psv88 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ridiculous fog this morning, lowest visibility we have seen in a long time here in central nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z Nam looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You talk about overdoing precipitation on a weak wave, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You talk about overdoing precipitation on a weak wave, this is it. World Rain Forest model WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At hour 72 ( when the precip falls ) NYC is at 32 degrees. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At hour 72 ( when the precip falls ) NYC is at 32 degrees. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt Yes, it's .65" qpf, 6 hours before it's falls to freezing. And .07" after that. It's rain changing to wet snow on the NAM. And I also agree the qpf is probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yes, it's .65" qpf, 6 hours before it's falls to freezing. And .07" after that. It's rain changing to wet snow on the NAM. And I also agree the qpf is probably overdone. The graphical output paints a different picture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The graphical output paints a different picture: huh? You are looking at an 84 hr total QPF map, its going to rain this week before any storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yes, it's .65" qpf, 6 hours before it's falls to freezing. And .07" after that. It's rain changing to wet snow on the NAM. And I also agree the qpf is probably overdone. For what it is worth (and probably not much - I'm at work and don't have access to BUFKIT or anything), Wunderground has the area switching over to snow by hour 66 down to the Monmouth/Ocean county border with about 0.3-0.5" QPF presumably falling as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Taken verbatim it would be rain changing to a pretty good rate of heavy wet snow....when the heavy precip comes in all layers are sufficiently cold except right at surface, wind almost due north and it's December....at face value would likely be at least coating to severL inches on cold surfaces from cnj north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z Nam text soundings show 6.3 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 For what it is worth (and probably not much - I'm at work and don't have access to BUFKIT or anything), Wunderground has the area switching over to snow by hour 66 down to the Monmouth/Ocean county border with about 0.3-0.5" QPF presumably falling as snow. On ewall, precip type graph has it change in NYC and Western LI sometime between 66-69hrs. Looks it lasts between 6 to 9hrs, with temps maybe 32-34F: http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z Nam text soundings show 6.3 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt Ill quit my job if... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 huh? You are looking at an 84 hr total QPF map, its going to rain this week before any storm.... I edited my post. It still shows more than .67 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Shift northwest on the GFS .Improvements from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 getting close to a decent event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 huh? You are looking at an 84 hr total QPF map, its going to rain this week before any storm.... Btw I thought I had the 48 hour option chosen, but in the end edited to show only the 24 hour period before hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 getting close to a decent event here Yet others will try to make this seem as an impossible event/solution. Ok, its terrible setup but timing really may end up being perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yet others will try to make this seem as an impossible event/solution. Ok, its terrible setup but timing really may end up being perfect. It is not impossible. It is just highly, highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The NAM sped up the wave significantly on the 12z run and weakened the vorticity, which is usually not a good sign at this range. The GFS seemed to come back the other way a slight bit. The point is that a few miles in either direction and we're talking cold rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is not impossible. Nothing is impossible. It is just highly, highly unlikely. That may be true, but as time goes on it is looking less and less unlikely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's just so unlikely in this +NAO dominated pattern that it's hard to have much excitement here. Either the wave gets sheared out and exits out to sea, or the wave is stronger and it rides inland. These are patterns that favor the Midwest, not us. Again, think back to 07-08 for reasons why these setups are very often duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's just so unlikely in this +NAO dominated pattern that it's hard to have much excitement here. Either the wave gets sheared out and exits out to sea, or the wave is stronger and it rides inland. These are patterns that favor the Midwest, not us. Again, think back to 07-08 for reasons why these setups are very often duds. It is unlikely but it's not impossible. Nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather. Not sure where you got this idea.... lol. Plenty of things are impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's just so unlikely in this +NAO dominated pattern that it's hard to have much excitement here. Either the wave gets sheared out and exits out to sea, or the wave is stronger and it rides inland. These are patterns that favor the Midwest, not us. Again, think back to 07-08 for reasons why these setups are very often duds. 07-08 was SWFE dominated. This is a coastal. Not saying it's easy to get this right in the current pattern but it's a different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The shortwave is de-amplifying rapidly as it traverses east thanks to the influence of the height field to the north. That is actually "saving us" in this situation (aka giving us more than a 0% chance), so although it is a southwest flow event it is not your typical one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not sure where you got this idea.... lol. Plenty of things are impossible. Actually plenty of things are impossible in basically every subject you can think of. I never like it when people say nothing is impossible because it's simply untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 07-08 was SWFE dominated. This is a coastal. Not saying it's easy to get this right in the current pattern but it's a different animal. And I remember numerous times back then the waves being under-forecasted and coming in far more amplified because of the lack of blocking and +NAO. This may be different and the one time in 100 we get slammed in a pattern like this, but I have to think the odds are against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The shortwave is de-amplifying rapidly as it traverses east thanks to the influence of the height field to the north. That is actually "saving us" in this situation (aka giving us more than a 0% chance), so although it is a southwest flow event it is not your typical one. Define SWFE because you just confused me with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.