BxEngine Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good thing we separated the obs/discussion and the bs banter threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This forum is hilarious You were all basically crying the model is garbage etc And now that it is south and east like the ECM Op was (not its ensembles) It becomes "accurate" One part of guidance and lets see if the ensembles agree with the OP... This run the Polar Vortex was the reason along with not closing off the low... Glad the pro's do not forecast the way some of you do ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This forum is hilarious You were all basically crying the model is garbage etc And now that it is south and east like the ECM Op was (not its ensembles) It becomes "accurate" One part of guidance and lets see if the ensembles agree with the OP... This run the Polar Vortex was the reason along with not closing off the low... Glad the pro's do not forecast the way some of you do ! You've been around weather boards for a while, why would you expect anything different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This forum is hilarious You were all basically crying the model is garbage etc And now that it is south and east like the ECM Op was (not its ensembles) It becomes "accurate" One part of guidance and lets see if the ensembles agree with the OP... This run the Polar Vortex was the reason along with not closing off the low... Glad the pro's do not forecast the way some of you do ! there is no way in sam's hell that vort is closing off in this pattern. Not over the deep south, over us. its accurate because it finally shows the solution which matches the pattern which the euro and cmc saw years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If it hasn't been posted, here is the 12z Euro ensemble mean. Different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This forum is hilarious You were all basically crying the model is garbage etc And now that it is south and east like the ECM Op was (not its ensembles) It becomes "accurate" One part of guidance and lets see if the ensembles agree with the OP... This run the Polar Vortex was the reason along with not closing off the low... Glad the pro's do not forecast the way some of you do ! this is... No, we just realize the PATTERN is aweful for any type of storm. Taking the PATTERN into consideration, as well as using MODELS as GUIDANCE , we've put 2+2 together which = 5! The euro and GGEM we're pretty progressive with this system, the pattern supports it. the GFS was showing an amplified solution, an outlier (unless you consider the 84hr NAM seriously at that range).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You've been around weather boards for a while, why would you expect anything different? Not sure maybe because when it was eastern there was a lot of professionalism & it was a great learning tool. Lately its nothing but jumping on a "model run" Denying a change to a colder pattern (despite guidance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If it hasn't been posted, here is the 12z Euro ensemble mean. Different than the op. that is still junky looking, some loose baginess maybe showing it n and w of the op overall, but that is nothing to get worked up over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this is... No, we just realize the PATTERN is aweful for any type of storm. Taking the PATTERN into consideration, as well as using MODELS as GUIDANCE , we've put 2+2 together which = 5! The euro and GGEM we're pretty progressive with this system, the pattern supports it. the GFS was showing an amplified solution, an outlier (unless you consider the 84hr NAM seriously at that range).... I do not have access to the 50 members but obviously this was clearly different then the op run ..no? And clearly the pattern in November was horrible (look at all the warmth ) and YET a snowstorm occurred in part of Northern New England..Yes? Pre thanksgiving? So this pattern coming up is much colder ..and yet we see people saying the pattern does not support snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that is still junky looking, some loose baginess maybe showing it n and w of the op overall, but that is nothing to get worked up over. You can write off this storm. I will not until all the models give in. I still think there is a chance of a storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not sure maybe because when it was eastern there was a lot of professionalism & it was a great learning tool. Lately its nothing but jumping on a "model run" Denying a change to a colder pattern (despite guidance) I think eastern days from 2006 would have laughed at the possibility of this storm..it has a chance, but very low. I think the banter would have been less, but trying to analyze a 102 hour GFS model would have been ridiculed harder. I'm not sure. But we aren't in that time anymore. Its different now. I think this storm has a very low shot...but its like trying to roll snake eyes on craps with one roll. Maybe 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I do not have access to the 50 members but obviously this was clearly different then the op run ..no? And clearly the pattern in November was horrible (look at all the warmth ) and YET a snowstorm occurred in part of Northern New England..Yes? Pre thanksgiving? So this pattern coming up is much colder ..and yet we see people saying the pattern does not support snow... wow.. NORTHERN NE? really?? my kid brother could of told you that they can get snow at that lat anytime after sept... no one is debating whether it can snow Matt. It's whether it not it can snow along the coast which we were saying. That is where a majority of the people in THE NYC subforum post. Can it happen , yes. Are the odds against the region? absolutely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 When are the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow.. NORTHERN