snowNH Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is my location in nw ct even mostly out of rhe game? Not expecting anything at school I don't think anyone should be out of the game right now, a 30-50 mile tick SE will do wonders for SNE as tip said... we always see coastals trend SE and colder probably starting around the 00z suite tonight until leading up to storm.. People were saying the same thing as they are right now leading up to 10/29 and look what happened.. NAM leveled off a bit at 00z. I think a track close to the 10/29 track is likely. What did we see last year? Storm tracks tend to follow eachother throughout the year.. I love that this system is trending more dynamical too instead of a strung out POS On the other hand, a score for the crazy uncle on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dear Lord 9 times out of 10 that is a crushing snowstorm for almost all of SNE. That track and bombing out is perfect for us. That makes me want to knock over my Christmas Tree and step on all the ornaments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LOL, GFS pulls a mini Dec '05 on Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Be careful what you wish for. We have snowmaking temps right now for the weekend everywhere. Dont want to ruin with another rain storm Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dear Lord 9 times out of 10 that is a crushing snowstorm for almost all of SNE. That track and bombing out is perfect for us. That makes me want to knock over my Christmas Tree and step on all the ornaments I still think you'll be able to add to your seasonal total, Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dear Lord 9 times out of 10 that is a crushing snowstorm for almost all of SNE. That track and bombing out is perfect for us. That makes me want to knock over my Christmas Tree and step on all the ornaments lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 im sure youll see something maybe not what it could have been but enough so you dont want to freak everyone out in your house Dear Lord 9 times out of 10 that is a crushing snowstorm for almost all of SNE. That track and bombing out is perfect for us. That makes me want to knock over my Christmas Tree and step on all the ornaments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah I was thinking middle ground between the two. A compromise. The biggest problem I'm seeing this morning, even up this way, is that the cold air at H85 is a lot slower than it was 24-36 hours ago. Which means the surface is lagging even further behind that. Summits don't even go below freezing until late tonight when yesterday it appeared like it would be sometime this afternoon. That front gets sort of stuck off to the NW. The latest RUC models at the end of their runs still have the cold air a long way off to the west as of even 4z tonight. Even places that look like they'll do good on paper (ie weenie method of H85s of 0C to -3C), are still extremely warm in the lowest 3,000ft. And since we are so warm to begin with, that large QPF isn't from ridiculous UVVs from strong WAA, its just that this warmer air has higher precipital water values. Even in the QPF jackpot so to speak this still is extremely marginal. over the weekend, the models backed way off on snow (with the bz waves yesterday and last night) through eastern ontario and ottawa valley. a snow event turned into primarily rain with a brief snow to end. as the real cold air got stuck in central ontario again. the trend all fall has continued....overmodeling of the cold air in the mid range with backing off in the shortrange. just a miserable pattern, but hopefully someon can score a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS implies mostly rain here in the Berks up through about 06Z Thursday. NAM gets us to snow around 03Z. If GFS is right even we waste a lot of QPF as rain before flipping to +SN for a few hours before ending around 12Z. That extra 3 hours of SN on the NAM vs. GFS would make a big difference around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I still think you'll be able to add to your seasonal total, Kevin. Actually, if we can get 2.6", we'd (this portion of CT) be at normal levels through the end of December. Anything over that and we'd technically be above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Jerrys crazy uncle looks pretty amped and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm done. Maybe I can get a snow thump but I've wasted too much precious time. The squirrels hides are on the line so we better do better later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Jerrys crazy uncle looks pretty amped and warm. pics or it didn't happen but really im on the cell, can you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Jerrys crazy uncle looks pretty amped and warm. It has been all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 optimistic... Nelly Carreno NECN Meteorologist For those of you who have been asking me for snow..looks like Thursday is your lucky day (actually Wed night-Thursday morning.) A quick moving storm will pull cold air & turn rain to snow, dumping enough snow to shovel/plow in some areas. CT, RI & Cape/Islands looks like a dusting..Boston 1-3”, but from Worcester county west in MA & Windham county in VT, Cheshire & Hillsboro in NH we are looking at 3-6” w/higher terrains getting even more..Of course if the track of the storm changes a bit...so do amounts..on in 15min @NECN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 optimistic... Nelly Carreno NECN Meteorologist For those of you who have been asking me for snow..looks like Thursday is your lucky day (actually Wed night-Thursday morning.) A quick moving storm will pull cold air & turn rain to snow, dumping enough snow to shovel/plow in some areas. CT, RI & Cape/Islands looks like a dusting..Boston 1-3”, but from Worcester county west in MA & Windham county in VT, Cheshire & Hillsboro in NH we are looking at 3-6” w/higher terrains getting even more..Of course if the track of the storm changes a bit...so do amounts..on in 15min @NECN Oh Nelly.