WeatherNC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Euro 3hr SN-fall through 36hrs ---> pretty much it (maybe a couple inches in northern most MS and SW TN prior to). Areas in NW NC, west and north of Boone, likely in the 6"+ range adding the 39hr panel, maybe even a second bullet between Gatlinburg and Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I really wish I was living in your neck of the woods. You guys in the higher elevations have done much better than us lowlanders. Do you know what your average snowfall total is for any given year? While you guys up there have seem some modest snowfall this season, what many of us are looking for is a widespread event that is not marginal based on elevation/temperature. If this winter can deliver one of those badboys you can bet there will be a bunch of happy campers on this board. Until then the pain continues for us below 2000 feet and farther south. Enjoy your snow from this system. If I can't cash in I'm rooting for you guys up there! Thanks i live in a beautiful part of the mountains. Ya we do well even in a down year. Our average is like a foot and a half but the last two winter have been crazy. Last winter i measured over two feet of snow two separate times last year. We get a lot of snow here were i live. Ya the elevation here makes a big difference especially along the TN/NC boarder. Also not talking bad about Meteorologist around here but it is very hard to predict winter weather in the mountains. There has been numurous times they call for rain and we no it is going to snow and it does and it snows a lot. It's just something living in the mountains that you no when you might be getting a snow or just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Near Auburn and Fence Rd Cool!. I use to live off of Fence on Bailey Woods. I'm on the other side of 316 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Front has hit Marietta, winds shifted to the west and temp is now dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 WOW! Very nice! What is the elevation at that house? Thanks! Just under 3000ft at 2979ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Front has hit Marietta, winds shifted to the west and temp is now dropping. I guess the front made it to Metro Atlanta before it made it here. Temp is 64 and rising with sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I guess the front made it to Metro Atlanta before it made it here. Temp is 64 and rising with sunshine. The cold front hasn't moved through Atlanta yet, it's still in the upper 60s w/ SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snow-likely-for-the-southern-appalachians-tomorrow?CID=examiner_alerts_article Image by: Allan Huffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I guess the front made it to Metro Atlanta before it made it here. Temp is 64 and rising with sunshine. I'll see what the next update reveals from Dobbins but the last observation sure looked like a frontal passage. http://www.nws.noaa....story/KMGE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The front is still draped across extreme NW GA, it hasn't moved from this spot since I woke up at 10 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The front is still draped across extreme NW GA, it hasn't moved from this spot since I woke up at 10 this morning. Your map is two hours old, the current time is 20:03Z. The latest update from Dobbins is still west winds. I don't know if the front has passed here or is passing or not. But the last two obs sure point to a FROPA. edit : Rome where the front has passed is still reporting SW winds, not sure what to make of that. You seem to be correct, not sure why I have had west winds for over an hour if the front has yet to pass. No DP drop yet here so that would be a good sign against a FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Your map is two hours old, the current time is 20:03Z. The latest update from Dobbins is still west winds. I don't know if the front has passed here or is passing or not. But the last two obs sure point to a FROPA. edit : Rome where the front has passed is still reporting SW winds, not sure what to make of that. You seem to be correct, not sure why I have had west winds for over an hour if the front has yet to pass. No DP drop yet here so that would be a good sign against a FROPA. This has got to be the slowest moving cold front ever. Cold front passed through Birmingham like 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM upped the snow amounts a bit on it's snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM upped the snow amounts a bit on it's snowfall maps. I know this has been covered before, but do these maps take into consideration the warm ground temps when portraying accumulations? I am thinking they do, but not positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It was 70 with patchy near invisible drizzle for about 15 minutes around 3. That was my excitement for the day so far Think I'll go wax the runners on my sled, and try to think positive. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 333 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...RADAR INDICATING ACTIVITY AS FRONT EXITS TO THE AREA. UPPER LOW ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO INTO THURSDAY SO WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS. GETTING SOME COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SOME SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION EXCEPT MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION. SO WILL GO FOR ONLY ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION. WITH THE RAIN...STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV FOR TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...TREND OF MODELS HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST TO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS WED NIGHT...THEN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO BE DRY BY 06Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND NORTHEAST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND JUST HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR. GFS HAS NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN BY TUESDAY...WITH ECMWF EARLIER ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUE. MRX must be really on the fence. Usually their afternoon packages are out by now. I wonder if they are considering WSW's over advisories? Nevermind, I see their discussions now. Not updated on their forecast page that I looked at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm hopeing to get a token flake or two tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I know this has been covered before, but do these maps take into consideration the warm ground temps when portraying accumulations? I am thinking they do, but not positive. I don't think they do so that's when we say stuff like..."mainly on grasses surfaces" and stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 301 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000- LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN- MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...RUSSELLVILLE... MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...GUNTERSVILLE... SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE... WINCHESTER 301 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY... A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN TEXAS