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12/8 Storm predictions


psv88

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From 4:18 pm NYC NWS discussion:

NAM VERY AGGRESSIVELY CRASHES SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION VIA

DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE BOARD. AM A

LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS SINCE THIS ACTUALLY WORKED OUT QUITE

WELL IN THE HISTORIC 10/29 SNOWSTORM...BUT SINCE THIS IS A 5TH/6TH

PERIOD EVENT AND FCST IS STILL LESS THAN CERTAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE

MESOSCALE LEVEL...PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVELY BY BLENDING NAM 2M

SFC TEMPS WITH MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS PRIMARILY WET SNOW

FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING THE CT COAST...AND RAIN

MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW FOR NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST

NORTH/WEST AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET

SPECIFIC ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT A STRIP OF ADVY-LEVEL SNOWFALL

LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWER AMTS FOR NYC METRO AND

LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND. STAY TUNED HERE

AS SHIFTS IN STORM TRACK/FORWARD MOTION/INTENSITY COULD HAVE

IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON THE FCST DETAILS.

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NYC - 0.

Newark - 0

Danbury - .5 inch

Islip - 0

NYC- Trace

Newark - Trace

Danbury - Trace

Islip - 0

I believe we have co-winners...

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I haven't seen any reports of snow in either of KEWR or KNYC reports, and the precip. has come to an end in both places.

I cut it in half because the 1st guy may have overdone it for Danbury....

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