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I can't believe how strong this storm is on the GFS now. It went from weak and offshore, to a 980 just past Maine. I think there will be a crazy changeover line that moves east with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 optimistic... Nelly Carreno NECN Meteorologist For those of you who have been asking me for snow..looks like Thursday is your lucky day (actually Wed night-Thursday morning.) A quick moving storm will pull cold air & turn rain to snow, dumping enough snow to shovel/plow in some areas. CT, RI & Cape/Islands looks like a dusting..Boston 1-3”, but from Worcester county west in MA & Windham county in VT, Cheshire & Hillsboro in NH we are looking at 3-6” w/higher terrains getting even more..Of course if the track of the storm changes a bit...so do amounts..on in 15min @NECN Not even a met. Absolutely terrible LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 im thinking the same thing heavy rain to heavy snow just depends on how quick the changeover is but someone is going to get buried by this. I can't believe how strong this storm is on the GFS now. It went from weak and offshore, to a 980 just past Maine. I think there will be a crazy changeover line that moves east with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If we could only get the weekend low to come west........ One thing working in favor of Kevin's desire to see a warm solution to appease his self-fulfilling prophecy to be miserable... is that there has been a slight backing off of the amount of cold drain post that quasi stationary boundary sliding through around 24 hours from now. That stresses the frozen idea because otherwise would be less dynamics reliant. The flags originally looked to taut for a time, now...perhaps just wobbling. So it's 42-45F instead of 36-40F when things kick off overnight Thursday [perhaps]. Seems for BOS (i.e., Logan's lat/lon in relation to this thing), the cold arrives at about the same time the UVM drills ...big time race. But places back west from NW of HFD to FIT would see some cool 850mb-1000mb thickness a bit quicker and would benefit. Sorry for you guys in Willmington - what can I say. Move. There's still time folks. Again, as Wxm' and I mentioned a while ago, these things have a way of ticking back E slightly in that day or day in a half lead compared to the often warm 48-60 hour bias. Not evertime, but there is that plausibility still in the fray of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS ense take it over RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I can think of two reasons why she is on the air. i wish you all would stop with these types of posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I can think of two reasons why she is on the air. Lol. I agree with Mitch--we waste a lot of qpf as rain on the GFS.. I haven't looked at the totals but a quick eyeball had it similarly generous with the qpf. So, if we can just keep things cool....... Aint' gonna see anything wintry today, that's for sure. 53.0/53, foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS ense take it over RI Not really interested in the GFS at this point, Would be siding with the Nam/Euro and ride it until you get saddle sores.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 One thing working in favor of Kevin's desire to see a warm solution to appease his self-fulfilling prophecy to be miserable... is that there has been a slight backing off of the amount of cold drain post that quasi stationary boundary sliding through around 24 hours from now. That stresses the frozen idea because otherwise would be less dynamics reliant. The flags originally looked to taut for a time, now...perhaps just wobbling. So it's 42-45F instead of 36-40F when things kick off overnight Thursday [perhaps]. Seems for BOS (i.e., Logan's lat/lon in relation to this thing), the cold arrives at about the same time the UVM drills ...big time race. But places back west from NW of HFD to FIT would see some cool 850mb-1000mb thickness a bit quicker and would benefit. Sorry for you guys in Willmington - what can I say. Move. There's still time folks. Again, as Win' and I mentioned a while ago, these things have a way of ticking back E slightly in that day or day in a half lead compared to the often warm 48-60 hour bias. Not evertime, but there is that plausibility still in the fray of solutions. Yeah there may be some oscillation in the track, but the models keep trending this stronger, so I'm not really feeling an east tick....well at least substantial one anyways. Tough to get the models to grow stronger with the MSLP and also tick east. This storm may also have a strong burst of winds from the nw for 1-2 hrs. GFS drills the Cape with gusts past 50kts. Very dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i wish you all would stop with these types of posts... It's sad but true, though. They could have so many better experienced REAL mets. I don't care about her race or gender, but for god sakes have a real met on there. It makes the NECN wx team look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS ense take it over RI Looks closer to the Cape to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not really interested in the GFS at this point, Would be siding with the Nam/Euro and ride it until you get saddle sores.......... LOL yeah gfs is so unstable. Waiting on the EURO before getting excited/unhappy for up here. Calling for flurries in my forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LOL yeah gfs is so unstable. Waiting on the EURO before getting excited/unhappy for up here. Calling for flurries in my forecast lol It went from the furthest SE to the furthest NW in about 3 runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's sad but true, though. They could have so many better experienced REAL mets. I don't care about her race or gender, but for god sakes have a real met on there. It makes the NECN wx team look bad you def made a gender specific comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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