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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Moving too fast I think but we'll see what the 12z suite says. Not convinced the CCB isn't a shredded mess in later runs or further NW.

Tentative first call Boston a trace, Worcester 1/2 to 1" Tolland Springs 1/2 to 1", Providence trace, me flurries, you flurries, MRG gets buried up to his chest, Sunday River 6-12"

Well unless guidance crokes, I think it will have a good CCB, but the placement of it is the bigger question mark...at least imho.

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I was thinking about that. Some of the snow algorithms have a weenie extension to the ENE into NE Mass. The NAM from 12z was showing that too.

The 18z NAM went insane over E MA...it showed like 5-7" over all of BOS metro and through interior SE MA, lol. I think its overdone, but it does show the potential we are talking about for a wild 3 hours or so.

Its always tough to get blasted by a CCB tail like that but if we are looking for the parameters in place, this system does have a lot of them...we just need the tracking vortmax to stay south. 12/9/05 is always the benchmark that probably won't be matched for a long time, but many areas had 10-12" of snow in 3 hours at the end over E MA. Even a third of that would be pretty high impact in that amount of time.

Hopefully it keeps hammering that idea as we get closer. In a sense, those 3-4 hour +SN bombs can be more fun than a dragged out 8 hours of moderate snow that might give you more...but its not as exciting meteorologically.

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The 18z NAM went insane over E MA...it showed like 5-7" over all of BOS metro and through interior SE MA, lol. I think its overdone, but it does show the potential we are talking about for a wild 3 hours or so.

Its always tough to get blasted by a CCB tail like that but if we are looking for the parameters in place, this system does have a lot of them...we just need the tracking vortmax to stay south. 12/9/05 is always the benchmark that probably won't be matched for a long time, but many areas had 10-12" of snow in 3 hours at the end over E MA. Even a third of that would be pretty high impact in that amount of time.

Hopefully it keeps hammering that idea as we get closer. In a sense, those 3-4 hour +SN bombs can be more fun than a dragged out 8 hours of moderate snow that might give you more...but its not as exciting meteorologically.

Tip?

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The 18z NAM went insane over E MA...it showed like 5-7" over all of BOS metro and through interior SE MA, lol. I think its overdone, but it does show the potential we are talking about for a wild 3 hours or so.

Its always tough to get blasted by a CCB tail like that but if we are looking for the parameters in place, this system does have a lot of them...we just need the tracking vortmax to stay south. 12/9/05 is always the benchmark that probably won't be matched for a long time, but many areas had 10-12" of snow in 3 hours at the end over E MA. Even a third of that would be pretty high impact in that amount of time.

Hopefully it keeps hammering that idea as we get closer. In a sense, those 3-4 hour +SN bombs can be more fun than a dragged out 8 hours of moderate snow that might give you more...but its not as exciting meteorologically.

Will i noticed it in the algorithm too but wasn't sure if it was a mistake lol...

post-2999-0-31455200-1323218293.gif

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We know...it won't be a big deal for us (meaning you or I), but we haven't had crap for so long. I'm not gonna see much at all, but this could have a few tricks for some. I know most people only care about their backyards, but I find these storms pretty cool from a met standpoint.

Absolutely and yet another learning experience. Been a while since I have witnessed a 40 + degree airmass get wiped out in seconds. I am too far south for that this time but you guys in EMA might get it.

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Absolutely and yet another learning experience. Been a while since I have witnessed a 40 + degree airmass get wiped out in seconds. I am too far south for that this time but you guys in EMA might get it.

If I can get some sort of a changeover, I think you can too, especially if it wraps up like shown.

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If I can get some sort of a changeover, I think you can too, especially if it wraps up like shown.

I'd def look out for a potential stinger on the CCB tail in E MA...it might fail like it did in the Oct storm...but it def could produce and bust some forecasts as well. Its an interesting part of this storm.

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Greens are going to get destroyed, powderfreak included, ski season has started!

Powderfreak is living on the edge this storm...he might get into the good stuff but might not...the non-RGEM guidance doesn't give much to N VT...but C VT might get crushed. Its a tough forecast there.

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I'd def look out for a potential stinger on the CCB tail in E MA...it might fail like it did in the Oct storm...but it def could produce and bust some forecasts as well. Its an interesting part of this storm.

If the guidance is anywhere close to being right, I think this has a better shot than that did.

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Even though you never took the bet I owe you a black. If Will shows up I can collect on winning the snowfall contest last year.

I think Jerry beat you by a bit...you came in 2nd...maybe I got that mixed up. I'll have to go back and add the errors.

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Powderfreak is living on the edge this storm...he might get into the good stuff but might not...the non-RGEM guidance doesn't give much to N VT...but C VT might get crushed. Its a tough forecast there.

I think in the end he gets 3-6 4-8 that was my call this morning.

and for the rest of us..........

hpn 2"

bdr 1.2"

bdl 3.1"

orh 4.4"

bos 2.7"

Pete 7.4"

MPM 6.4"

Mt Tolland 3.1"

Taunton 1.8"

Mooooosup 2.3"

Hunchback Dave 5.0"

kgay3.6"

messycweat .8"

Philthethrill .4"

weenieologist 5.1"

squirrels 2.9"

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OT, but man it is/was foggy here earlier this evening. Had to drive at a snail's pace until I descended 200'. It was cleared out there, but man, as thick a fog as I've ever been in. My 6-year old said it looked like a dust-storm. And she would know how?????

Raising a weenie the way it should be, they get that by Osmosis. My 10 year old grandson who lives with me said tonight, Poppa is it going to snow this week? it's been very warm for a long time it's time for the weather to change.
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Raising a weenie the way it should be, they get that by Osmosis. My 10 year old grandson who lives with me said tonight, Poppa is it going to snow this week? it's been very warm for a long time it's time for the weather to change.

The kids at school are so depressed by this wx... I mentioned a chance today and they got wound up...lol the other teachers hate me

(I told them only to expect an inch or 2)

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I think in the end he gets 3-6 4-8 that was my call this morning.

and for the rest of us..........

hpn 2"

bdr 1.2"

bdl 3.1"

orh 4.4"

bos 2.7"

Pete 7.4"

MPM 6.4"

Mt Tolland 3.1"

Taunton 1.8"

Mooooosup 2.3"

Hunchback Dave 5.0"

kgay3.6"

messycweat .8"

Philthethrill .4"

weenieologist 5.1"

squirrels 2.9"

Damn very bullish for me. I figured weenie flakes as the best dynamics scream to my North.

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