weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Someone in the northern Berkshires just gets walloped once that goes over to SN. That's RN to Tip's SN++. The 18z nam had that continuing into ORH and even east of that though...bad trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Greens get hammertime thumpin' goodness, Pete and MPM probably a little uneased at that run, and for me and the south coast peeps well. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam backed way off on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not good here, Low tracks thru DE Maine more of a NNE track then NE, About a 50 mile shift NW once it gets past CC Yeah that's a bummer but I'm with everyone in that it ticks SE again. SREFS went SE so that's a good sign for your area. No way we get that much QPF thrown this far NW without a closed system and the mid level winds are more southerly and southwesterly than anything. No big east wind anomalies to drill moisture this far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Major deformation band smokes Berks on this run. Big time QPF. Verbatim NAM profiles would suggest a lot of it is rain, but if dynamical cooling could do the trick and get us to SN a bit faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Verbatim..not a good run for ORH east but odd to see it changeover around the same time but with significantly less precip. I don't think it's odd at all and I doubt the juggling NW is over. Great storm for VT and NY, maybe parts of NH and ME, blows for everyone else. Will lock it in at 12z, but this is a nothing storm for most of SNE unless we like heavy rain changing to a colder rain and ending as a snow shower. That's JMHO based on trends and the NAM. Fully expect the GFS comes west now too. The longer the s/w hangs on the further north the storm will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah that's a bummer but I'm with everyone in that it ticks SE again. SREFS went SE so that's a good sign for your area. No way we get that much QPF thrown this far NW without a closed system and the mid level winds are more southerly and southwesterly than anything. No big east wind anomalies to drill moisture this far inland. Even without a mid level low closing off it looks like you guys still get an impressive thump of warm advection snows. If the NAM is right there's definitely a good bit of lift practically to BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The VM on the zoomed up images still is potent. The comma head is still through the roof in ern areas, but it's not nearly as extensive to the west like it was at 18z..probbaly at least owing to the speed of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SkierinVermont in Rangley gets absolutely destroyed. That'll let that area catch up to SNE for the October storm. Remember, the summits of a lot of the Greens, northern Whites, and western ME have had less snow than ORH so far this season all because of the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah that's a bummer but I'm with everyone in that it ticks SE again. SREFS went SE so that's a good sign for your area. No way we get that much QPF thrown this far NW without a closed system and the mid level winds are more southerly and southwesterly than anything. No big east wind anomalies to drill moisture this far inland. I agree, Who knows if its right, At this point i don't even trust what the GFS will have, Will wait and see what the Euro has at 0z, IF it holds or ticks SE that will be a good sign, We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That baby is hauling azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The VM on the zoomed up images still is potent. The comma head is still through the roof in ern areas, but it's not nearly as extensive to the west like it was at 18z..probbaly at least owing to the speed of the system. With a vortmax that strong...there is still a lot of potential...as we said before, small changes can mean big differences in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 that run kinda blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't think it's odd at all and I doubt the juggling NW is over. Great storm for VT and NY, maybe parts of NH and ME, blows for everyone else. Will lock it in at 12z, but this is a nothing storm for most of SNE unless we like heavy rain changing to a colder rain and ending as a snow shower. That's JMHO based on trends and the NAM. Fully expect the GFS comes west now too. The longer the s/w hangs on the further north the storm will get. Ok, thanks for the explanation. I'm not knowledgeable at all and make far too many posts when the models come out. That baby is hauling azz Yeah...might not be waking up for this one if it gets any earlier...or warmer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Even without a mid level low closing off it looks like you guys still get an impressive thump of warm advection snows. If the NAM is right there's definitely a good bit of lift practically to BTV. Yeah about .25-.5" QPF in this area... maybe we can get an advisory level event. I just feel like what Rick/Logan11 was mentioning that the past two winters of storms seem to tick SE at the last moment. You know, the Messenger effect where at least excuse imaginable it ends up 50 miles further east. Like Rick, we always seem to be on the western edge and it often gets pulled out from under us so I'm not ready to buy it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SkierinVermont in Rangley gets absolutely destroyed. That'll let that area catch up to SNE for the October storm. Remember, the summits of a lot of the Greens, northern Whites, and western ME have had less snow than ORH so far this season all because of the October storm. i think you are thinking of his twin brother, tubes from dobbs ferry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 With a vortmax that strong...there is still a lot of potential...as we said before, small changes can mean big differences in sensible wx. I mean, I can defintely see how it could go nuts for a few hours in some areas. The NW trend needs to stop. SREFs at least went southeast, but the euro later on will probably be more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah about .25-.5" QPF in this area... maybe we can get an advisory level event. I just feel like what Rick/Logan11 was mentioning that the past two winters of storms seem to tick SE at the last moment. You know, the Messenger effect where at least excuse imaginable it ends up 50 miles further east. Like Rick, we always seem to be on the western edge and it often gets pulled out from under us so I'm not ready to buy it yet. Somehow it's not in effect this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah about .25-.5" QPF in this area... maybe we can get an advisory level event. I just feel like what Rick/Logan11 was mentioning that the past two winters of storms seem to tick SE at the last moment. You know, the Messenger effect where at least excuse imaginable it ends up 50 miles further east. Like Rick, we always seem to be on the western edge and it often gets pulled out from under us so I'm not ready to buy it yet. The difference this time is that we have no block to our