dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 9:30 AM meeting in BGR - commute from the Farmington area ought to be fun. What a mess that will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The word from BOX: * A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON WED BRINGING ACCUMULATION SNOW OF 1-4 INCHES TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. * VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WITH QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY * HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Congrats: To the rest of us, meh (according to this map). I don't even warrant the "meh" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah this system is a bit more multi-faceted than just whether it snows or not; although clearly few care. But there could be an isollobaric wind pulse on the back side of this as rapid deepening rates ensue while the low pulls away. Also, this run has a stronger vorticity maximum and more negative tilt in the TV valley. This might carry along with it a whopper -EPV saturation/ excessive UVM core. Trop. folding would enter the concern package should that happen. If so, someone gets abrupt wind like a p-wave off a bomb blast ...isollobaric wind trajectories aside. I recall a discussion with a college prof/mentor back in the day... These mid to late autumns with coastal dynamic frequencies are usually a troubling signs for immediate ensuing winters. Understood regaring best track anticipation being an ALB, but suggest maintaining vigil for possibel SE tick. I don't believe any farther W is likely given the large scale influences on this impulse movability within the field. There is also a low probability that it gets so intense in the eastern TV while turning negative that it closes off temporarilty and that would actually assist it turning more right as it neareed the MA believe it or not - that would change the landscape of the outcome a bit. Again ...low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah this system is a bit more multi-faceted than just whether it snows or not; although clearly few care. But there could be an isollobaric wind pulse on the back side of this as rapid deepening rates ensue while the low pulls away. Also, this run has a stronger vorticity maximum and more negative tilt in the TV valley. This might carry along with it a whopper -EPV saturation/ excessive UVM core. Trop. folding would enter the concern package should that happen. If so, someone gets abrupt wind like a p-wave off a bomb blast ...isollobaric wind trajectories aside. I recall a discussion with a college prof/mentor back in the day... These mid to late autumns with coastal dynamic frequencies are usually a good sign for immediate ensuing winters. I think there is some signals of a fold as well...although I want to caution people we are not saying 12/9/05 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Congrats: Rick Dendrite PF Eric Jeff To the rest of us, meh (according to this map). Thanks Mike, We will see how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yea, well.....modelology dictated that this would not tuck inland....meterology implied that it very well may. Thanks for the lesson, champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think there is some signals of a fold as well...although I want to caution people we are not saying 12/9/05 type stuff. that day sits on its own. period. hate that analogy...not because you can't compare the two from a meteorological perspective but because the sensible weather impact of 12/9/05 is off-the-charts type stuff. that was a once-in-a-lifetime type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I won't clutter things up by posting it, but the BOX AFD is pretty good. Looks likey they expect at least a coating for MUCH of the area. And who knows, perhaps enough for a snow day in GC. That said, Tolland is much more likely to close than Mohawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I hate it when a met has the same thought as me and it's not one of optimism. For MBY, I suppose being further north might help me a smidge with the cold air given the orientation of the temp gradiant. But, nothing of any significance. We could really use a 30 mile shift to really lighten up the mood in GC. It could still happen. Sometimes the models trend too far NW in this timeframe only to tick SE slightly at the end. If 00Z suite comes in looking like the previous runs, then I'm not optimistic. However, given the dynamic nature of this system, I'm not sure this will happen. Our other hope is if the dynamics from this storm can actually find a way to help us. Strong UVVs in this storm could result in enough dynamical cooling to chill the column to +SN a bit sooner than guidance would indicate. This happened in parts of CT and the NY metro during the 10/29 event. This is a very longitude dependent deal. Latitude won't help as much as longitude as during a SWFE. It may snow in DC before it does here. I will probably change over a bit earlier than Pete does 20 miles directly to my E as the cold air will probably drain onto the west slope a bit quicker than it does on the east slope. The 850 zero line getting stuck near ALB is not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Has anyone commented on the 12z euro ENS? Haven't seen anything about them. Sorry if someone has posted info about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It looks like the best shot for advisory or better snows is from a 3-4 hour burst of +SN at the end of this system. You think you and I can grab a couple inches of should I just grab a couple straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I hate it when a met has the same thought as me and it's not one of optimism. For MBY, I suppose being further north might help me a smidge with the cold air given the orientation of the temp gradiant. But, nothing of any significance. We could really use a 30 mile shift to really lighten up the mood in GC. Don't break form, worry about QPF, maybe the dryslot will get us.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think there is some signals of a fold as well...although I want to caution people we are not saying 12/9/05 type stuff. Look for concentric banding of intense DBZ/relative lightness in couplets amid the comma head - if that does get underway. That type of violent upward motioin usually instigates a compensating, non-propagating gravity wave phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Has anyone commented on the 12z euro ENS? Haven't seen anything about them. Sorry if someone has posted info about them. Maybe a tick warmer than the op? Other than that it's close to a carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Maybe a tick warmer than the op? Other than that it's close to a carbon copy. With mslp placement and qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You think you and I can grab a couple inches of should I just grab a couple straws? literally an hour or two difference will be pretty substantial out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 With mslp placement and qpf? yes and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It could still happen. Sometimes the models trend too far NW in this timeframe only to tick SE slightly at the end. If 00Z suite comes in looking like the previous runs, then I'm not optimistic. However, given