dssbss Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Big Difference between bolaris and CBS3....bolais was talki 3 plus for burbs while CBS was talking a few wet flakes in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 October 29th, Part Deux. Hopefully the winds won't be as bad. My generator needs a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 October 29th, Part Deux. Yes, kinda, but from a snow path aspect, not from a destructive aspect. Leaves were the issue for the generators humming, not the snow alone. I think that tomorrow by 12z we should have a good idea with the nam slipping into its "comfort" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z NAM starting to get into its wheelhouse. Couldn't post the clown map but a solid hit. 6-8 It's still outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hopefully the winds won't be as bad. My generator needs a break. As others have noted, at least the leafs are off the trees now. Hopefully IF this does pan out, it will be a "typical" snowfall and not the "freak of nature" we experienced in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I have a hard time believing it will be anything like oct storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z NAM starting to get into its wheelhouse. Couldn't post the clown map but a solid hit. 6-8 It's still outside of 48 hours. The NAM has a wheelhouse? In all seriousness, I wouldn't use the old NAM outside of 24 hours and only for dynamic events (like this has a chance to be). I don't know how much they've improved the NAM with this latest iteration, but judging by the way B_I talks about it, I wouldn't guess very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The NAM has a wheelhouse? In all seriousness, I wouldn't use the old NAM outside of 24 hours and only for dynamic events (like this has a chance to be). I don't know how much they've improved the NAM with this latest iteration, but judging by the way B_I talks about it, I wouldn't guess very much. I'm pretty leery about using the NAM at any point outside of 36, myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yes, kinda, but from a snow path aspect, not from a destructive aspect. Leaves were the issue for the generators humming, not the snow alone. I think that tomorrow by 12z we should have a good idea with the nam slipping into its "comfort" zone This is an important point to be made and I should of thought of that before I posted that. I am thinking more from a dynamic cooling perspective after a great deal of warmth in the area (where people will laugh at those of us in this forum for telling them it's going to snow). This has that same path/dynamic going on, but with no leaves, you just need snow plows and not power company trucks (I think...). Important distinction and I thank you for pointing it out/correcting me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is an important point to be made and I should of thought of that before I posted that. I am thinking more from a dynamic cooling perspective after a great deal of warmth in the area (where people will laugh at those of us in this forum for telling them it's going to snow). This has that same path/dynamic going on, but with no leaves, you just need snow plows and not power company trucks (I think...). Important distinction and I thank you for pointing it out/correcting me... This storm will be nothing like the last one power issue wise. No leaves on trees now, plus the snow will not be as heavy and wet. Only thing that could rival that, would be one hell of a windstorm, and I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i cant see soundings but u cant go off 85...i knoe 925mb temps are fine from.hr 60 on...but its the surface thats the issue Looking at the GFS on wunderground it goes rain at hr 63 to snow at 66 at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 wasn't the GFS significantly too warm on the last storm? not trying to be a weenie here, but shouldn't we be using caution on the gfs thermal profiles? either way, looks like this system (to my dismay) is gonna be juicy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 wasn't the GFS significantly too warm on the last storm? not trying to be a weenie here, but shouldn't we be using caution on the gfs thermal profiles? either way, looks like this system (to my dismay) is gonna be juicy.. Yeah, but the Euro was pretty good and it's pretty warm right now, too. The BL is my only concern with this system right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 wasn't the GFS significantly too warm on the last storm? not trying to be a weenie here, but shouldn't we be using caution on the gfs thermal profiles? either way, looks like this system (to my dismay) is gonna be juicy.. Yeah, but the Euro was pretty good and it's pretty warm right now, too. The BL is my only concern with this system right now. The Euro and GFS both had snow at some point around the region about 5 days out. Euro was more "right" than the GFS though overall with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah, but the Euro was pretty good and it's pretty warm right now, too. The BL is my only concern with this