ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:13 PM, CoastalWx said: I would think the chance of TSSN for someone in a narrow area is pretty good. Every model right now is showing a pretty wild period between 09z and 12z...maybe slightly earlier like you noted. We actually might see a pretty good tail form over central and eastern areas is everything consolidates a bit more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I mean look at this vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think this will tick back SE at 0z.Always does. Berks and ORH hills will still do well on the back side (3-5"+). Even down to Tolland I think they eek out 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:22 PM, ctsnowstorm628 said: I think this will tick back SE at 0z.Always does. Berks and ORH hills will still do well on the back side (3-5"+). Even down to Tolland I think they eek out 2-4" An extra hour or 30 mile difference in storm track would probably mean 2" or better. I'm not so sure about the se tick, but little nuances in this will make a big difference in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think advisories will go up for Berks/Monads/N ORH hills...not sure about S ORH and into NE CT...might be below advisory. Though I wouldn't blame them for putting one out if it was going to be 2.5" of snow in 2 hours near the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At any rate guys this has turned into a very interesting intense storm that 3 days ago was a deamplyfying SW. Somebody is going to get smoked with intense weather for a period. Great stuff. edit I mean guys in the non genderspecific way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:24 PM, CoastalWx said: An extra hour or 30 mile difference in storm track would probably mean 2" or better. I'm not so sure about the se tick, but little nuances in this will make a big difference in the interior. Right. That back side is going to be very dynamic and have of energy to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:12 PM, CoastalWx said: This thing may throw everything at us but the kitchen sink between 07z and 12z. This is pretty impressive. Couple of weak snownadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:25 PM, Ginx said: At any rate guys this has turned into a very interesting intense storm that 3 days ago was a deamplyfying SW. Somebody is going to get smoked with intense weather for a period. Great stuff. edit I mean guys in the non genderspecific way oh god......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:25 PM, Ginx said: At any rate guys this has turned into a very interesting intense storm that 3 days ago was a deamplyfying SW. Somebody is going to get smoked with intense weather for a period. Great stuff. edit I mean guys in the non genderspecific way I'm looking forward to watching some snow fall. Could get crazy here for awhile. We're listening to Christmas music and the house smells great from the mulled cider on the stove. Love this time of year. Nice work defending SNE in that OT thread,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:25 PM, Ginx said: At any rate guys this has turned into a very interesting intense storm that 3 days ago was a deamplyfying SW. Somebody is going to get smoked with intense weather for a period. Great stuff. edit I mean guys in the non genderspecific way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:22 PM, ctsnowstorm628 said: I think this will tick back SE at 0z.Always does. Berks and ORH hills will still do well on the back side (3-5"+). Even down to Tolland I think they eek out 2-4" i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:25 PM, Ginx said: At any rate guys this has turned into a very interesting intense storm that 3 days ago was a deamplyfying SW. Somebody is going to get smoked with intense weather for a period. Great stuff. edit I mean guys in the non genderspecific way et tu, brute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 having said that, the dynamics are going to have to squeeze out as much snow as it can, because the actual cold air is garbage. so in this case, i am not equating SE with more snow, unless the dynamics are as modeled currently. will be interesting to see it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The people who think this will tick back east live in Canada and Northern Vermont...hmm. Oh, and Tip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:51 PM, Organizing Low said: having said that, the dynamics are going to have to squeeze out as much snow as it can, because the actual cold air is garbage. so in this case, i am not equating SE with more snow, unless the dynamics are as modeled currently. will be interesting to see it unfold. The low is likely to be superbombing (>2mb per hour drop) as it tracks near CC...whenever you have that, you always have to be wary of the dynamics and how strong they could be. They are always tough to forecast because everything can have a snowball effect if you see a little change. In the Oct storm...the storm got yanked a little further offshore and slightly weaker than modeled so we never saw the hellacious CCB tail over E MA before ending...obviously in the case of Dec 2005, we did...Mar 8, 2005 also did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 OT...GEFS continues to look interesting for SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 10:58 PM, Boston-winter08 said: OT...GEFS continues to look interesting for SAT I don't think they look good at all. Looks like a wave forming along the front, that can't get going in time to throw moisture back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 11:00 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't think they look good at all. Looks like a wave forming along the front, that can't get going in time to throw moisture back. the mean looks like there must be some westward tucked-in members though, right? especially with the big spacing in the LP isobars must suggest high uncertainty too...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It might a little, but unlike the many fringe systems of the last two years, this one is occurring in a +NAO with no blocking. In the former cases the models had errant runs where they teased us here in the deep interior with heavier snow, but the mother block to the Northeast always had the last laugh and acted as the suppressor. Either way it is bombing as it moves to Cape Cod or off BOS, and so the comma head will have to sweep through with a switch to +SN at least as far as ORH. It may be brief but it doesn't have to last long if it is snowing at 2 or 3 inches per hour. On 12/6/2011 at 10:47 PM, Organizing Low said: i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is this output from the NAM? It's pretty cool to watch the storm bomb and the quick progression of the possible rain/snow line as modeled. http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/cloop.html Edit: Pretty much all of these are cool to loop through including the lower level temps that crash real fast when you get on the good side of the storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_18z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess it's time to pay attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 11:18 PM, mattb65 said: Is this output from the NAM? It's pretty cool to watch the storm bomb and the quick progression of the possible rain/snow line as modeled. http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/cloop.html Edit: Pretty much all of these are cool to loop through including the lower level temps that crash real fast when you get on the good side of the storm http://www.meteo.psu...z/comploop.html That's pretty cool, thanks for posting. According to that all the rain/snow is through the area by 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is the 18z NAM sim radar for 09z tomorrow night. Pretty impressive and it shows the potential for a 3 hour burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I might have to set my alarm to watch this... Will, do you think the winds will be cranking even this far inland, or is Phil getting all those goods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Harv not excited..had Boston getting a little slush, maybe 3" out by Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 11:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Here is the 18z NAM sim radar for 09z tomorrow night. Pretty impressive and it shows the potential for a 3 hour burst. amazing the difference an hour or three is going to make in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 11:29 PM, HubbDave said: I might have to set my alarm to watch this... Will, do you think the winds will be cranking even this far inland, or is Phil getting all those goods? It will def get pretty windy as the storm passes our latitude...models show >40 knots sustained down to 950mb so there is plenty of reason to expect a bit of that to mix down on Thursday morning. The best winds will def be down on the Cape though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Commute on Thurs could be amusing for many. Even if it is rain, that will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On 12/6/2011 at 11:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: It will def get pretty windy as the storm passes our latitude...models show >40 knots sustained down to 950mb so there is plenty of reason to expect a bit of that to mix down on Thursday morning. The best winds will def be down on the Cape though. Is it ok for us to troll other regional threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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