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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 12/8/2011 at 4:50 AM, Happy Valley said:

I actually get GPS readings at my house of 450' but Google Earth puts me 380-90.

RT 2 climbs quickly. MPM is at 1000' but not far from me as the crow flies.

After you get off I-91 at the rotary and head W on Rt 2 I'm the first right but miles up the road towards Colrain.

Neighborhood is in a nice elevated plateau along the Green River.

Usually average about 3 degrees colder than town.

yeah we always watch the car thermos drop from Greenfield up into Colrain and finally that first town in VT. I drive by your house all the time man!

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  On 12/8/2011 at 4:51 AM, CoastalWx said:

I haven't checked to be honest. I know sometimes it can be a little overzealous with snow, but it's good with trends and nowcasting up to 6 hrs.

That's what I've noticed too, a little amped up with the snowfall. But considering the strength of the wave and associated low pressure, the HRRR should do pretty well on the verification of features. These are the situations when it is supposed to perform well.

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  On 12/8/2011 at 4:50 AM, messenger said:

As in it blew the forecast? I haven't been following curious to its earlier evening performance on the R/S line.

It had 1-3" for BWI/DCA and even a little southeast of that line. Leesburg which is NW of that line didn't even see flakes. Totally bullish on progression of colder temps.

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  On 12/8/2011 at 4:51 AM, CoastalWx said:

I haven't checked to be honest. I know sometimes it can be a little overzealous with snow, but it's good with trends and nowcasting up to 6 hrs.

Grumbling in the southern threads that it teased with snows there earlier. Doesn't mean it's wrong here though.

Temperatures just universally fell on the mesonet....very odd.

http://www.pdfamily....her/mesomap.htm

EDIT: fell here too, 47.2 down 1.6 in a flash.

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from the obs thread...

  On 12/8/2011 at 4:56 AM, Juliancolton said:

Flipped over like a switch a few minutes ago here in Millbrook a few miles west of the CT border... ripping a good bit

Should switch in towns like Kent, Sharon, Salisbury within the half hour. Most of Litchfield County I'd think will rip by 1 am? Most of WMA rips by 12:45-1am?

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  On 12/8/2011 at 4:59 AM, ineedsnow said:

becket already flipped according to wunderground so they should have already

Becket has a bit longitude on them though...the way its setup right now it could have been snow there before Peru even though they might have some elevation on them. But you are probably right that it is snowing in Peru right now. You normally wouldn't see that type of temp drop unless the melting of the snowflakes was helping out.

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  On 12/8/2011 at 5:05 AM, CoastalWx said:

I hope the RUC has a clue, because it tries to get some stuff going this way between 09z and 10z.

The RUC has trended a lot better. I get ripped between 3-5am...2-4" if its right, but still wary of the back end not being as heavy as some of these models are depicting, but I still would rather see them trending better rather than worse of course.

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  On 12/8/2011 at 5:06 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The RUC has trended a lot better. I get ripped between 3-5am...2-4" if its right, but still wary of the back end not being as heavy as some of these models are depicting, but I still would rather see them trending better rather than worse of course.

I could see that area in ern PA giving us some fun later. It looks like it's getting its act together there. Vortmax can be seen moving off the Delmarva on radar.

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