ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 amazing the difference an hour or three is going to make in this thing. Could definitely be the difference between someone getting a slushy coating or 4-5". Unless the guidance is totally off, it looks like we should be under very heavy precip around the changeover time...so a couple hour difference could make for a huge change in snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is it ok for us to troll other regional threads? You live in your own far distant, elevated region... So you are trolling us flatlanders 4-8" for you would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is the 18z NAM sim radar for 09z tomorrow night. Pretty impressive and it shows the potential for a 3 hour burst. Hmm wonder when I can lock in 3-6 for my parents house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the mean looks like there must be some westward tucked-in members though, right? especially with the big spacing in the LP isobars must suggest high uncertainty too...? I honestly don't think it could blossom in time to throw back moisture. The trough isn't sharp enough to really ignite cyclogenesis and throw moisture back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I honestly don't think it could blossom in time to throw back moisture. The trough isn't sharp enough to really ignite cyclogenesis and throw moisture back. right, I guess that's the clear issue...just looking for stuff to track now that this one's mostly off the table for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting developments. I'm not expecting much here in Lowell, but I think it will be a whole different story up at my cabin in the white mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 free camping in Franconia Notch State park, anyone want to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You can certainly troll the Upstate thread if you want. Not that much happens over there. LOL It has awoken a bit today...as in maybe 2 posts per hour which beats 2 posts per day..... Someone just posted a cool RGEM snowfall map. Is it ok for us to troll other regional threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS clown map...it shows accumulating snow all the way to the coast around BOS like the NAM did...it will be interesting to see what happens in that 3-4 hour window early Thu morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any ideas on a timeframe on snow? Are we talking like 4:00am or are we talking 8:00 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If we indeed see these VVs realized, the changeover line could be closer to the 850 -1C line or so if you want to get picky. Just kind of looking at the soundings on the NAM...there is a slight warm pocket near 800mb to 725mb or so. It isn't strong, but it still requires some work to cool. Those VVs progged could do it though. So since we all like to look at the 850 maps..a ball park guess seems to be the -1C or maybe even closer to -2c. It's defintely a bit east of the 850-700 critical thickness line if any people are checking. But it's easy to see how there could be a big bust. If it really rips in a narrow area, then it will flash over and wipe out the +1C layer real quick. However if the lift isn't as strong, then it will take longer to switch over and obviously lower amounts will happen. So long as this doesn't move nw, you would think the risk could be more to a quicker flashover in the higher terrain...but there are a few more runs and solutions that need to be seen I think, in order to figure that out. Big bust potential, but one that might be fun to watch play out...as long as the surface low doesn't move into PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any ideas on a timeframe on snow? Are we talking like 4:00am or are we talking 8:00 am? Probably flips to snow around 1am near polar bear Pete and by about 4am for ORH...similar there. By 5-6am for BOS...its all over by 7-8am except maybe holding on slightly longer near BOS or the north shore...but i think 12z is when its all done for just about everyone. Maybe 13z or so for extreme E/NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Probably flips to snow around 1am near polar bear Pete and by about 4am for ORH...similar there. By 5-6am for BOS...its all over by 7-8am except maybe holding on slightly longer near BOS or the north shore...but i think 12z is when its all done for just about everyone. So I guess we just need to hope for an earlier changeover if we want to sneak into the 3-4 or 5 inch range. My gut tells me this gets tugged east a bit last minute sort of like the Halloween storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is 12z NAM sim radar...by 15z is way long gone, so its really hauling...prob another hour or so in BOS based on this shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You can certainly troll the Upstate thread if you want. Not that much happens over there. LOL It has awoken a bit today...as in maybe 2 posts per hour which beats 2 posts per day..... Someone just posted a cool RGEM snowfall map. LOL, I just think it's a double standard to allow troll posts from the usual suspects in our threads yet if we were to troll in their threads swift justice would sweep in and impale us.lol I like the upstate thread as sometimes I feel more part of that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm really hoping this snow will stay around until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That's pretty classic on the sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm really hoping this snow will stay around until Christmas. We know...it won't be a big deal for us (meaning you or I), but we haven't had crap for so long. I'm not gonna see much at all, but this could have a few tricks for some. I know most people only care about their backyards, but I find these storms pretty cool from a met standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 So I guess we just need to hope for an earlier changeover if we want to sneak into the 3-4 or 5 inch range. My gut tells me this gets tugged east a bit last minute sort of like the Halloween storm did. I agree100% kevin, for a couple reasons, I believe the first wave will be stronger pulling some colder air down as it passes off to the northeast also driving the baroclinic zone east a bit. Also, temps out by the gulf stream near the benchmark are en fuego, I think LP will be drawn closer to this energy source. How many times have we seen lp tick east at the last minute, I think this passes 50 miles east of the cape which will make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That's pretty classic on the sim radar. The vortmax is sick...as long as we keep it underneath SNE, it can rain for quite a while but we'd still eventually flip to a blinding S+ at some point with that track...we just need to make sure that vortmax isn't riding over my head by the time verification comes around. Hopefully we see the vortmax trend deeper in a touch south to prolong any shot at +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would think a place like Mt snow would be awesome for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Radar over eastern mass early Thursday morning could be special, could be one of those Foxboro thumpers for a couple hours with silver dollar parachutes covering the landscape like shaving cream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ray might actually cash in on the developing CCB tail as it tries to escape NE..we'll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any ideas on a timeframe on snow? Are we talking like 4:00am or are we talking 8:00 am? If you're waiting until 8:00a.m., you've got a washout. It'll be done by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is 12z NAM sim radar...by 15z is way long gone, so its really hauling...prob another hour or so in BOS based on this shot This is a sexy image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It might a little, but unlike the many fringe systems of the last two years, this one is occurring in a +NAO with no blocking. In the former cases the models had errant runs where they teased us here in the deep interior with heavier snow, but the mother block to the Northeast always had the last laugh and acted as the suppressor. Either way it is bombing as it moves to Cape Cod or off BOS, and so the comma head will have to sweep through with a switch to +SN at least as far as ORH. It may be brief but it doesn't have to last long if it is snowing at 2 or 3 inches per hour. very good points. i love rain to snow sudden changeovers, as long as the snow lasts as you say 2+ hours. as long as you get S+ and a good accumulation, can be very dramatic and satisfying. i chased an event like that you may remember, in ottawa last march. it was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ray might actually cash in on the developing CCB tail as it tries to escape NE..we'll have to watch that. I was thinking about that. Some of the snow algorithms have a weenie extension to the ENE into NE Mass. The NAM from 12z was showing that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We know...it won't be a big deal for us (meaning you or I), but we haven't had crap for so long. I'm not gonna see much at all, but this could have a few tricks for some. I know most people only care about their backyards, but I find these storms pretty cool from a met standpoint. Moving too fast I think but we'll see what the 12z suite says. Not convinced the CCB isn't a shredded mess in later runs or further NW. Tentative first call Boston a trace, Worcester 1/2 to 1" Tolland Springs 1/2 to 1", Providence trace, me flurries, you flurries, MRG gets buried up to his chest, Sunday River 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'll consider it a win if I can flash over to pancake aggregates at this point..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would think a place like Mt snow would be awesome for this. 30 miles away. So close, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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