am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Let's continue talking about Thursday's threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Didn't know you knew we might have a chance of snow that far out "February 7-8 Snow Threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 lolzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the gfs is rain for about everyone from abe south, though the lehigh valley switches over for a little at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well it looks like out towards the SUS Valley (my area LNS) maybe in the best spot for accumulating snows. Wonder if temps will be an issue out this way or not. I haven't checked temps yet so maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 and i was going to capture that error, to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ohh Mr. Warminista Adam makes a snow threat thread. Yes for big snow models too warm more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ohh Mr. Warminista Adam makes a snow threat thread. Yes for big snow models too warm more later. Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 While is early in the game, and subject to change, it seems as if the coal regions and the Poconos MIGHT have the best chances at some wintry conditions later this week. Especially the way some of you more weather saavy folks are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nam 6z abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nam 6z abe You're better off looking at soundings. fwiw..it doesn't take into account the mid levels . that said, allentown could** make out decent. here's the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good post Why don't you go further out of your way to crush the hopes of our fine posters. You should rename yourself heely mcheelson. This will be our Dec 5 snowfall, just not on Dec 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You're better off looking at soundings. fwiw..it doesn't take into account the mid levels . that said, allentown could** make out decent. here's the individuals. that was for the nam bri, where abe does do well... the gfs has very little for them as well as phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that was for the nam bri, where abe does do well... the gfs has very little for them as well as phl lol, maybe im just bitter at it b.c the halloween storm, it showed 2.2(22") snow for phl.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah 12z gfs sliding south/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 john in the NYC about the euro: "1004mb surface low just off of Ocean City Maryland at 66 hrs. Precip for everybody but it looks like rain. Best dynamics still south of us so far. 40 F line running just east of NYC. " sounds warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has a widespread 2-4" from RIC to PWM with 4-8 back in the WV/VA Apps. I guess this was the run everyone was waiting for. All we need now is an ALEET ALEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has a widespread 2-4" from RIC to PWM with 4-8 back in the WV/VA Apps. I guess this was the run everyone was waiting for. All we need now is an ALEET ALEET. I think this is one of those storms, that will have a good nw band to it. These type of s/w's that have the deformation or stretch out ahead of it to the northeast seem to produce that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has a widespread 2-4" from RIC to PWM with 4-8 back in the WV/VA Apps. I guess this was the run everyone was waiting for. All we need now is an ALEET ALEET. Question is are you buying it??????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think this is one of those storms, that will have a good nw band to it. These type of s/w's that have the deformation or stretch out ahead of it to the northeast seem to produce that feature. Yeah, if that decent deepening occurs and the 850s crash from dynamical cooling, a good def band would set up. Question is are you buying it??????????? Not yet. Surface temps are still really warm and we need a lot of dynamical cooling to overcome it. If we're still seeing the same solution tomorrow at this time, then I'll be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, nice edit, Rib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm going to stick to my flurry forecast. That way when I wake up to a nice coating of snow I'm pleasantly surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah, if that decent deepening occurs and the 850s crash from dynamical cooling, a good def band would set up. Not yet. Surface temps are still really warm and we need a lot of dynamical cooling to overcome it. If we're still seeing the same solution tomorrow at this time, then I'll be on board. Thanks, whats your biggest concern, sliding out to sea, or coming too far west and then temps are an issue? or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Thanks, whats your biggest concern, sliding out to sea, or coming too far west and then temps are an issue? or both It's the BL temps and the rapid cyclogenesis needed to cool the column... this is the first run to really deepen it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's the BL temps and the rapid cyclogenesis needed to cool the column... this is the first run to really deepen it like that. Agreed...if there were ever a picture of thread the needle inn the dictionary this storm may fit that bill perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has a widespread 2-4" from RIC to PWM with 4-8 back in the WV/VA Apps. I guess this was the run everyone was waiting for. All we need now is an ALEET ALEET. In this pattern, that would be like a Christmas gift. Now this is all depending on the models staying consistent, and we know how that can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Agreed...if there were ever a picture of thread the needle inn the dictionary this storm may fit that bill perfectly. You've got to love dynamically driven snowstorms. They're awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If we can pull something like this out in our current setup, I think all hope is not lost for this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some years it wants to snow whatever the pattern. Any way it will add to our record breaking precip totals. This year's October snowfall was just an anomoly or a taste of what's to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some years it wants to snow whatever the pattern. Any way it will add to our record breaking precip totals. This year's October snowfall was just an anomoly or a taste of what's to come? I think it's a given this will be a high QPF event with the southern stream tapping into the Gulf. It's just a question of what the p-type will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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