NE? really?? my kid brother could of told you that they can get snow at that lat anytime after sept... no one is debating whether it can snow Matt. It's whether it not it can snow along the coast which we were saying. That is where a majority of the people in THE NYC subforum post. Can it happen , yes. Are the odds against the region? absolutely... Hey, NNE in the mountains at 300 miles of latitude or NYC suburbs at 100 feet....whats that among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS fwiw looks horrible in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow.. NORTHERN NE? really?? my kid brother could of told you that they can get snow at that lat anytime after sept... no one is debating whether it can snow Matt. It's whether it not it can snow along the coast which we were saying. That is where a majority of the people in THE NYC subforum post. Can it happen , yes. Are the odds against the region? absolutely... You are completely missing the point... Furthermore where did i say NYC specifically it would snow? Please show me...I will be waiting ...and please show me specifically where i said that it was guaranteed going to snow ANYWHERE.. What i stated was that there was potential in the time frame of the 6-10 th for the next shot at snow... Now ..just because ONE run of the GFS says differently there is still 72-96 hrs to go and also more guidance then the GFS... You show me where a forecaster (that is one that truly has a degree) bases a forecast off one model and one model run... Last time i checked it came down usually to a blend and 9 out of ten time its the ensembles.. This is out to sea not because "its too warm to snow" not because "the pattern does not support it" but because the polar vortex came to far south and the low pressure never closed off...Perhaps as well the vortex down in Southern Tx being "under modeled" but regardless this is just one piece of the guidance and not the "tell tale!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good thing we separated the obs/discussion and the bs banter threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z GGEM is still weak and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You are completely missing the point... Furthermore where did i say NYC specifically it would snow? Please show me...I will be waiting ...and please show me specifically where i said that it was guaranteed going to snow ANYWHERE.. What i stated was that there was potential in the time frame of the 6-10 th for the next shot at snow... Now ..just because ONE run of the GFS says differently there is still 72-96 hrs to go and also more guidance then the GFS... You show me where a forecaster (that is one that truly has a degree) bases a forecast off one model and one model run... Last time i checked it came down usually to a blend and 9 out of ten time its the ensembles.. This is out to sea not because "its too warm to snow" not because "the pattern does not support it" but because the polar vortex came to far south and the low pressure never closed off...Perhaps as well the vortex down in Southern Tx being "under modeled" but regardless this is just one piece of the guidance and not the "tell tale!" you're posting in the NYC subforum making a point for a possible "snow storm". It's implied. If you we're talking about the higher elevations or the catskills, there's a forum for that. But the fact your adament about this time frame implies you're making a case for the immediate NYC and burbs. Am i not mistaken? Its not 1 run!! the Euro, its ENSEMBLES and the ggem , taken into account with the overall set up, is not condusive for a coastal system. So no, we don't base the 'slim chance" of a storm on the 0z GFS, but moreso on past model guidance and recognizing the pattern. there;s obviously not a 0% chance to this, but the odds are against us. I was more optimistic about the Halloweenie storm. The GFS did not continue with it's over amplified solution with that pig of a PV sitting north of it. It wasn't reasonable. Is there a chance? absolutely. but it's slim. This was our window so to speak, but the odds are stacking against a 12z-18z solution. I'm still waiting for the NOGAPS to come in to say differently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good thing we separated the obs/discussion and the bs banter threads. I'm trying, man. Most of this stuff has been regarding the storm...so it's not really banter. But the post quality definitely stinks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z GEFS are south and east of the previous run. Not a good trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess none of you saw the 00Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 And as far as the PV coming "further" south on this run and shearing out the SW. The distance it moved was minimal.. 0z: 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess none of you saw the 00Z UKMET. What does the UK show out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess none of you saw the 00Z UKMET. Nope.. care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z Ukie Should make for an interesting euro run tonight it follows the ukmet sometimes. But lets remember now the ukmet is not the best model for us. Some times it's right sometimes it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z Ukie Always good to have the 540 thickness contour over State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Always good to have the 540 thickness contour over State College. The point is that every model has a different output and none of them should be taken seriously right now.I wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro shift west. The Ukie is usually an indicator to what the Euro will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 1000mb surface low directly over the 40/70 at 78 hrs on the Euro. Surface looks too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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