ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Always good to have the 540 thickness contour over State College. The NAO is going negative and we can get snowstorms in bad patterns, ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Rough night in here tonight, lol. Euro clipping the area with some mod to heavy precip and hr 72 and 78. Heavier towards the coast. 1002mb low on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Cant say this is a bad sign going deeper into winter. Storms are still trying to find the east coast, not to mention the storm train remains active. It is highly unlikely we see snow out of this one, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Cant say this is a bad sign going deeper into winter. Storms are still trying to find the east coast, not to mention the storm train remains active. It is highly unlikely we see snow out of this one, tho. The Euro just followed the Ukie. So now we have the NAM and Euro vs GFS and GGEM. The EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Euro just followed the Ukie. So now we have the NAM and Euro vs GFS and GGEM. The EE rule? so a cold rain or nothing? if this was a legit snow threat i'd care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Euro just followed the Ukie. So now we have the NAM and Euro vs GFS and GGEM. The EE rule? GFS is still changing 25-50 miles each run. the only thing interesting about the euro is its ensembles have been similar to this for many runs in a row. Regardless of what happens rain is the name of the game. Over all this is a classic case of the EURO following the UKMET and the Canadain following the RGEM. something will have to give come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Cant say this is a bad sign going deeper into winter. Storms are still trying to find the east coast, not to mention the storm train remains active. It is highly unlikely we see snow out of this one, tho. Last 2 winters have spoiled people they will think every threat is a snow threat. This one remains a rain threat cold air will not come in fast enough to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Euro just followed the Ukie. So now we have the NAM and Euro vs GFS and GGEM. The EE rule? I don't think it will be quite as disorganized as the GFS shows, or as amped as the NAM. As long as we track it, we might as well hold on to that small chance for snow. Maybe rain to some snow. I mean, really, we don't know for sure how fast the cold will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Cant say this is a bad sign going deeper into winter. Storms are still trying to find the east coast, not to mention the storm train remains active. It is highly unlikely we see snow out of this one, tho. Probably true. And especially agreed regarding the end of your post. These types of patterns just don't support snowfall events at this latitude. Any snow threat is definitely questionable until we get to a much closer lead time in this pattern. And even then, you just never know. When I was a little younger (05-06/07-08/etc), we had similar patterns to this one (or at least unfavorable patterns in general) I was humbled big time trying to forecast winter weather in those patterns and learning the hard way. Many busts later...it becomes more obvious which events have a chance at producing something despite being slightly unfavorable. Jan 26 2011 was one of them (remember the warm boundary later initially on the models)...and that eventually worked out because the pattern was supportive of such a system. This time, it's not. So it's not even worth investing the time when it's like a needle in a haystack trying to get any snow threat to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it will be quite as disorganized as the GFS shows, or as amped as the NAM. As long as we track it, we might as well hold on to that small chance for snow. Maybe rain to some snow. NAM has been a better then usual model lately but this time it is over done with the storm. Going to be interesting to see how much rain we end up getting out of this one providing it does not go out to sea and that the GFS is still out on a date with Ms flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 My only comment was that you all thought the 00z GFS was accurate and showing the most likely solution and now the ECM just essentially switched places with the GFS (in regards to storm track) ...Have a good night PS did not say it was showing snow in NYC region and still not.... PSS... The reason that i was posting in here in reference to the storm is because it is the most active region compared to my region...and I use to gain additional great knowledge from posters but lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 My only comment was that you all thought the 00z GFS was accurate and showing the most likely solution and now the ECM just essentially switched places with the GFS (in regards to storm track) .. To be fair, I think most of the responses were to your comments earlier today. And that's fair, everybody has their opinion. That's what these forums are really for...mature arguments and discussion on information/opinions regarding the weather. Sometimes the arguments get a little less mature, and that's fine as long as it doesn't get too out of hand. Opinions are better off respected. We'll see how this all works out in a few days..my money is on the fact that there is no snow in the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Is that some greenland blocking showing up on the D6-7 EURO? Edit, nevermind, just was some transient ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 To be fair, I think most of the responses were to your comments earlier today. And that's fair, everybody has their opinion. That's what these forums are really for...mature arguments and discussion on information/opinions regarding the weather. Sometimes the arguments get a little less mature, and that's fine as long as it doesn't get too out of hand. Opinions are better off respected. We'll see how this all works out in a few days..my money is on the fact that there is no snow in the general area. Im actually starting to like my chances on some snow up this way.. Then again.. it all depends on your def. of "general area" And when I say snow it can either be accumulating or just in the air.. Anything to change the mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Quite a change on the SREF's...most of the members who had the big wrapped up solution have gone much less amplified or have no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well, we have our first weenie run of meteorological winter. Wait until you guys wake up and see the 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 00z on left and 6 Z on right ... GFS starting to come back more towards the NW again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 81-84 on the NAM... I would guess it is a solid 6-10" for the city if this run played out, unfortunately it is the NAM at 84 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ridiculously dense fog this morning. Very dangerous driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well, correcting for the nogaps' biases puts this surface low over Buffalo. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good ole DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well, correcting for the nogaps' biases puts this surface low over Buffalo. Congrats. Since when is buffalo on the atlantic coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 6z NAM deeper northern vort over New England causing the trough split more and cause more cold air drain in front the storm. It also holds the PV back north, long enough, that it doesn't kick it out or shear the southern vort to pieces, like the GFS does. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Since when is buffalo on the atlantic coast? reading comprehension ftl. I said correcting for its biases. Its got a terrible SE bias amongst a 1,000 other problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 who was all excited about the ukmet because it showed a low pressure near us? ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 In my experience the UKMET has a terrible west and warm bias with east coast storms. Unless my memory is failing me, it was too warm with the October storm as well in this time range. who was all excited about the ukmet because it showed a low pressure near us? ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 In my experience the UKMET has a terrible west and warm bias with east coast storms. Unless my memory is failing me, it was too warm with the October storm as well in this time range. your memory fails you. Often times its too far east and deamplified, as we saw last year for several storms. So far this year it's been pretty good on the east coast, and at 500mb NH, it ranks at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks to me like your typical storm in this kind of +NAO pattern that continues trending west until it's a coastal hugger or worse. I remember tons of these back in 07-08 that ended up being New England or upstate NY specials. Unless this 6z NAM solution locks in on multiple models and stays there, I'm thinking nothing more than cold rain. No way we should get burned on these again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks to me like your typical storm in this kind of +NAO pattern that continues trending west until it's a coastal hugger or worse. I remember tons of these back in 07-08 that ended up being New England or upstate NY specials. Unless this 6z NAM solution locks in on multiple models and stays there, I'm thinking nothing more than cold rain. No way we should get burned on these again. its either that, or shredded out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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