the dynamic nature of this system, I'm not sure this will happen. Our other hope is if the dynamics from this storm can actually find a way to help us. Strong UVVs in this storm could result in enough dynamical cooling to chill the column to +SN a bit sooner than guidance would indicate. This happened in parts of CT and the NY metro during the 10/29 event. This is a very longitude dependent deal. Latitude won't help as much as longitude as during a SWFE. It may snow in DC before it does here. I will probably change over a bit earlier than Pete does 20 miles directly to my E as the cold air will probably drain onto the west slope a bit quicker than it does on the east slope. The 850 zero line getting stuck near ALB is not good... I hate those slow moving lines! My orientation comment was tied to the look of the 850 line which SW-NE. Again, in the scheme of things, means little. Pete and I are nearly N/S of each other (he may be .1* west), so I expect the same type of window from your observaton to the changeover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Don't break form, worry about QPF, maybe the dryslot will get us.lol I was just thinking how I haven't been bitching about qpf. I'll start 'woe is me' about the column instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 that day sits on its own. period. hate that analogy...not because you can't compare the two from a meteorological perspective but because the sensible weather impact of 12/9/05 is off-the-charts type stuff. that was a once-in-a-lifetime type of event. Ehhhh, ...not so sure about that. I've seen similar events in my life, few of them - freak combinations of intensities. You know... there is a phenomenon in wave physics called rogue wave theory. Basically as you know, a few waves positively interfere such that one mammoth result. Sometimes these storm system can be like metaphors for the same thing. They just just get a steroid shot and go ballistic. In 1978 I saw 90mph wind gusts and 33" of snow across 3 days. In 1992, I witnessed 1 10 second changeover from rain to white out conditions that heralded in 15" of snow. In 1997 I saw 17" of snow fall, 12 of which fell in about 2.5 hours. I hear you on the wind back in '05, but it isn't as hard to get a folder as one may think. It'll be ineresting to see what this one can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yes and yes Wow, thats a serious combo. The EURO and its ensembles and the gfs and its ensebles vs the nam and srefs. who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Albany weighs in: SOME QPF MAY FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX...WITH PERHAPS A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 IN/HR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY S AND E OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS. CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION...IT APPEARS 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SEEMS LIKELY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE N/W...WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ACROSS SARATOGA COUNTY...AND PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH CLOSER TO LAKE GEORGE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WEST/CENTRAL MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL MAY BE ADJUSTED...AND CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESP ON THE N/W SIDE OF THE PRECIP...WHICH INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION EXTENDING INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yes and yes We have a winner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It could still happen. Sometimes the models trend too far NW in this timeframe only to tick SE slightly at the end. If 00Z suite comes in looking like the previous runs, then I'm not optimistic. However, given the dynamic nature of this system, I'm not sure this will happen. Our other hope is if the dynamics from this storm can actually find a way to help us. Strong UVVs in this storm could result in enough dynamical cooling to chill the column to +SN a bit sooner than guidance would indicate. This happened in parts of CT and the NY metro during the 10/29 event. This is a very longitude dependent deal. Latitude won't help as much as longitude as during a SWFE. It may snow in DC before it does here. I will probably change over a bit earlier than Pete does 20 miles directly to my E as the cold air will probably drain onto the west slope a bit quicker than it does on the east slope. The 850 zero line getting stuck near ALB is not good... I think it was the 12/21/09 storm that had the NAM crush us for a run late in the game, heavy accumulations were forecast, bust. It went a bit too far NW. Not saying the set-up is the same but that it does in fact happen. Either way, it does look like we're in line for a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well, Lets see if 12z GFS was on crack, I would like to see the 18z GFS start trending SE, Of where 12z was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ehhhh, ...not so sure about that. I've seen similar events in my life, few of them - freak combinations of intensities. You know... there is a phenomenon in wave physics called rogue wave theory. Basically as you know, a few waves positively interfere such that one mammoth result. Sometimes these storm system can be like metaphors for the same thing. They just just get a steroid shot and go ballistic. In 1978 I saw 90mph wind gusts and 33" of snow across 3 days. In 1992, I witnessed 1 10 second changeover from rain to white out conditions that heralded in 15" of snow. In 1997 I saw 17" of snow fall, 12 of which fell in about 2.5 hours. I hear you on the wind back in '05, but it isn't as hard to get a folder as one may think. It'll be ineresting to see what this one can do. yeah i know it's not impossible to get a fold. i feel like we see hints of them fairly often - couple times a fall/winter maybe we might pay attention to the *possibility* i just know for me, in my 33 years of life - of which i feel about 27 i have a pretty good memory - that 30 minutes of weather on 12/9/05 was the most impressive thing i have ever seen. hands down. it's like the cosmos aligned perfectly and rewarded me for being a weather nut for my entire life. i know there will be other good events in the future - but i never expect to see that un"fold" again. see what i did there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Albany weighs in: SOME QPF MAY FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX...WITH PERHAPS A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 IN/HR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY S AND E OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. Box seems to concur. AMOUNTS... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WITH HOW QUICK THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AND HOW FAST WILL THE COLD AIR USHER IN...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES PROB 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND NEW HAMPSHIRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z gfs at 24hr agrees with the nam in having the more impressive system for during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z GFS looks pretty amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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