Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It may have come a little NW, but that isn't it... It' came in more amplified. That was also expected - I don't think you saw mine and other's posts on the matter as you were not around yesterday? Anyway, on the surface that may not look so good, but as I just analyzed on the 12z NAM, there are reasons there not to throw hands and do your dance. I tell you what, if it snows in Taconic CT to 12" and Kevin gets a big fat goose-egg 0, I'd still call this a success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM stabilized a bit, so I think it may have reached the nw point. Given your location, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on it, because a shift 30 miles east would give you a couple of inches. But, if you are just being content with reality, it's all good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 5-8"+ berks 3-5" ct valley per @WGGBWeather Seems a bit optimistic, especially for the lower valley, but maybe the Met at ABC40 is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM stabilized a bit, so I think it may have reached the nw point. Given your location, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on it, because a shift 30 miles east would give you a couple of inches. But, if you are just being content with reality, it's all good I guess. I just can't allow myself to get sucked in. I'm all set with an hour of snow at the end while areas not far NW get 6-12 inches of paste. I'd rather it not snow..because that makes it even more frustrating for me. This is 2000-2001 all over again except it's stormier. I'll be able to run in shorts all winter so that is something to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just can't allow myself to get sucked in. I'm all set with an hour or snow at the end while areas not far NW get 6-12 inches of paste. I'd rather it not snow..because that makes it even more frustrating for me. This is 2000-2001 all over again except it's stormier. I'll be able to run in shorts all winter so that is something to look forard to We can only pray this becomes 00-01! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 5-8"+ berks 3-5" ct valley per @WGGBWeather Thanks BB. We shall see. High bust possibility I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM stabilized a bit, so I think it may have reached the nw point. Given your location, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on it, because a shift 30 miles east would give you a couple of inches. But, if you are just being content with reality, it's all good I guess. The current NAM depiction does not leave him out at that location in CT. As I pointed out, it snows hard at BOS for a couple of hours at max on this 12z solution, so by common logic it's gotta at least be doing that at T CT. But....no one apparently cares about Met reasoning, they only care about spinning things negative. Good luck - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Won't be at all surprised to see the GFS come NW as it is the furthest piece of guidance SE and will be playing catch up with the rest of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM has quite the comma head over ern mass at 12z. Man if this even had a decent antecedent airmass..... And there my friends is the biggest problem of them all. We have no cold air to work with........goodbye chances of snow....hello rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think we would all love to repeat 2000-2001, especially since that winter featured those majors storms on dec 30 2000; feb 5 2001; march 5-7 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just can't allow myself to get sucked in. I'm all set with an hour of snow at the end while areas not far NW get 6-12 inches of paste. I'd rather it not snow..because that makes it even more frustrating for me. This is 2000-2001 all over again except it's stormier. I'll be able to run in shorts all winter so that is something to look forward to. Dates FTL. You mean 2001-2002. Well I don't think an inch or two for you is a pipe dream, but it depends what you make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 gfs is a soaker well ahead of the storm along the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dates FTL. You mean 2001-2002. Well I don't think an inch or two for you is a pipe dream, but it depends what you make of it. Two inches would be great. I just meant wet flakes that covered the top of my bald head and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The current NAM depiction does not leave him out at that location in CT. As I pointed out, it snows hard at BOS for a couple of hours at max on this 12z solution, so by common logic it's gotta at least be doing that at T CT. But....no one apparently cares about Met reasoning, they only care about spinning things negative. Good luck - I'd like to see it come east a bit more for BOS. It may flip for an hour or so..but I feel like we are torched for a little while, as the low develops. The 850 low is overhead which isn't the best location for it, if you want snow. I wish it would tick east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is DC getting snow out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Two inches would be great. I just meant wet flakes that covered the top of my bald head and nothing else I wouldn't go for that amount right now..but just saying. I'll just be content with flakes, but that is me. At least you have a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol........GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is DC getting snow out of this? A flip at the end, but I don't see much acc there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This has a period where it will deepen rapidly south of SNE. It's going to be a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 outside of the few runs where it went way OTS, the GFS has handled this system quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 And Powderfreak gets his snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The current NAM depiction does not leave him out at that location in CT. As I pointed out, it snows hard at BOS for a couple of hours at max on this 12z solution, so by common logic it's gotta at least be doing that at T CT. But....no one apparently cares about Met reasoning, they only care about spinning things negative. Good luck - if you want to get peoples' attention, you need to post in all CAPS and use ALEET ALEET before every post... anyway, so Mt Washington looks like a good place to ride out the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS has a really strong comma head from 09z to 12z in central mass/wrn mass and CT. I wouldn't be surprised if a flip to snow was accompanied by thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 5-8"+ berks 3-5" ct valley per @WGGBWeather looks good to me but 3 to 5 might be hard to get 2 inches might be a better bet more west of the valley and less east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS really drops a lot of qpf as liquid, but still liekly to pick up a little on the back end. Give me the NAM please. 52.9/52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is my location in nw ct even mostly out of rhe game? Not expecting anything at school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Even if only the Berks see this...the maps are pretty cool. That plume of instability curling nw towards the Cape and southeast RI is mid level instability. You cal also see the dryslot coming into view on the eastern tip of Long Island. While the LI is not negative..it shows that it is probably already conditionally unstable so any forcing may help trigger a little convection. Notice how that arcs right to the comma head. It doesn't mean we all see it, but this little guy is potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 PF does decent this run, but for him "not a huge event". Maybe like 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If we could only get the weekend low to come west........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If we could only get the weekend low to come west........ Be careful what you wish for. We have snowmaking temps right now for the weekend everywhere. Dont want to ruin with another rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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