easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 euro still shows some snow n and w of the cities and a little in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I have over 400 ft in elevation and i'm west of the city, so maybe a couple of inches of snow....like the october event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Models overall in fairly solid agreement 36 hours out...Very similar have and have-nots as the October event, just less overall snow totals where it actually does snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the euro has a higher grid resolution than the gfs... I seem to recall a discussion of model verification scores by some mets on the main forum earlier this year discussing how good each model was at which time frame. If I remember correctly, the euro was clearly superior to all others at days 3-8, but at day 2, I think it was the GFS or NAM (forget which) that was actually a little better. Of course, that was earlier this year, so who knows now whether that remains true. Maybe Tony or Adam can chime in when they have the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Even at Days 1 and 3, the Euro is marginally better (in general). IOW, you better have a good reason for throwing out its solution. For the tropics this year, I was using 2 parts Euro, 1 part GFS EnKF (which doesn't exist for snow), and 1 part UKMET with pretty good success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It will be a tough call for the NWS but I think they will be the trigger on watches this afternoon for lv and poc and depending on how this evenings and tonights runs go decide whether do make it a warning or an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Even at Days 1 and 3, the Euro is marginally better (in general). IOW, you better have a good reason for throwing out its solution. For the tropics this year, I was using 2 parts Euro, 1 part GFS EnKF (which doesn't exist for snow), and 1 part UKMET with pretty good success. What I find most interesting here is the JMA verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro still paints a backedge inch on the wunder weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Many people have said euro still has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Many people have said euro still has a warm bias Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sigh. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 WSW up for Monroe, Carbon, Sussex Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 310 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-071030- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0009.111208T0300Z-111208T1200Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 310 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...THE RAIN SHOULD START CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CHANGE OVER IN ALL AREAS BY VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD END AROUND THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...THE GREATEST COMMUTING IMPACT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING. BUT ANYONE DRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT COULD FACE DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE, SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SHOULD BE LESS THAN AVERAGE. * TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TERRAIN ROADWAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ /GIGI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At this time, my thinking for back home (Trenton area) is that *maybe* it could change to snow after midnight Wednesday night, but I doubt there's more than an inch. I expect less than that. And it might not even change over before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Disclaimer: Neither Ray nor I hacked into the program, that sliver of higher accums that cuts across Ewing and Mount Laurel is purely coincidental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Same areas that got hit with the Halloween storm to get hit again? (got 13.5" during that storm) Yup, farther N and W and elevation is still very much in the game according to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Same areas that got hit with the Halloween storm to get hit again? (got 13.5" during that storm) Cut it by 40-50% and that's about what you'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 lot of rain with this too...wouldn't surprise to see 3" amounts in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 no where for more rain to go and no extended freeze in sight makes for a very saturated tundra around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you wanted snow... don't look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you wanted snow... don't look at the NAM. Too late, I think that's why its so quiet in here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As 850s crash after 00z Thursday on the NAM, the deformation band (shown on previous runs) doesn't back the same punch across eastern PA. Hr 27-30 almost shows sort of a dry slot over the Lehigh Valley....maybe that is bogus in the end. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The NAM may be slightly improved from 18z.. didn't look like that to start. But the best thing is less overall precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The NAM may be slightly improved from 18z.. didn't look like that to start. But the best thing is less overall precip. Improved, in less chance of flooding.....maybe. Deformation band isn't as impressive though, say compared to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Improved, in less chance of flooding.....maybe. Deformation band isn't as impressive though, say compared to the 12z NAM. Slightly colder, too, as they are saying in the NYC thread - prob. not going to make a huge difference, but any extra snow is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Slightly colder, too, as they are saying in the NYC thread - prob. not going to make a huge difference, but any extra snow is good. There is a definite window of opportunity (even if it's only a few hours) for snow still......we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Joe Bastardi Nam in line with ideas I have on this storm.. rain changes to thumping heavy wet snow, heaviest in areas that got it in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 its racing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 its racing Some 00z raobs show 50-85 knots in that area between about 700 mb and 500 mb. That will advect the precipitation along rather briskly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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