Thursday Wintry Threat II

[Mr Torchey]

I think the berks (highest elevations) up into all of ski country should do well, and good for them and good for those that travel up there to ski. Trend this season has been to get precip further north as the storm gets closer on modeling, hopefully ski country can get a nice thumping to jump start the season!

[powderfreak]

honestly, i don't have a clue in VT where you are. for some reason i always assumed S VT because you post in these threads. so i might toss your name out there...doesn't imply YBY i guess.

I'm in north-central VT... two counties south of the Canadian border, dead smack next to the Spine of the Greens.

I just post in these threads because 1) They don't say SNE only or even mention SNE in the title 2) Its a New England weather forum and 3) We get like 3 posts a day in the NNE thread which is more like banter anyway.

I know what you mean though, everyone assumes these threads are for SNE only. Even Logan11 said last week that maybe we should move some of the discussion over to the NNE thread when the thread title we were in didn't even specify SNE, lol.

[CoastalWx]

I haven't been into it with anyone lately. I was in Buffalo all weekend and didn't even post. I can sense when things are going wrong..and i sensed it last night when I saw the 18z GEFS so amped. I even made a post about it.

Most of SNE is not going to see any snow out of this at all. You will be shovelling a foot or more of snow. The Euro is going to take this over PYM this afternoon.

I'm not complaining or trying to start any trouble. If you recall I was down on this winter back in Nov and people talked me off the cliff. People told me ..Kev don't worry it's only Nov.. Dec will look much better..Kev it's only NOv 15th I'm glad we're gettig this pattern out of the way now and not a month from now. My response initially was what will you say when we're still in the same pattern in mid Dec.. Guess what we are. It is what it is.

I think Will is sensing it too. We've lost 1 full month of winter and very possibly much more

We told you it could be pretty tough as well. It's not always a good thing when people tell you that we could luck out and sneak something in. The overall pattern has looked pretty tough for a while. This isn't anything new. Of course you have to give it a chance...especially since the ensembles were trying to build the ridge back near the Aleutians, but that is likely a big fail for now. The thing is, we have had some interesting storms in sh*t patterns which is why you can't just throw it away at first glance...but in terms of a long lasting winter pattern...it's looked like crap since beginning of Novie.

[CoastalWx]

Scott, what do you think for here?? Gonna be really close I think. I'm much more optimistic than the swfe cause this will be changing to snow and not the other way around.. starting to get pretty damn excited

I love how storm scoots east too at the end instead of NE.. kinda like 10/29

I don't think you'll see much at all. Longitude is better for this. You're gonna have to go to VT and down through ern NY and maybe ext western mass for this.

[powderfreak]

I don't know PF.. the position of the stalled front and the warm antecedent air and the fact that the ensembles are as far or farther NW than the op and the way the models have been trending all imply to me this could potentially end up like the Euro op or even a hair NW of that.

I will eat my hat if this ends up tracking NW of last night's EURO.

If I were along a Dryslot (the poster, not an actual dryslot) to West Chesterfield line right now I'd be pretty pumped.

[OSUmetstud]

SE NY would probably be the jackpot on that run...hunter mt area...maybe south. Berks lose some to rain in the first part of the storm.

[Mr Torchey]

I will eat my hat if this ends up tracking NW of last night's EURO.

If I were along a Dryslot (the poster, not an actual dryslot) to West Chesterfield line right now I'd be pretty pumped.

Reverse Psychobabble? lol, you are in a very nice spot, I think you easily see 3-6, 4-8 enjoy the snow!

[powderfreak]

I haven't been into it with anyone lately. I was in Buffalo all weekend and didn't even post. I can sense when things are going wrong..and i sensed it last night when I saw the 18z GEFS so amped. I even made a post about it.

Most of SNE is not going to see any snow out of this at all. You will be shovelling a foot or more of snow. The Euro is going to take this over PYM this afternoon.

I'm not complaining or trying to start any trouble. If you recall I was down on this winter back in Nov and people talked me off the cliff. People told me ..Kev don't worry it's only Nov.. Dec will look much better..Kev it's only NOv 15th I'm glad we're gettig this pattern out of the way now and not a month from now. My response initially was what will you say when we're still in the same pattern in mid Dec.. Guess what we are. It is what it is.