WILL SWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR POISED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON AREA RIDGE TOPS. THE DRIZZLE WILL INTENSIFY INTO SHOWERS BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF A FAYETTEVILLE TENNESSEE...TO DECATUR AND MOULTON ALABAMA LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. THIS ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS TO BANKFULL OR POSSIBLY MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE RAIN MAY BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW...FIRST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN THESE AREAS...THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY SLIP TO NEAR FREEZING ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SO SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP. IN VALLEY AREAS...THE RAIN SNOW MIXTURE SHOULD NOT POSE A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. BLACK ICE COULD BECOME A HAZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S. $$ KULA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Interesting HUN AFD Snippet: THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST UVV WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z WED MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN UNISON WITH THE BEST -DIV Q FIELD. THIS IS ALSO DURING A PERIOD OF RAPID LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR THE FREEZING LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW A CHANGEOVER AS EARLY AS 12-15Z IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A RAW PRECIP TYPE OF SN IS FCST BY THE NAM USING BUFKIT FOR KHSV BY 18Z. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT / CAA ALOFT...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOW RATES ALOFT AND LOWER THE FZL QUICKER THAN THE MODELS REALIZE. THUS...IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE FULLY EXPECT A MIX OR EVEN A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOMETIME BTWN 12-18Z...AND PSBLY AREAWIDE BY AFTN...UNLESS A QUICKER DRY SLOT CAN OCCUR WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING. IN THE NAM SCENARIO...WE COULD SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ATOP THE PLATEAU MAY KEEP SOME -SHSN PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. SINCE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...WE WILL BEGIN BY ADDING ~0.5 ACCUMS ABOVE 1500 FT. THIS SYS BEARS WATCHING...SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 WWA up for my area. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 404 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ON THE ROADS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED ROADS. NCZ001-018-VAZ015-070515- /O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0017.111207T2100Z-111208T0900Z/ ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE 404 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA AND GRAYSON HIGH COUNTY...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLACK ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...THE ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW. BLACK ICE MAY BE PRESENT ON UNTREATED ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING BELOW FREEZING BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 400 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If moisture is available and downsloping flow is weak...areas east of the Blue Ridge and north of Highway 460 could also see snow by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Up to 1.48 inches of rain for this event with more coming. Hoping to see some flakes fly. I had to drive up Lookout Mountain to see them with the ULL last week. Maybe this system will work out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm hopeing to get a token flake or two tomorrow night. \ Looks like Blacksburg does give me a chance of that token flake!! lol \ Rain in the evening...then a chance of rain with a slight chance of snow after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Much cooler with lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 \ Looks like Blacksburg does give me a chance of that token flake!! lol \ Rain in the evening...then a chance of rain with a slight chance of snow after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Much cooler with lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent I'd be really surprised if your part of NC got an inch from this. The cold is coming in from southwest, and like Phil said the strong warm advection is pretty strong in nw and north central NC during 99% of this, you'd want to be in Boone or northern mtns for the changeover and substantial snow. Usually the cold at the surface just can't materialize in the nw piedmont on this kind of track because the downslope flow is a little too warm eliminates the moisture very quickly, just when you need all you can get to generate dynamic cooling. For central and NW virginia, much better spot. Dont' want to sound too negative though, there's always a chance when the 5H system comes right over head (and its doing that in this case) , but it would be so quick if you blink you'd miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'd be really surprised if your part of NC got an inch from this. The cold is coming in from southwest, and like Phil said the strong warm advection is pretty strong in nw and north central NC during 99% of this, you'd want to be in Boone or northern mtns for the changeover and substantial snow. Usually the cold at the surface just can't materialize in the nw piedmont on this kind of track because the downslope flow is a little too warm eliminates the moisture very quickly, just when you need all you can get to generate dynamic cooling. For central and NW virginia, much better spot. Dont' want to sound too negative though, there's always a chance when the 5H system comes right over head (and its doing that in this case) , but it would be so quick if you blink you'd miss it. Yea I know, I'm sure not depending on it. I'm like you I would be surprised to see a flake... They miss the forecast 90% of the time at least in these cases, I'd be willing to bet there will be no chance in my forecast in the morning package... If I got snow/flurries everytime they stick it in the forecast I would be living in a snowy place!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yea I know, I'm sure not depending on it. I'm like you I would be surprised to see a flake... They miss the forecast 90% of the time at least in these cases, I'd be willing to bet there will be no chance in my forecast in the morning package... If I got snow/flurries everytime they stick it in the forecast I would be living in a snowy place!!! yeah living in the lee of the higher mountains does it's number huh? but the good news is, if we had a system like this just a hundred miles further south and east you'd get nailed. It might happen later this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Front has passed here. The temp dropped four degrees while I was in the shower. 58 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snow reported last hour in Shreveport, LA. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snow reported last hour in Shreveport, LA. Interesting. Funny thing is, the NWS forecast says a 20% chance of rain. Somebody might wanna get around to changing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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