ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That is true. I mean...I'm probably going to wake up at 4am on Thursday to see what is in all likely hood going to be 1 or 2" of snow...but the changeover should be impressive. I don't think I'd forecast more than 3" at this point either, but that doesn't mean that a possible 3-6" is not in the back of their heads for this area. There's certainly some bust potential with the end of this system. It could also trend more NW and give very little. Still up in the air which stinks from a forecasting perspective but at least it adds an element of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Seems calm.... winds calm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No school Foster/Gloucester I hated Salty Brine growing up, them arseholes never went to school. Living in SW RI I had to listen to that dozens of times. Many a day I took the half hour ride north to go sledding, skiing in Foster while SWRI basked in brown grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 srefs held serve, or went slightly se, but their performance has been terrible lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Seems calm.... The stronger the lead wave is the better for us but I am not seeing the push I need. Rain to weenie flakes for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREFs cooled a tick..but hard to say how much is timing and how much is real cooling....we'll see with the snow probs in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't think I'd forecast more than 3" at this point either, but that doesn't mean that a possible 3-6" is not in the back of their heads for this area. There's certainly some bust potential with the end of this system. It could also trend more NW and give very little. Still up in the air which stinks from a forecasting perspective but at least it adds an element of excitement. Yup should be fun to track. Just wish I didn't have all the stuff I have on Thursday...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It may go southeast ..... The last few years I have had very little luck with coastal storms that are first modeled to be a fringe here. Numerous times they have seemed to trend west only to end up being a fringe after all. This time there is a +NAO so maybe it's different. We'll see. The stronger the lead wave is the better for us but I am not seeing the push I need. Rain to weenie flakes for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREFs are a bit warmer though. Might mean a few amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREFs cooled a tick..but hard to say how much is timing and how much is real cooling....we'll see with the snow probs in a bit. SREFs are a bit warmer though. Might mean a few amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREFs are a bit warmer though. Might mean a few amped up members. My mistake, compared the wrong ones. They did cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREFs are a bit warmer though. Might mean a few amped up members. I was comparing 850 temps at 09z Thu and the 21z run looked cooler than 15z. 0C line was nearly over ORH on the new run while it was back in W MA on the 15z run...but again, not sure how much of this has to do with timing. We'll know when the snow probs come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 My bad. lol, Out of practice......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 lol, Out of practice......... The eyes grow tired this time of night when you have a 6am shift. Anyways, looking at H5 on the SREFs, this run may be slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As expected we are in for a delightful evening, the furthest se srefs have gone a bit further se and cooled...........this is going to be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The eyes grow tired this time of night when you have a 6am shift. Anyways, looking at H5 on the SREFs, this run may be slightly faster. long day for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As expected we are in for a delightful evening, the furthest se srefs have gone a bit further se and cooled...........this is going to be great! LOL its the SREFS...they've been behind the 8 ball since the beginning lol, but as I've been saying along with some others, its definitely going to atleast tick SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LOL its the SREFS...they've been behind the 8 ball since the beginning lol, but as I've been saying along with some others, its definitely going to atleast tick SE Since the beginning? Its useful range started earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00z nam through 15hr looks about the same as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREF snow probs are out and they did indeed bring them a bit SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM looks like the vortmax is a little north of the 18z run at hr 24. Tough to tell what it means, but it might be a little closer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 through 27, elongated 1000mb LP near Cape may, NJ...raining everywhere, even NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM looks like the vortmax is a little north of the 18z run at hr 24. Tough to tell what it means, but it might be a little closer this run. Yes and that is not good. We need the vortmax to make sure it tracks S of us...it probably still will on this run, but you worry about it continuing to tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 through 27, elongated 1000mb LP near Cape may, NJ...raining everywhere, even NNE Shocking that with no blocking or high pressure it's going further NW. Heavy heavy disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes and that is not good. We need the vortmax to make sure it tracks S of us...it probably still will on this run, but you worry about it continuing to tick north. Yeah this run will be warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 SREF snow probs are out and they did indeed bring them a bit SE. Cool... 2 or 3" seems reasonable for my hacienda I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 through 30,996 low over montauk pt...snowing from n adams,ma to springfield, vt to plymouth,nh north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It actually looks like the NAM is just a bit faster than 18z...but not much different in actual placement....we'll see in a few more frames...but it looks like maybe an hour or two faster. I'm looking at the changeover down in MD and it looks faster on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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