CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Who's to say it couldn't tick west a bit more, but that is a dynamic system any way you cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Still over 24 hrs out for the second wave, 30-50 mile jog east in track could make the world of difference for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Berkshires have the best shot, but it looks like at least the N half of ORH county has a solid shot at advisory snow. It will be close but it does look like it could really rip for about 3 or 4 hours. Looks like I'll be setting the alarm for 4am on Thursday morning, lol. Even if it doesn't change over for long here its going to be fun imo to watch the snow line move east and to watch temps crash. Timing is pretty good for a delay for me, too if things played out like the nam and the 00z ticked slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Who's to say it couldn't tick west a bit more, but that is a dynamic system any way you cut it. Yeah it def could still tick west some...I think ideally we'd want the system to be slightly deeper and dig a backhoe eastward a bit before riding up the coast...that would put us under the best 5h height core and give us a dynamic 3-5 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very brief Jerry, but look at this comma head. That could surprise someone with VVs like that. I could see Kevin or Will getting pasted for a couple of hours...IF that verified. These back end comma heads seem to be spurious sometimes, at least it was with the Oct snow-bomb, but it's probably the only shot for eastern areas. This NAM run looks to me to be about as spun up as it can be I think, I'd be surprised if it cuts right overhead of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah it def could still tick west some...I think ideally we'd want the system to be slightly deeper and dig a backhoe eastward a bit before riding up the coast...that would put us under the best 5h height core and give us a dynamic 3-5 hour period. The GFS gave Phil a mini December '05...lol. Look at HYA sounding at 12z Thursday and 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 These back end comma heads seem to be spurious sometimes, at least it was with the Oct snow-bomb, but it's probably the only shot for eastern areas. This NAM run looks to me to be about as spun up as it can be I think, I'd be surprised if it cuts right overhead of BOS. I'm not holding out much for you and I...maybe a brief 30 min window of snow or something if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like between 12-15z up here thurs is when we will see the best snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM brings the good to eastern NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It would take 2"+ down and snowing steadily at 6am. They have students from all over so they are pretty conscientious with their decisions to close. What dept. is she in? She's teaching Sociology there as an adjunct. Night class tonight, so I get to be Mr. Mom. Meanwhile, it's a shame we can't get that colder air in earlier. I need to do some checking of the column above the Pit. Looks like a warning *could* verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS gave Phil a mini December '05...lol. Look at HYA sounding at 12z Thursday and 15z. yeah saw that earlier...LOL...nothing like 60-70 knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller This is the link i use.. Thanks--I'm trying to find one that allows you to plug in lat/long. It worked great for me for Rocktober. 54.4/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yeah saw that earlier...LOL...nothing like 60-70 knot gusts. GFS always loves to do that like 48 hrs out. But I wouldn't doubt some strong backside winds with this. It deepens pretty quickly with a big downward vertical component possible after the H5 low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take 3-4" and run at this point...especially if it's a dynamic flip of a finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think if there's something the NAM is going to get right here is the really wrapped up nature of this storm. This is going to be a tiny storm and really tightly wound. I wouldn't be surprised if that gradient up north is real. The track of this system is definitely not set in stone, so the key features to watch is the speed and southeastward extent of the polar vortex because its going to act as a kicker and also the speed of the shortwave that is producing this snowstorm. Tomorrow's 12z runs should have a good handle of it and definitely 0z, but I think we should know by 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18Z NAM is actually an ALB special. They get smoked under hours of +SN per this run as the mid-levels cool off quicker out there, maximizing snow time. We'd still do okay, but a good chunk of QPF is wasted as RA as it takes 3 hours for 850 mb 0° C line to get from ALB to PSF. Probably a high end advisory, maybe low end warning verbatim for Berks. Definite warning for Poconos, Catskills, and ALB this run. The NW trend is no longer our friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Who's to say it couldn't tick west a bit more, but that is a dynamic system any way you cut it. That would really suck. LOL. Albany's prescience in their AFD last night has come to pass it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That would really suck. LOL. Albany's prescience in their AFD last night has come to pass it seems. C'mon...join the club. It's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Heh, the 84 hour NAM might have festive light snow off and on anyway... kind of a norlun esque thing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That would really suck. LOL. Albany's prescience in their AFD last night has come to pass it seems. We should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not sure it would snow long enough verbatim. I'm not feeling this one.. If it plays out as depicted I agree. Need a tick SE or the comma head will be NW of you..whatever wraparound there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18Z NAM is actually an ALB special. They get smoked under hours of +SN per this run as the mid-levels cool off quicker out there, maximizing snow time. We'd still do okay, but a good chunk of QPF is wasted as RA as it takes 3 hours for 850 mb 0° C line to get from ALB to PSF. Probably a high end advisory, maybe low end warning verbatim for Berks. Definite warning for Poconos, Catskills, and ALB this run. The NW trend is no longer our friend... I hate it when a met has the same thought as me and it's not one of optimism. For MBY, I suppose being further north might help me a smidge with the cold air given the orientation of the temp gradiant. But, nothing of any significance. We could really use a 30 mile shift to really lighten up the mood in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS gave Phil a mini December '05...lol. Look at HYA sounding at 12z Thursday and 15z. Not surprising ... the '05 analog is still on the table. Trick is, these "analogs" are never a 100%... you're actually doing great if they are 55 or 60% come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS always loves to do that like 48 hrs out. But I wouldn't doubt some strong backside winds with this. It deepens pretty quickly with a big downward vertical component possible after the H5 low passes. i guess i wouldn't be surprised to see some 40 or 50 mph gusts. that backside jet on the GFS is very strong. admittedly, i was kind of hoping to see the NAM come in with something similar at 18z but it's got a more tame look. funny how this has evolved over the last 36 hours. the vortmax still weakens with time but nothing like what was being progged over the last several/many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18Z NAM is actually an ALB special. They get smoked under hours of +SN per this run as the mid-levels cool off quicker out there, maximizing snow time. We'd still do okay, but a good chunk of QPF is wasted as RA as it takes 3 hours for 850 mb 0° C line to get from ALB to PSF. Probably a high end advisory, maybe low end warning verbatim for Berks. Definite warning for Poconos, Catskills, and ALB this run. The NW trend is no longer our friend... Yeah, the 850 mb 0c line kind of stays put for a while before really moving east quickly it looks like. By quick it looks like it would change at like 2-3am for Pete and 4-5am for ORH and 6-7am even near the coast briefly...temps are warm everywhere at first and crash quickly. edit: By crash quickly i mean once the 0c line starts to move east...it does it in a matter of hours. It is mostly rain...even Pete probably gets more rain then snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 C'mon...join the club. It's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think if there's something the NAM is going to get right here is the really wrapped up nature of this storm. This is going to be a tiny storm and really tightly wound. I wouldn't be surprised if that gradient up north is real. The track of this system is definitely not set in stone, so the key features to watch is the speed and southeastward extent of the polar vortex because its going to act as a kicker and also the speed of the shortwave that is producing this snowstorm. Tomorrow's 12z runs should have a good handle of it and definitely 0z, but I think we should know by 12z Wednesday. Would not surprise me to see KLEB cash in with 8" while St. J gets 2". Always happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I fully expect warnings for up to a foot in ORH by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like between 12-15z up here thurs is when we will see the best snow 9:30 AM meeting in BGR - commute from the Farmington area ought to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Congrats: Rick Dendrite PF Eric Jeff To the rest of us, meh (according to this map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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