FoothillsNC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well, if you're buying into most the local Mets forecasts, that's the deal; not much forecasted. I am surprised in light of the 12z runs today, that KMRX still isn't making much of it, even for the higher elevations.? It's as if they are still going with the early morning runs. I'm rather puzzled. I know many of them there and they are very good Mets..There are some newbies of late. Maybe that's the prob.. As far as our other local outlet mets; watched one this evening and they were clearly showing this mornings model run, when they did the Model animation forecast. Usually a strong upper trough tilting quickly like this in the location it is on all the models and with the cold enough air has produced a period of moderate snow on the nw side , and all along the spot has appeared to be around eastern TN. To me this looks like a given, but I'm not sure what the others (locals) are showing for there. There's good RH and lift, exit region of the jet, 850 low in the lee of the Apps, which should enhance snow rates in eastern TN, esp. NE TN and sw VA. The surface low track through central NC is a good setup for the western side of the Apps (imo). Now for DC and into central and western VA its a really tougher call. The upper temps might get just cold enough (its colder now on GFS) but that might be from dynamic cooling shown on the model, which sometimes doesn't work in the piedmont. It theoretically could but usually doesn't. However for far western VA along the Shenandoah it probably will, and closer to 95 it should end as snow, maybe moderate to heavy for a couple of hours. Also, by dark Wednesday night it may be just cold enough even in nw GA to switch over or mix in briefly. Its another fun system. For the Carolinas, its a lot of rain. Much needed for the triangle and central SC (unfortunately not as much again in central and eastern SC due to track). The western foothills and mountains could get another 2" from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Usually a strong upper trough tilting quickly like this in the location it is on all the models and with the cold enough air has produced a period of moderate snow on the nw side , and all along the spot has appeared to be around eastern TN. To me this looks like a given, but I'm not sure what the others (locals) are showing for there. There's good RH and lift, exit region of the jet, 850 low in the lee of the Apps, which should enhance snow rates in eastern TN, esp. NE TN and sw VA. The surface low track through central NC is a good setup for the western side of the Apps (imo). Now for DC and into central and western VA its a really tougher call. The upper temps might get just cold enough (its colder now on GFS) but that might be from dynamic cooling shown on the model, which sometimes doesn't work in the piedmont. It theoretically could but usually doesn't. However for far western VA along the Shenandoah it probably will, and closer to 95 it should end as snow, maybe moderate to heavy for a couple of hours. Also, by dark Wednesday night it may be just cold enough even in nw GA to switch over or mix in briefly. Its another fun system. For the Carolinas, its a lot of rain. Much needed for the triangle and central SC (unfortunately not as much again in central and eastern SC due to track). The western foothills and mountains could get another 2" from this event. Robert, KMRX just mentions possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending especially over the higher elevations. The others, basically the same but with possble lt. accs @ higher eles. The track you detail has always been the perfect snow track for this area, as you mention. We used to get alot of those piedmont runners in the late 70's I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm thankful I took a break from studying ("dead week," miyass) and stumbled upon this. Bullseye, much? I close tomorrow night at my store, and I have a feeling if the models don't produce a major shift over the next twelve hours, a talking head* from either WJHL or WCYB will pick up on this and scare the townspeople senseless. Not much analysis from me, unfortunately; all I can contribute are observational updates and ramblings. Back to economics I go! *Edited to add: Tri-Citians understand why I say this. Our area boasts one good OCM. Edited once more: and so it begins... @robwilliamsWJHL Will be talking this morning about our possibilities for a Wednesday evening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Unless this were to trend towards more of a cutoff low, it will likely be only an elevation event, at least in NC and most of VA. The cold air aloft will rush in, but there will still be enough pockets of > than 0*C to produce rain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I would love to be up at Big Walker Lookout at the summit of Big Walker Mountain (the mountain that the first tunnel on I-77 north of Wytheville passes through) for this event. Looks like a solid 1-4"+ snow in SW VA and, at the summit, amounts could easily approach 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like GSP jumped on board a little bit more overnight. Here is part of the short term afd: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY ACROSS THE MTNS LATE WED THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH NW FLOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING IN THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING IN THE COLDER MTN AIR WED EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER BACK TOWARD THE TN BORDER IN A MORE TRADITIONAL NW UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE NRN NC MTNS...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTN VALLEYS...