Harbourton Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Got that right. AM. Tapping moisture all the way to the east PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 See that hurricane Schwartz is in the house. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensemble mean snow swath is NW of the op. 2" isohyet right on I-95 from DCA to TTN, then all of N NJ/NYC/SNE get 2-4. Back into PA, 2" isohyet goes JST-AOO-MDT-SEG-IPT-NW of AVP... still like my idea of flurries on the backside for I-95 with heaviest snow swath from LNS-ABE for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensemble mean snow swath is NW of the op. 2" isohyet right on I-95 from DCA to TTN, then all of N NJ/NYC/SNE get 2-4. Back into PA, 2" isohyet goes JST-AOO-MDT-SEG-IPT-NW of AVP... still like my idea of flurries on the backside for I-95 with heaviest snow swath from LNS-ABE for our area. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think it's a given this will be a high QPF event with the southern stream tapping into the Gulf. It's just a question of what the p-type will be. I'm not sold on high QPF. Most of the mechanisms that generate uplift are weakening after around 0z Thursday and the shortwave is embedded in a fairly fast flow. It looks like a moderate QPF event to me (maybe isolated 1" plus, esp so the SE). However, a few of the GEFs members from 12z delayed the weakening/deamplification of the shortwave, even developing a closed contour at 500mb near the Delmarva. Such a scenario would probably result in at least short lived high precipitation intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lock it up. FEB, I "think" we maybe in a good spot for this one fingers crossed :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm not sold on high QPF. Most of the mechanisms that generate uplift are weakening after around 0z Thursday and the shortwave is embedded in a fairly fast flow. It looks like a moderate QPF event to me (maybe isolated 1" plus, esp so the SE). However, a few of the GEFs members from 12z delayed the weakening/deamplification of the shortwave, even developing a closed contour at 500mb near the Delmarva. Such a scenario would probably result in at least short lived high precipitation intensity. With the influx of moisture from the Gulf, I suspect we'll see a widespread 1"+ event. I guess it depends on you definition from there whether that is "high QPF" or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 FEB, I "think" we maybe in a good spot for this one fingers crossed :snowing: Fingers are crossed! It would be amazing to see another snowstorm in a sea of warmth, just like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 smh. The last time I agreed with him, Oct 29 happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 63 hours on the NAM. NW of I-95 getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Henrys map is BS. Snow does not fall on the Appalachians and then skips the Lehigh Valley and Poconos and then falls on Berkshires. Its like skipping the entire Rockies to say it is only going to snow in Denver. Henry better get his sh*& together if he wants to be believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 any soundings off the 18 z nam yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 any soundings off the 18 z nam yet for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anybody see the clown map for the 12z NAM? That woke me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 any soundings off the 18 z nam yet they come out as the runs coming out...basically 30 miles outside the cities ahybrid crushing snow...cities get an inch in the cities...immediat e burbs tack on another inch...ll cold is hurting the cities like oct storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 6Z run didn't wake me up as it was a beautiful dream and the 12Z run looked sweet. The 18Z run looks awfully like an October 29 redeux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anybody see the clown map for the 12z NAM? That woke me up! This would be some display of Dynamic Cooling for that to happen Glenn --- wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z GFS looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z GFS looks good? i cant see soundings but u cant go off 85...i knoe 925mb temps are fine from.hr 60 on...but its the surface thats the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i cant see soundings but u cant go off 85...i knoe 925mb temps are fine from.hr 60 on...but its the surface thats the issue 60 is warm from 925 down. This is from near Cinnaminson, but the KOP sounding looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Posted this in the Mid-Atlantic forum, but I thought you all might like to see it, too. Philly love... 4"? I won't bother reposting the discussion... it's here if you want to read it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z NAM starting to get into its wheelhouse. Couldn't post the clown map but a solid hit. 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Gfs soundings look like rain snow mix...surface in the mid 30s...just outside there diff story prob...sounds like oct storm all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anybody see the clown map for the 12z NAM? That woke me up! Yes, but is it believable? I say probably- Its the pearl harbor day snow attack Glen.(see my blog predicted in Sept) People still remember Halloween here in the LV where it was canceled for many municipalities because of no power. Their will be a run to the store not for bread but for generators and batteries. People were without power for four days. They will need reassurance that this will not happen again. I am sure you guys at NBC can offer them this reassurance. http://msiegelweatherman.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bolaris is on board for heavy snow, now the question is, are you Glenn!?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Glenn needs to show the nam run on tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 October 29th, Part Deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Banter thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30679-december-7-8-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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