system right now. i figured as much. No doubt there's gonna be issues with the boundry layer towards the coast. But after that gfs debacle, i'd be more inclined to go with the euro temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 rain/snow has been introduced into the P&C forecast for philly burbs.. and from mt.holly @ 347pm afd: THERE STILL REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY BUT WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MAY OR MAY NOT FALL AS SNOW. ESPECIALLY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS BEFORE THE COLD AIR QUITE MAKES IT TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE DO MENTION A MIX OF SNOW FROM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anyone have a link to the clown maps? I can never find them for the life of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1056318 The Euro and GFS both had snow at some point around the region about 5 days out. Euro was more "right" than the GFS though overall with it. The 12z run Friday Euro snow accumulation prog was pretty close to what accumulated. Going by that standard that would be its night run tomorrow night. (00z Wed run). BTW off the 00z 500 mb analysis and their 6-12hr fcsts the euro looked better with the trof in the northern plains, the gfs in the southern Rockies, either locale "not the nam". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 12z run Friday Euro snow accumulation prog was pretty close to what accumulated. Going by that standard that would be its night run tomorrow night. (00z Wed run). BTW off the 00z 500 mb analysis and their 6-12hr fcsts the euro looked better with the trof in the northern plains, the gfs in the southern Rockies, either locale "not the nam". Yeah, I don't put too much thought into the NAM until at least within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anyone have a link to the clown maps? I can never find them for the life of me http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://www.wxcaster....models_main.htm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 going off the new nam, the city changes over between hr 54-57, with atleast .1 of frozen...up by abe they change over between 51-54...again, this is going to be an elevation/ distance awy from the city type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 going off the new nam, the city changes over between hr 54-57, with atleast .1 of frozen...up by abe they change over between 51-54...again, this is going to be an elevation/ distance awy from the city type storm. Maybe similar to the October storm? I didn't make out badly with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Maybe similar to the October storm? I didn't make out badly with that one. the oct storm had more going for it than this one imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the oct storm had more going for it than this one imho. I think the dynamics could help if the LP placement doesn't go NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anyone catch Hurricane Schwartz's forecast a few minutes ago? I was watching the awful Monday Night Football game and lost track of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 EC shows snow at hour 57 into Philly but you notice that the majority of the snow falls north and west. A couple of inches in the burbs, perhaps 4-6 across the Poconos (there's more snow before this frame to the north/west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 my thinking at this point -- Philly gets a coating at the Airport, a couple of inches in Mount Airy) N & W, Trenton get 1-3 Red Sky, Quakertown, and Chescowx get 3-4 Mike2010 gets 4-7 (Trappe/Collegeville's snowfall observers will report two inches more than whatever reality is. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 my thinking at this point -- Philly gets a coating at the Airport, a couple of inches in Mount Airy) N & W, Trenton get 1-3 Red Sky, Quakertown, and Chescowx get 3-4 Mike2010 gets 4-7 (Trappe/Collegeville's snowfall observers will report two inches more than whatever reality is. ) That's where my head is as well. Pocs, Berkshires, Central Apps (EDIT: and NNE - go eek.) big winners. I-95 sees a coating, decent accums in the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 my thinking at this point -- Philly gets a coating at the Airport, a couple of inches in Mount Airy) N & W, Trenton get 1-3 Red Sky, Quakertown, and Chescowx get 3-4 Mike2010 gets 4-7 (Trappe/Collegeville's snowfall observers will report two inches more than whatever reality is. ) That's where my head is as well. Pocs, Berkshires, Central Apps (EDIT: and NNE - go eek.) big winners. I-95 sees a coating, decent accums in the western burbs. totally agree, this is going to be oct snowstorm but not as significant of snow accums. Anytime when boundary layer issues are around the city does poor. Anyone within 10 miles of the city and below 200 ft prob wont get much. Every 5 miles once past 10 miles from the city west or north of the city or gain of 50 ft of elev imho tack a half inch of snow on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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