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD BE NEEDED SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like GSP jumped on board a little bit more overnight. Here is part of the short term afd: ..BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD BE NEEDED SOON. Yep. Its not hard at all to get a decent round of snow in all the mtns of NC this time of year with the strong trough/temp. cutoff coming right below the Apps. Actually its a great track, the only limiting thing is the fact its a fast mover. But I'm still expecting a 3 to 6 hour window of moderate snow in east TN and most of west NC. WWA or WSW would likely be issued afternoon package from MRX and GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Robert, Are you going to do a snow totals map? Just curious and I know it takes time.................... so if you do, thanks a bunch. MRX is notoriously conservative, and for good reason. Being in a valley between mountains sometimes plays tricks on even the most seasoned forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Great write again Robert. /you seem to be the man to go to with all this winter weather and cutoff lows. But i am fast understanding you really no your stuff. thanks for the continuous right ups and updates. Wow if i were to get just 3-6 inches of snow on the ground that would be awesome!Also looks like it is going to stay cool behind the system for a couple of days which will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Great write again Robert. /you seem to be the man to go to with all this winter weather and cutoff lows. But i am fast understanding you really no your stuff. thanks for the continuous right ups and updates. Wow if i were to get just 3-6 inches of snow on the ground that would be awesome!Also looks like it is going to stay cool behind the system for a couple of days which will be nice. Robert does a GREAT job for this board. There are several mets here that give so much to this board and it's a great place to come for learning. He's not saying 3-6 inches though. He's saying 3-6 hours of possible moderate snow. I am sure accumulations will be heavily dependent on the rate of snowfall. Even with warmer ground temps we could see a nice accumulation if the rates are heavy enough. At the very least, a few hours of moderate snow will make the trees very pretty.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Robert, Are you going to do a snow totals map? Just curious and I know it takes time.................... so if you do, thanks a bunch. MRX is notoriously conservative, and for good reason. Being in a valley between mountains sometimes plays tricks on even the most seasoned forecasters. I don't know if I'll have time, I have to leave shortly. Just saw the NAM it looks consistent, maybe a tad stronger. I have always liked the approach of the strong 5H system for eastern TN and still feel that way. It cuts off and is pretty cold core in eastern (esp. NE TN) at a time when plenty of RH and Lift is available, so I have almost no doubt there will be a period of decent snow rates there, but won't say it can accumulate or how much, but a few hours of moderate snow still looks like from Knoxville, northeastward. And the 850 and surface lows are still in a good spot, its really too bad this is such a fast mover, or it would be a nice little event, but 1" to 3" quick inches or something like that in northeast Tenn is possible, and same for extreme se Ky and even more in most of West Virginia with a nice blossoming of moisture and cold. For the NC mountains it looks about the same but the dynamics for good lift (snow rates) actually look best in eastern TN to me so far, that could change to include NC even more, and of course the nw slopes in NC will do okay for a few hours after the main RH has left. Even for central TN and northern Alabama,looks like a brief period of snow falling, but it's pretty short lived. Great write again Robert. /you seem to be the man to go to with all this winter weather and cutoff lows. But i am fast understanding you really no your stuff. thanks for the continuous right ups and updates. Wow if i were to get just 3-6 inches of snow on the ground that would be awesome!Also looks like it is going to stay cool behind the system for a couple of days which will be nice. thanks for the compliments. So far it looks like duration won't allow that much snow in NC, but closer to 3" is possible in the best bands, hard to say in NC where that is, the sw mountains get colder first, but the northern mtns have more duration of being in moisture. If the storm were just a smidge further east than what all the models are showing, then it would be more I think, but we're getting within 36 hours of start time so we should be able to nail down exact timing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thanks guys. Well any snow on the ground at all will be a nice sight especially before Christmas. It will be nice to see it fall at night as i will be working my night shift Wed night so pretty cool about all this torch talk but we seem to be getting a least a chance of snow on a weekly basis. Pretty cool if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rain in the metro Atlanta looks very underwhelming. This looks like an underperformer AGAIN for this part of the southeast. Unless things turn around fast this will be a big bust on rainfall totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is out through 54 hours so the storm is done. No surprises, it maintains the chance of a period of moderate snow in eastern Tn, the mtns of Tn, mtns of NC and then most of Wva, esp. the southern and eastern sections, and maybe western VA highlands, western Maryland and part of New England. The vort maxes out right around western NC so around 5pm to Midnight is when eastern TN and western NC can expect the best chance of snowfall. It could come down pretty hard in ne TN and nw NC for a few hours before moisture exits. This is the storm that the ECMWF had going out to sea for quite a few runs, now its increasingly clear its going up the East Coast. The GFS is simply handling all these cutoffs so much better than the other models, and from pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thanks guys. Well any snow on the ground at all will be a nice sight especially before Christmas. It will be nice to see it fall at night as i will be working my night shift Wed night so pretty cool about all this torch talk but we seem to be getting a least a chance of snow on a weekly basis. Pretty cool if you ask me. I really wish I was living in your neck of the woods. You guys in the higher elevations have done much better than us lowlanders. Do you know what your average snowfall total is for any given year? While you guys up there have seem some modest snowfall this season, what many of us are looking for is a widespread event that is not marginal based on elevation/temperature. If this winter can deliver one of those badboys you can bet there will be a bunch of happy campers on this board. Until then the pain continues for us below 2000 feet and farther south. Enjoy your snow from this system. If I can't cash in I'm rooting for you