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Dec 6-8 storm discussion thread


Cheeznado

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New MD up for E NC/SE VA, watch unlikely...

mcd2371.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CST WED DEC 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 072156Z - 072330Z MONITORING FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/ENHANCED POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A TORNADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NC/SOUTHERN VA. AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE/TREND TOWARD A MORE NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/APPRECIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NC INTO VA COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR /AROUND 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. THE INFLUENCES OF CONSIDERABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT QUASI-SHARP CONVECTIVE LINE IN VICINITY OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN UPDRAFT DEPTH AND/OR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AMID WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A HIGH DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SHOULD SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION/STORM-SCALE EVOLUTIONS BECOME EVIDENT. ..GUYER.. 12/07/2011
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Nice I get off at 7 wonder if the line will get here before then......hope it gets here right at 7 love driving in a good storm.

Forward progression roughly 33 miles an hr based its passing through the FAY area, starting to congeal a bit, and about 60 miles out, so yeah, just after 7 seems like a safe bet. Be nice to hear some thunder, been awhile. Just in time to go pick the wife up from work too.

post-382-0-42701200-1323296927.png

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pretty decent gusts blowing thru

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

532 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCZ087-096-099-109-110-SCZ053-054-056-072315-

BLADEN-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-COASTAL

HORRY-COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND HORRY-ROBESON-

532 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS

COASTAL HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...BRUNSWICK...BLADEN...

COLUMBUS AND EASTERN ROBESON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EST...

AT 528 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXTENDING FROM TOLARSVILLE AND TAR

HEEL...SOUTH THROUGH BLADENBORO...EVERGREEN...CERRO GORDO...CHERRY

GROVE...GREEN SEA...ADRIAN...RED HILL AND FORESTBROOK...TO NEAR

GARDEN CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. DEAD OR WEAKENED TREE LIMBS COULD BE

BLOWN DOWN. LIGHTWEIGHT DEBRIS LIKE YARD FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS

COULD BE PICKED UP BY THE WIND AND MOVED AROUND AS WELL.

NO THUNDER OR LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELIZABETHTOWN...GARDEN CITY...LITTLE

RIVER...MURRELLS INLET...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...RED

HILL...SOCASTEE...SURFSIDE BEACH...WHITEVILLE AND ABBOTTSBURG.

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Light snow now falling in Weaverville. Winds are mixing down & it is howling out there now. Looking at the radar not so good for the Asheville area but. CAD & Joe could score 1-2" from this last slug of moisture coming thru. Then the flow to follow but looking at the RUC it looks pretty shallow & short lived to my untrained eyes.

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Watch coming for NE NC/SE VA popcorn.gif

mcd2372.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0442 PM CST WED DEC 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC/SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 072242Z - 072315Z

A WW WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY BETWEEN THE SPC AND AFFECTED WFOS

IN NERN NC AND SERN VA.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NC/SRN VA INDICATED A LINE OF

LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS /A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE NC/VA

BORDER/ HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED/INTENSIFIED SINCE 2155Z...

ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT TOWARD SRN VA. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO

SHOWED ADDITIONAL STRIKES OVER WRN NC...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE

LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING

THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN RECENT SEVERE AND NEAR-SEVERE

WIND GUST REPORTS OVER SRN NC...CONCERN EXISTS FOR FURTHER STORM

INTENSIFICATION AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS WRN NC

REACHES THE ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION AND WARM SECTOR. GIVEN AREA

WSR-88D VAD PROFILERS SHOWING 50-60 KT AT 0.5-1 KM AGL COMBINED WITH

THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AT 40 KT...A THREAT FOR STRONG...

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS DESPITE LIMITED LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

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http://www.twitvid.com/7VADN

This is as this strong storm was moving through Alexander County. It definitely wasn't just rain, and very gusty.

Turn the volume down a bit at the beginning, didn't think my phone could record that loud!

Your not kidding. I heard thunder in northern Wilkes County from that.

Boone was reporting snow but then went to thunder/rain and now back to snow from those isolated storms moving through the foothills.

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Same here. Big 'ole heavy fat flakes. A little Appalachian Applesauce for the dinner hour. Now at 30.2 and sticking to everything. Quick hitter but I'll take it!

YOu make me sick!.................................... Not, really....I'm happy for you Joe! The sooner you get tired of snow the sooner you can head out to Tahiti, and you can send your unwanted dregs down this way ;)

Still haven't made it into the 30's yet, but now the sun is down it won't be long. 41.3. Sure felt good today. Tony

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YOu make me sick!.................................... Not, really....I'm happy for you Joe! The sooner you get tired of snow the sooner you can head out to Tahiti, and you can send your unwanted dregs down this way wink.png

Still haven't made it into the 30's yet, but now the sun is down it won't be long. 41.3. Sure felt good today. Tony

LOL. The way this winter looks like it's shaping up I might not have to go anywhere..................Na.....We'll go somewhere. We're thinking Dubai,.....seriously! Wonder what they would think about a hillbilly??

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Happy for you snow lovers that are getting some! Only picked up .14" rain in that warned line that passed through, but it came down hard and fast for about 5 minutes. Winds only gusted to around 30 or so. Looks like a couple more less intense bands to pass through during the evening.

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LOL. The way this winter looks like it's shaping up I might not have to go anywhere..................Na.....We'll go somewhere. We're thinking Dubai,.....seriously! Wonder what they would think about a hillbilly??

Yeah, I think that is where they have that huge indoor ski slope. Just don't try to smuggle in shine via your water bottle! And cut down on your twang some, lol. YOu'll be ok.

I bet you still get 50 inches or more before it is all over. Might not get your hundred, but then again you could get it all in one storm thumbsupsmileyanim.gif Going to be an interesting year, I think.... I hope, I think ........T

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