Terrible run IMO, but it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hey....1/2 per hour for 2 hours....all a brother needs.... That's if it stays where it is. It does seem to want to develop a comma head in the RH fields, despite the S/W sort of deamplifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Noooooo! Powderfreak will have many oppurtunities to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 what do you guys think for manchester nh? to me looks like a good hit of snow! Changes over from RA to SN sometime between 6z-9z Thu could be advisory to borderline warning criteria after that point verbatim, but snow on top of rain equals a lot of slop at first...especially if temps only fall to ~32F following the changeover. Lots of runs to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 WTF dude why do you make such silly posts without checking soundings first, this is well outside the Berks, Will is right isothermal dump at 54 for him. Good try to discredit me when you made the mistake. You didn't get what I was saying. Just because that sounding says it's for ORH doesn't mean it really is. A lot of times those are for the nearest grid point and not necessarily at the exact location. It's much better to wait for the BUFKIT soundings to see for sure. Those particular soundings (and Plymouth State's) aren't particularly accurate. And I was saying ORH is too warm to jackpot. That's fact. They start as rain then transition over. Anyway I don't really care what they get since if the NAM is right I'm just about all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hi! Well, it shows a heckuva lot of precip in some form. Question is...white or wet? white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anyone with elevation and latitude stand the best chance with this system. I agree that the Berks up into S VT/NH will be the area that receives the most snow. Well let's see what other models say later. Heading out with the dog for an hour on this mild evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The s/w is falling apart, the system is opening up as it moves through. If that's actually what happens I see a shredded mess unable to deliver the dynamics needed to cool most of the lowlands during the peak of the storm. Terrible run IMO, but it's the NAM. I do think the shortwave is potent enough to deliver a solid thump of dynamics. But without much of a comma head (as the mid level features are opened up) there won't be a ton to get excited about for places that start too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hi, i'm sleeping over at your house...or at least in your driveway with my tent...will shovel for hot cocoa... Occupy Dedrite's Driveway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I really like the timing for this event..even if this warmer solution played out...I'd probably still have a chance at a thumping from 10z to 15z that causes school to cancel. Anyway, I'd like the gfs to go west, but not much and the euro held serve. If the gfs goes way west or the euro moves west...we may be in trouble here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The s/w is falling apart, the system is opening up as it moves through. If that's actually what happens I see a shredded mess unable to deliver the dynamics needed to cool most of the lowlands during the peak of the storm. Terrible run IMO, but it's the NAM. No argument there. If we had normal temps preceding this event, we would do far better closer to the coast. I'm sure there will be flakes flying but nothing noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You didn't get what I was saying. Just because that sounding says it's for ORH doesn't mean it really is. A lot of times those are for the nearest grid point and not necessarily at the exact location. It's much better to wait for the BUFKIT soundings to see for sure. Those particular soundings (and Plymouth State's) aren't particularly accurate. And I was saying ORH is too warm to jackpot. That's fact. They start as rain then transition over. Anyway I don't really care what they get since if the NAM is right I'm just about all rain Actually the sounding is for Union Ct but OK, I check soundings before looking at graphics to make statements about rain/ snow lines. No doubt they start as rain I agree but why did you have to throw a dig in? I was just showing a sounding that looked isothermal well south of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You didn't get what I was saying. Just because that sounding says it's for ORH doesn't mean it really is. A lot of times those are for the nearest grid point and not necessarily at the exact location. It's much better to wait for the BUFKIT soundings to see for sure. Those particular soundings (and Plymouth State's) aren't particularly accurate. And I was saying ORH is too warm to jackpot. That's fact. They start as rain then transition over. Anyway I don't really care what they get since if the NAM is right I'm just about all rain I believe Plymouth uses the same amount of decimals as BUFKIT...hundredths. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The s/w is falling apart, the system is opening up as it moves through. If that's actually what happens I see a shredded mess unable to deliver the dynamics needed to cool most of the lowlands during the peak of the storm. Terrible run IMO, but it's the NAM. Yes. CP is fooked and will continue to be until we get rid of this crappola of a pattern and SST's are tamed. Our only hope is to get an intensifying vort max to go south of SNE by a good deal and deliver something from the pike south, where we get a good ageo flow and just enough moisture with a NW wind to give us substantial snow. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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