guys up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For AL, GA this looks like a cold chasing the moisture type of scenario. The moisture is rocketing along tomorrow afternoon and IMHO I think it will exit quicker than the models are showing. I think Crossville TN eastward in TN would see a change over with and inch or so possible depending on elevation. Now I'm not all that familiar with the topo and plateaus of eastern TN so lower elevations could just be flakes. I think the best chance of higher accumulation in TN, outside of the mountains, will be the far NE corner near TRI. Regarding WNC I think 1-2" will be common above 2,000 ft in elevation with more in the Banner Elk higher elevation areas. The best spot for snow looks to be SW VA and the mountains along the WV/VA line. Maybe the models can trend colder and create some surprises. The 12z GFS now has a 546 contour down into GA while the previous runs did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rain in the metro Atlanta looks very underwhelming. This looks like an underperformer AGAIN for this part of the southeast. Unless things turn around fast this will be a big bust on rainfall totals here. About 7pm I felt about 10 pin head sized drizzles, then nada. About 3am I looked out and the tin roof of my barn was wet. Just now checked the gauge and it has nothing in it. So, yeah, I think you chose the right word..unwhelming, lol. Maybe this line coming in will at least wet the bottom of the gauge T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rain in the metro Atlanta looks very underwhelming. This looks like an underperformer AGAIN for this part of the southeast. Unless things turn around fast this will be a big bust on rainfall totals here. It's been the exact opposite in my area as far as the expected rain totals. It seems it has always rained more and longer this year than the local TV mets said it would when we do get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 About 7pm I felt about 10 pin head sized drizzles, then nada. About 3am I looked out and the tin roof of my barn was wet. Just now checked the gauge and it has nothing in it. So, yeah, I think you chose the right word..unwhelming, lol. Maybe this line coming in will at least wet the bottom of the gauge T Another storm producing OVER an inch in NW GA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This may be a great first call as the 0Z American models have shifted this ever so slightly towards the coast. GFS model has a slight dusting over extreme northwestern Triad now (haven't look at actual sounding for run). Any more shift in track may allow more of us to at least see the first flakes of the season. Looks like it is givng Roxboro some snow. They always get it first around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like it is givng Roxboro some snow. They always get it first around here. We may see some token flakes up here at the shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Another storm producing OVER an inch in NW GA.. Yep, folks in Chattanooga are having to breathe through snorkles, and we can't get the ground wet 130 miles south. Ahhh...the vagaries of weather T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I really wish I was living in your neck of the woods. You guys in the higher elevations have done much better than us lowlanders. Do you know what your average snowfall total is for any given year? While you guys up there have seem some modest snowfall this season, what many of us are looking for is a widespread event that is not marginal based on elevation/temperature. If this winter can deliver one of those badboys you can bet there will be a bunch of happy campers on this board. Until then the pain continues for us below 2000 feet and farther south. Enjoy your snow from this system. If I can't cash in I'm rooting for you guys up there! I was in your shoes. I moved up here from Dacula, GA. After a year of searching I was able to find a better job than I had in Atlanta. I found a picture of a snow drift that I took last January. The pic was taken about 10 miles west of Boone in Ashe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I was in your shoes. I moved up here from Dacula, GA. After a year of searching I was able to find a better job than I had in Atlanta. I found a picture of a snow drift that I took last January. The pic was taken about 10 miles west of Boone in Ashe county. Where in Dacula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I was in your shoes. I moved up here from Dacula, GA. After a year of searching I was able to find a better job than I had in Atlanta. I found a picture of a snow drift that I took last January. The pic was taken about 10 miles west of Boone in Ashe county. Awesome! Kinda off topic, but I have a family vacation home in West Jefferson, Ashe County...love going up there. House to the right is ours, left is my Great Uncle's. Mt. Jefferson in the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Awesome! Kinda off topic, but I have a family vacation home in West Jefferson, Ashe County...love going up there. House to the right is ours, left is my Great Uncle's. Mt. Jefferson in the back. WOW! Very nice! What is the elevation at that house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Where in Dacula? Near Auburn and Fence Rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Word of caution... The trends in the modeling have been for a significantly more amplified solution in the last couple of cycles as the models are catching on to more of the 500mb vorticity being focused with the southern stream system rather than the lead system that is now much more de-amplified. This should allow a bit of a ridge to kick up off the east coast that could send the 850mb low further to the west in the early going. The 00z ECMWF highlighted this potential solution. This might significantly cut down totals in the NC Mountains (outside of favored NW flow areas), but increase the threat for some significant snows in ETN and EKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I was in your shoes. I moved up here from Dacula, GA. After a year of searching I was able to find a better job than I had in Atlanta. I found a picture of a snow drift that I took last January. The pic was taken about 10 miles west of Boone in Ashe county. pic reminds me of my days up in NH, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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