forkyfork Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 we like snow i'm sure you'll see snow sometime before march. no need to go nuts because this one didn't work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take his 4-8 and run. 54.6/54 Agreed or is it just greed.lol Looking good for a few inches at least. Amid this hostile regime I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take his 4-8 and run. 54.6/54 You, Pete and Dave look like your in a good spot on this for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Agreed or is it just greed.lol Looking good for a few inches at least. Amid this hostile regime I'll take it. And the weather hasn't been good for snow either. That's DT's 2nd call, the first one was out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i'm sure you'll see snow sometime before march. no need to go nuts because this one didn't work out hey careful now...we were nuts long before this storm ever materialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z Euro looks like GFS and that we probably don't change over until about 06Z, thus wasting a good chunk of our QPF as RA. If the antecedent airmass were colder, this would likely be a 15-20" type deal. Given dynamic nature of storm, our one hope is if dynamics can overwhelm the sketchy thermal profiles and changes us to +SN a little sooner than 06Z a la the NAM. +TSSN is a possibility as well. Regardless of the precise timing of the changeover, it may really rip for a few hours after 06Z before abruptly ending from W to E by 12Z. My best guess is a 4-8" deal for much of the Berkshires with maybe an 8-10" lollipop at 2K. CT Valley and mid Hudson Valley are probably 2-4". Take it and run...this is a horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the GFS has such a warm boundary layer... KORE doesn't change over til 48 hours according to bufkit you also have crappy ratios to deal with... i can't find a location that has snowgrowth in the -10c layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 How does the Euro look for ENY, none of the models really want to throw precip west despite the surface low moving more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think fropa was finally achieved here with 48 now. But the front is moving about 2 miles an hour. LOL Congrats. At 2 mph, I think I'll get it through here in 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You, Pete and Dave look like your in a good spot on this for some snow My daughter wants a snow day. Not sure if it would be enough to close GCC where my wife teaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think fropa was finally achieved here with 48 now. But the front is moving about 2 miles an hour. LOL I just posted a map on that in the obs/banter thread. 43° just north of Albany and 60° just south of town. Something else to track...exciting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Maybe scrapes Chatham..tough to tell on 6 hr increments. I don't think it changed much from 00z other than maybe slightly warmer out west. Nam had ORH changing over around 10z I think then maybe showing 1-3"...Euro similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My daughter wants a snow day. Not sure if it would be enough to close GCC where my wife teaches. If you were in CT it would be good for at least 2 days............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i'm sure you'll see snow sometime before march. no need to go nuts because this one didn't work out Gee wiz - nothing's happened yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I have a good feeling about the 18 and 0z runs, think this ticks back a little se so the interior sees some light accumulations, the berks and ski country still get hit and the CP ends as some paw paws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 15z srefs took a big jump NW, But seeing it was so far SE it just brings it more in line with the 12 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If you were in CT it would be good for at least 2 days............... 15z srefs took a big jump NW, But seeing it was so far SE it just brings it more in lne with the 12 Nam If they're still SE of the NAM/GFS/EC, I'm satisfied. What's the best site to run skew-t's from with long/lat? It's time for me to start checking mby. No frontal passage here--56.4/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 15z srefs took a big jump NW, But seeing it was so far SE it just brings it more in lne with the 12 Nam srefs mslp looks like a perfect track for interior sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This has been a huge exercise in weenie frustration. Even if (as some experienced mets - (Hi Tip)) have proposed it comes in better than a lot of the suicide watch crew have fathomed, it is only a middlin' event for early December. In any case, I'll be pleased with 1-3", call it a day, and "next"! Enjoy it further west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 srefs mslp looks like a perfect track for interior sne. They are quite juicy as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pretty sure the NAM will hold serve or nudge NW as it is already more negatively tilted through 6hrs. edit: through 12 you can already see heavier precip breaking out and lower slps over western VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My daughter wants a snow day. Not sure if it would be enough to close GCC where my wife teaches. It would take 2"+ down and snowing steadily at 6am. They have students from all over so they are pretty conscientious with their decisions to close. What dept. is she in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If they're still SE of the NAM/GFS/EC, I'm satisfied. What's the best site to run skew-t's from with long/lat? It's time for me to start checking mby. No frontal passage here--56.4/54 I have it bookmarked somewhere but hell if i can find it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 They are quite juicy as well Can you post the prob maps when they come out or post the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z nam is way faster and slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Have fun Pete and Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 not so fas this could get very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Can you post the prob maps when they come out or post the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Can you post the prob maps when they come out or post the link? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller This is the link i use.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 First wave is stronger on the nam, wonder if it will be able to pull some colder air down behind it and push the baroclinic zone east a tad, man is that a soaker tomorrow daytime on the nam, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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