I think Will is sensing it too. We've lost 1 full month of winter and very possibly much more

Didn't mean to imply you got into it with anyone lately... I'm just speaking more in terms of your posting style and same with Will's. Both of you usually can find some positives and stay upbeat.

I just want to talk about winter weather and don't really care where it is at this point. I just like thinking that it could snow somewhere in New England even with this pattern, lol.

[Tropopause_Fold]

NAM has quite the comma head over ern mass at 12z. Man if this even had a decent antecedent airmass.....

you mean not like 56F at 9AM? LOL.

[dryslot]

I don't know PF.. the position of the stalled front and the warm antecedent air and the fact that the ensembles are as far or farther NW than the op and the way the models have been trending all imply to me this could potentially end up like the Euro op or even a hair NW of that.

Well, Its definitly better up this way for a lot of us, Looking at temps here H95 and And H85 stays below 0C here verbatium on the nam so it will be a wet snow down this way away from the coast and better to the NW, Precip tails off the further NW you go but still looks to be between .50-.75" from the mtns south once you back out the weds rain..

[Tropopause_Fold]

SE NY would probably be the jackpot on that run...hunter mt area...maybe south. Berks lose some to rain in the first part of the storm.

yeah that area gets crushed.

it does take a while for W/NW MA to cool, but the highest terrain should be going over to snow *relatively* early.

[CoastalWx]

you mean not like 56F at 9AM? LOL.

Exactly.

Could be a brief pounding for the folks in Maine too.

[powderfreak]

Reverse Psychobabble? lol, you are in a very nice spot, I think you easily see 3-6, 4-8 enjoy the snow!

Ha, nope trust me I'd take it but I just don't see it happening this far north the way that shortwave gets dampened out and crushed by confluence once it gets to about NJ. Given how sharp that NW edge of precip is modeled, I'd need this low to physically track over SNE and that's not going to happen. This can still pass over the Cape and only be a snowstorm for a thin band from the Catskills through the Berkshires and ENE.

Without a closed low and this staying an open wave getting sheared to the east, I just don't see how enough precip gets up into central/northern VT, northern NH, and western ME mountains.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think you'll see much at all. Longitude is better for this. You're gonna have to go to VT and down through ern NY and maybe ext western mass for this.

Maybe you can eek out an inch or two if it really flips fast thanks to the lift.

[OSUmetstud]

Maybe you can eek out an inch or two if it really flips fast thanks to the lift.

you talking to yourself again?

[CoastalWx]

you talking to yourself again?

It was for snowNH. If this pattern keeps up...many will be staring at blank walls and talking to themselves.

[dryslot]

I will eat my hat if this ends up tracking NW of last night's EURO.

If I were along a Dryslot (the poster, not an actual dryslot) to West Chesterfield line right now I'd be pretty pumped.

Yeah, Right now it looks pretty good, .75"-1.00" for here, Temps look to remain below 0c in the H85 and H95 level

[powderfreak]

I don't think you'll see much at all. Longitude is better for this. You're gonna have to go to VT and down through ern NY and maybe ext western mass for this.

Man talk about a razor sharp edge... you wouldn't want to go too far north in VT or else it'll just be mostly cloudy. Most of VT is dry on the NAM except the extreme SE corner sees significant precipitation. On the NAM, I'm not even sure if Logan11 would get much of anything, either.

The snowfall in this will just be an extremely narrow band, haha.

[ski MRG]

I will eat my hat if this ends up tracking NW of last night's EURO.

If I were along a Dryslot (the poster, not an actual dryslot) to West Chesterfield line right now I'd be pretty pumped.

We shall see.It'll be nice for Christmas spirit to get some snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

I will say this much …although the 12z NAM warmed a tad, we are still in waver-ability by 50 miles on system track. I have seen the NAM do this in the past where it has a colder looking event in its 60 to 84 hour range, then it gets warm around 48 hours out, only to tick back a degree or two inside 36 hours.

Also, the system can’t get much farther NW without a whole-scale position change regarding the polar vortex in Canada – the pathway between that feature and the compressed SE ridge is offering only a narrow slit for this thing to slip through.

[scoob40]

We shall see.It'll be nice for Christmas spirit to get some snow.

