fsu_wxgirl Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Glad to see slightly better agreement between the models this morning. (At least the GFS and ECM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 totally agree, this is going to be oct snowstorm but not as significant of snow accums. Anytime when boundary layer issues are around the city does poor. Anyone within 10 miles of the city and below 200 ft prob wont get much. Every 5 miles west or north of the city or gain of 50 ft of elev imho tack a half inch of snow on. only difference is this is nighttime, not day...might help Philly's case in getting a nudge more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 my thinking at this point -- Philly gets a coating at the Airport, a couple of inches in Mount Airy) N & W, Trenton get 1-3 Red Sky, Quakertown, and Chescowx get 3-4 Mike2010 gets 4-7 (Trappe/Collegeville's snowfall observers will report two inches more than whatever reality is. ) Looks good at this point. I'd be surprised at this point if numbers exceed Oct. hit for many. The Poconos Barbecue/Deck should see the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks good at this point. I'd be surprised at this point if numbers exceed Oct. hit for many. The Poconos Barbecue/Deck should see the most. More likely, Oct. snow totals divided by 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well if we divide Oct snow by 2 ill be looking at about 6.5 inches here 10th miles north of Allentown lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well if we divide Oct snow by 2 ill be looking at about 6.5 inches here 10th miles north of Allentown lol Yeah, potentially a few winners in the end, but for most of the subforum area it means 2 inches of less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 don't know if this is posted yet good but here is mount holly h w o HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 458 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-071000-SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-458 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH EVEN AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND END BY DAWN THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME FOR THIS EVENT IS SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF 5 OR 6 INCH VALUES IN THE POCONOS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 More likely, Oct. snow totals divided by 2. 0.6" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 only difference is this is nighttime, not day...might help Philly's case in getting a nudge more than a coating. I would give the GFS some modeling redemption with this one, I guess there were a couple of runs where it followed the farther se EC solution, but it did better in holding back the energy in the southern conus than the EC. We'll see if we stay in it. The models really had us in the sweet spot of the entrance region of the h2.5 jet on Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 philly off the new nam looks to change over before hr 45 after hr 42...nam is probably still a 1-3 for the city that falls, not accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 philly off the new nam looks to change over before hr 45 after hr 42...nam is probably still a 1-3 for the city that falls, not accumulates. Wow just saw the twister data that the freezing level at PHL drops from 725 mb at 1 am to 987 mb at 4 am. North and west of us, there is going to be something sweet going on, jet staying on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 clown map from 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 clown map from 12z nam Disclaimer: Neither Ray nor I hacked into the program, that sliver of higher accums that cuts across Ewing and Mount Laurel is purely coincidental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 clown map from 12z nam The 12Z NAM clown hates New Castle County for some reason...I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 With the models warmer than before, I'll take anything I can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 With the models warmer than before, I'll take anything I can get at this point. thats cause the low track is closer, hence warmer solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 12z GFS is the warmest I've seen any model so far. It brings less than 1" in Allentown and less than 4" in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At this point, I'd say Philly and the immediate burbs are looking at cold rain with a changeover to some wet flakes at the end... No blocking, southern stream being stronger (pretty active STJ shoulda known)... Oo well. I hate to say it .. Typical la Nina with no blocking.. The -EPO and And PNA gave us a shot... But too much going against this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 clown map from 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The Euro is coming in much warmer, wet not white for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 euro is not the way to go when system is this close. It's best to look at gfs and nam I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The Euro is coming in much warmer, wet not white for most yup, low tracking closer, slowing down the movement of cold air eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anyone care to reply for thermal layers out towards KMDT? I am on my iphone and cannot see the maps well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 euro is not the way to go when system is this close. It's best to look at gfs and nam I would think. Nonsense. The Euro is the best model (in general) 12, 24, 96, 144 or 192 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Nonsense. The Euro is the best model (in general) 12, 24, 96, 144 or 192 hours out. Since i do not get the images for another hour yet thru accu pro..what about the ABE region? All rain on the ECM or ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 euro is not the way to go when system is this close. It's best to look at gfs and nam I would think. the euro has a higher grid resolution than the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Since i do not get the images for another hour yet thru accu pro..what about the ABE region? All rain on the ECM or ? Eyeballing, ABE is on the edge of <2 and 2-4 and MPO is 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Eyeballing, ABE is on the edge of <2 and 2-4 and MPO is 4-8 Thank you..So it looks like a light snowfall still in the game in this area then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thank you..So it looks like a light snowfall still in the game in this area then.. Yup, farther N and W and elevation is still very much in the game according to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.