Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 And I remember numerous times back then the waves being under-forecasted and coming in far more amplified because of the lack of blocking and +NAO. This may be different and the one time in 100 we get slammed in a pattern like this, but I have to think the odds are against us. I feel the odds are always against us. Even in excellent patterns we can't guarantee anything to produce. Yes some instances have crappier odds than others but that is no reason to write it off. Trust me, I won't be excited either until I see flakes falling from the sky, cold temps and a slug of moisture on the radar aimed right at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think the key to the track will be the strength of the lead wave over Nova Scotia. The weaker the wave, the closer the second low will track to us since the front will stall closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 We have the PNA ridge and the -EPO in our favor. The NAO and AO are still positive but trending downwards ( per the graphs ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Define SWFE because you just confused me with this post. Note the 850mb wind direction. H5 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Only two SREF members even have the storm remotely close to where the NAM is showing it. Just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 From the Mid-Atlantic thread. Here is the 12z Ukie. Looks too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GGEM is back on board. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GGEM is back on board. http://www.weatherof...ast/478_100.gif I've always found it near impossible to read these maps, but doesn't that show the 540-dam thickness contour barely even touching NW NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I've always found it near impossible to read these maps, but doesn't that show the 540-dam thickness contour barely even touching NW NJ? Yes, and a low pressure southeast of the benchmark..not as far west as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I've always found it near impossible to read these maps, but doesn't that show the 540-dam thickness contour barely even touching NW NJ? It looks like the 540 thickness cuts through NYC. I barely can see it myself. I wish they can make these maps easier to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GEFS If only it verifies... :weenie: I read elsewhere that the system being 3-6 hours slower than on previous runs of the GFS has helped lead it to a colder solution. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GEFS 1) That is previous precip and current 850 temps, means very little 2) Surface could be torching, no way to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Spaghetti plots place most of the GEFS members to the left of the operational run at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 2) Surface could be torching, no way to know It's definitely not torching, the 40 F contour is over Montauk at 72 hours. But it's a cooling process from 66-72 on the mean, in a very similar fashion to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's definitely not torching, the 40 F contour is over Montauk at 72 hours. But it's a cooling process from 66-72 on the mean, in a very similar fashion to the NAM. I am sure there are some warm layers in there, its a very crappy antecedent airmass both in temperature and dew point and not much mechanism to artificially cool the column as a strung out vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that gefs is amp'd to my surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 GEFS have a signal for something around 120 hr. Just FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I am sure there are some warm layers in there, its a very crappy antecedent airmass both in temperature and dew point and not much mechanism to artificially cool the column as a strung out vort. Def. agreed regarding the antecedent airmass. The means aren't too warm and don't indicate any warm layers, but I am sure some of them are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Heh. Surprisingly, a bunch of solutions in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Closer look at the GGEM from ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think the key to the track will be the strength of the lead wave over Nova Scotia. The weaker the wave, the closer the second low will track to us since the front will stall closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1165023 Def. a good point. It's interesting how the PV really pressing on the upper level flow may actually be helping us a little bit here. A shortwave that is intense like this would usually be too warm given the pattern we are in. But still, the timing of that PV has to be literally perfectly in-sync with the shortwave. Otherwise, it could come a hair farther west and rain, or get completely suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If I had to guess, the 12z euro is going to show a rain to wet snow bomb...and truthfully im starting to buy it for any areas just inland with elevation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 More ridging ahead of the vort at 42 on the Euro, but the vort is weaker itself. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Heh. Surprisingly, a bunch of solutions in here Yeah always good to have some ensemble support. If we get this, its 100% threading the needle because there is no block in sight to stop the storm from coming inland on us. As bluewave said earlier, the first wave over Nova Soctia pulls the entire trough out to the east and the storm is not strong enough to buck the overall flow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 One thing is for sure, it's definitely farther west with the shortwave itself at 54 when compared to the NAM. Enough for me to notice it just based on the individual map itself. Might be slower. Not too dissimilar to the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Definitely more amplified than 00z at 60 hrs. 1008mb low is inland over North Carolina. It looks like it's going to shoot this northeast just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 1004mb surface low just off of Ocean City Maryland at 66 hrs. Precip for everybody but it looks like rain. Best dynamics still south of us so far. 40 F line running just east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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