north...there is some temp ridging in the Davis straight which will help limit the NW movement...but its not like a big block or anything. Even in October, we hada pretty nice block up there which helped that storm tick back SE at the last second. The biggest variable in this system is the strength of the vortmax which can act to dig eastward if its really strong....it will initially help NW trend, but at some point if its strong enough, it will actually try and cutoff from the flow and go eastward a bit on its own....that is the biggest question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looking at those maps and soundings, I think the "warmer" look also has to do with the dryslot appearance with the lack of deep RH. It could be caused by the NAM depiction of convection in ern mass, but sometimes the NAM does screwy things when you have a convective look to it. It could be right, but I think that is causing part of the problem. You can see it on the soundings too. It's dry above 650mb in the same areas that were saturated on the 18z run. Anyways, something I noticed fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i think you are thinking of his twin brother, tubes from dobbs ferry No zucker is in Rindge, NH...skierinVT is in Rangley ME this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wow the more I look at that it is very warm... we even start off as rain up here. You can tell that stationary boundary is not moving anywhere quickly. 24 hours ago, we were supposed to be below freezing at the summits at this time with a strong NW wind bringing the cold air southeastward. Now H85s don't even fall till 21z or 00z tomorrow evening... a full 24 hour delay from earlier progs. The good station to watch will be the summit of Mansfield for that H85 freezing line. Its still 37F up at 4,000ft and the wind is only "gusting" to 9mph. It was dead calm up there all day today which is really rare... shows just how weak the CAA is and we'll have to wait for the low to pass and dynamically cool us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Soundings are interesting in se mass, because at 09z it cools to 0c at 950-925mb or so, but there is a big warm layer at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No zucker is in Rindge, NH...skierinVT is in Rangley ME this winter. oh ok. LOL. the twins are hard to distinguish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wow the more I look at that it is very warm... we even start off as rain up here. You can tell that stationary boundary is not moving anywhere quickly. 24 hours ago, we were supposed to be below freezing at the summits at this time with a strong NW wind bringing the cold air southeastward. Now H85s don't even fall till 21z or 00z tomorrow evening... a full 24 hour delay from earlier progs. The good station to watch will be the summit of Mansfield for that H85 freezing line. Its still 37F up at 4,000ft and the wind is only "gusting" to 9mph. It was dead calm up there all day today which is really rare... shows just how weak the CAA is and we'll have to wait for the low to pass and dynamically cool us. Yeah agree, let's not sugar coat it. This run took a tenous situation and made it a bad situation. It's just one model and one run, but I don't like the move at all and have a hard time believing it won't just continue and eventually this is a NY and northern NE area only event. I mean what's going to move it back SE the non existent blocking/high pressure/cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The difference this time is that we have no block to our north...there is some temp ridging in the Davis straight which will help limit the NW movement...but its not like a big block or anything. Even in October, we hada pretty nice block up there which helped that storm tick back SE at the last second. The biggest variable in this system is the strength of the vortmax which can act to dig eastward if its really strong....it will initially help NW trend, but at some point if its strong enough, it will actually try and cutoff from the flow and go eastward a bit on its own....that is the biggest question mark. Thanks for the explanation, Will. I was just basing that off past experience as I'm sure everyone can attest the trend over the past two winters has been an eastward correction in the last 24 hours. There's always that NW shift it seems at 36-60 hours lead time, only to see it go back east after that. But then yeah, we are in a pattern that is not like the last two winters. If this were last winter, this would be a quick hitting MECS for pretty much all of SNE and this would find a way to track just right for CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looking at those maps and soundings, I think the "warmer" look also has to do with the dryslot appearance with the lack of deep RH. It could be caused by the NAM depiction of convection in ern mass, but sometimes the NAM does screwy things when you have a convective look to it. It could be right, but I think that is causing part of the problem. You can see it on the soundings too. It's dry above 650mb in the same areas that were saturated on the 18z run. Anyways, something I noticed fwiw. It may be something that is corrected on the next run, so long as it isn't going over Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah agree, let's not sugar coat it. This run took a tenous situation and made it a bad situation. It's just one model and one run, but I don't like the move at all and have a hard time believing it won't just continue and eventually this is a NY and northern NE area only event. I mean what's going to move it back SE the non existent blocking/high pressure/cold air? I guess if you can't find a reason for this to go SE, maybe it won't this time, lol. You've always got a reason for a storm to go further east... c'mon messenger, don't let us down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thanks for the explanation, Will. I was just basing that off past experience as I'm sure everyone can attest the trend over the past two winters has been an eastward correction in the last 24 hours. There's always that NW shift it seems at 36-60 hours lead time, only to see it go back east after that. But then yeah, we are in a pattern that is not like the last two winters. If this were last winter, this would be a quick hitting MECS for pretty much all of SNE and this would find a way to track just right for CT and MA. And it makes sense when you think about the common feature to our north over those two winters. That's why we were saying this guy has nothing really in its way of going NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No zucker is in Rindge, NH...skierinVT is in Rangley ME this winter. This is a nice run for Rindge; we get like .5" QPF from the comma head while areas to the south and east dryslot a lot as the low hauls past. It still looks a bit marginal for the Monadnocks but I'm getting a feeling we see a nice thump of +SN Thursday morning, which is hard to believe given it's still 55F here. Huge improvement for Rangley which receives far more QPF on the 0z NAM than in earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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