This fellow is in MRG's camp

http://twitter.com/#...9795456/photo/1

[mahk_webstah]

Things have been tense for some reason between some of the SNE regulars and NNE... pattern is getting to everyone, lol.

I don't think I've ever seen Will and Kev like this before and its only December 6th.

And I just don't think this is as far NW as the ECM... I've rehashed it over and over this morning and will go down in flames with it. I think this ends up a snowstorm for the Catskills of NY, into the Berkshires, Monadnocks, Lakes Region of NH and maybe the ME coastal plain if they cool enough.

To me, that is not a NNE event like some were implying. Heaviest snow still looks to fall in SNE in the Pete, MPM, and Wxmanmitch area.

and to the Mahk Webstah Dendrite Dryslot and maybe Jayhawk zone...

[ski MRG]

I will say this much …although the 12z NAM warmed a tad, we are still in waver-ability by 50 miles on system track. I have seen the NAM do this in the past where it has a colder looking event in its 60 to 84 hour range, then it gets warm around 48 hours out, only to tick back a degree or two inside 36 hours.

Also, the system can’t get much farther NW without a whole-scale position change regarding the polar vortex in Canada – the pathway between that feature and the compressed SE ridge is offering only a narrow slit for this thing to slip through.

Very sexy description.

[wxmanmitch]

Despite warmth of recent runs, Berks and Monads look to be in that narrow sweet spot zone if present runs verify. Any jog to the SE we have QPF problems, any jog to NW we have precip type issues. I really like the meso band signature on this event. There could be some hefty totals where this band sets up shop. Last nights Euro was a great run for this area.

As Tip alluded to, the NAM often over amps a little WRT to track and temp profiles in this timeframe only to tick back SE slightly at the end. I like last night's 00Z NAM run as a final solution for many.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any sleet possibilities with this?

[dryslot]

and to the Mahk Webstah Dendrite Dryslot and maybe Jayhawk zone...

lol. yes

[ski MRG]

This fellow is in MRG's camp

http://twitter.com/#...9795456/photo/1

I can't pull that up on my phone Scoob. Bad signal here at 2k. What does he say?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sam is furiously trying to produce a non-disgusting looking map...

Final call for MBY 1-3" of quickly melting slop

[bobbutts]

I can't pull that up on my phone Scoob. Bad signal here at 2k. What does he say?

5-8"+ berks

3-5" ct valley

per @WGGBWeather

[Typhoon Tip]

Despite warmth of recent runs, Berks and Monads look to be in that narrow sweet spot zone if present runs verify. Any jog to the SE we have QPF problems, any jog to NW we have precip type issues. I really like the meso band signature on this event. There could be some hefty totals where this band sets up shop. Last nights Euro was a great run for this area.

As Tip alluded to, the NAM often over amps a little WRT to track and temp profiles in this timeframe only to tick back SE slightly at the end. I like last night's 00Z NAM run as a final solution for many.

Yeah, agreed - I also want to add for the others; December is a classic dynamical month. Plenty of examples where UVM over-came marginality over the decades to exemplify that result.

The FRH grid (formerly known as the FOUS) shows that at max UVM and QPF, BOS (right on the water!) crashes to 00,00,99, ...the translation of which is 0C at 980mb, 0c and 900mb, and -1C at 800mb -that is a classic isothermal snow thump there, and given to the preceding interval being +5C and the ending bouncing back up is a clear pattern of dynamical cooling during max.

Taking this logic and transposing it 70 mi inland toward Orange Mass for example and it becomes easy to see a couple few hours of low visibility 8::1 snow.

Haha, you know - it seems unless the collective eyeball sees an idealized system in the models, there is no consideration for intermediately characterized events. Just a kind of engineering project kicks in to undermine any chances for the wintery result, perhaps at all. A lot of the negative posts I've read are not very Meteorologically sound to be frank. I think it must be a psycho-babble defense mechanism maybe, so that folks put themselves in a position to be pleasently supprised as opposed to being told one thing, and then being let down by unwanted results. I don't know. I think this lesson of not obsessing over snow will never sink in, so I am trying to abandon bringing it up altogether ... just the same, my own disconnect there allows me to see things a little more objectively - believe it or not, that makes it way way more fun to track these things. AND, the upshot? I'm not in a bad mood all the time waiting for an eternity for the weather to cooperate with my ID.