TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Will said, I guess it's cool that there's something to track. But this system has very little chance of bringing snow to anybody in this area that doesn't have good elevation. if Zucker was here he would be telling us his over 300 feet would give him all snow. Don't miss those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Monster hit for the Poconos and even parts of Orange Co at 84 hrs..as expected and probably the best case scenario. in KMGJ @ 84hrs all levels are below freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Im waiting for the next threat after this.....dont see anything here but the potential for cold behind the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow are the srefs amped, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Im waiting for the next threat after this.....dont see anything here but the potential for cold behind the rain This pattern looks like a relatively quiet one compared to what we've seen before, there's not much storms showing up on the GFS in the medium-long range. The only interesting scenario was a few 18z GEFS members showing a storm for Saturday, but it's only a few GEFS members from 1 run in the medium range, not too reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Twisterdata sounding shows a very borderline situation for Orange county, probably placing the rain/snow line over there. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yup, you got me. I'm definitely in denial. These models are clearly showing snow for our area. The pattern is great, too. Sorry had to work the closing shift so now I will address this. Can you point to me where i said specifically NYC would get snow? What i said and have been saying all along is that this would be the next potential shot at snow for parts of the region. Whether that is a rain changing to snow or all snow/sleet is up in the air. I also have been forecasting for the best chances to be North and W of I-95 aka N & W of the big cities. I also stated that Mt Holly also agrees with my thinking when I have been accused of wishcasting... I also mentioned that the ensemble means of the ECM..though faster then the GFS are very similar to what the GFS means have been... Just because the pattern is bad (where so far in bad patterns we have had a Historical East Coast snowstorm) does not mean that snow can not occur.. You do not need a - NAO or a - AO to get snowstorms..that is a misconception and you do not need those to get colder weather either... Jan 1994 was a severely positive NAO and a positive AO and some of the coldest air one could ever see..and if memory serves me correctly snow to go along with it... Lets see where the 00z suite goes with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There is no threat behind this, not sure what Alphy is seeing. Ehh, thought there was, it was on yesterdays models. Guess I'll just have to get excited about the cold.....I can finally build my rink again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You do not need a - NAO or a - AO to get snowstorms..that is a misconception and you do not need those to get colder weather either... Jan 1994 was a severely positive NAO and a positive AO and some of the coldest air one could ever see..and if memory serves me correctly snow to go along with it... Yes but you are working against an extremely stacked deck to get a snow event with a positive NAO...and 1994 was NOT a positive AO...it was a positive NAO, but a -AO with a monster block north of AK. This is not the pattern currently....to compare this pattern to 1994 would be like warm monger comparing the Dec 26, 2010 pattern to Dewc 1996 because both had a -NAO...or Dec 2001 having a -NAO...those didn't work out too well there. I don't think anybody is saying this "threat" cannot happen, but to poo-poo on any ideas that it can't is irresponsible IMHO because there is a lot more evidence it cannot happne vs it can, and that is not talking the norm when it is mostly true too. This is talking in a hostile pattern....hopefully everyone in I-95 and just NW gets a nice 3-6" snowfall from this, but but odds are way against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yes but you are working against an extremely stacked deck to get a snow event with a positive NAO...and 1994 was NOT a positive AO...it was a positive NAO, but a -AO with a monster block north of AK. This is not the pattern currently....to compare this pattern to 1994 would be like warm monger comparing the Dec 26, 2010 pattern to Dewc 1996 because both had a -NAO...or Dec 2001 having a -NAO...those didn't work out too well there. I don't think anybody is saying this "threat" cannot happen, but to poo-poo on any ideas that it can't is irresponsible IMHO because there is a lot more evidence it cannot happne vs it can, and that is not talking the norm when it is mostly true too. This is talking in a hostile pattern....hopefully everyone in I-95 and just NW gets a nice 3-6" snowfall from this, but but odds are way against it. This is the second time I have been told 1994 (Jan) did not have a positive AO.. I thought blue represented negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This is the second time I have been told 1994 (Jan) did not have a positive AO.. I thought blue represented negative? The CPC numbers have is negative http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table ...and at any rate, you should not get married to actual numbers, you should be looking at the pattern if you want to gauge the snow and cold threats...this is Jan 1994: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The CPC numbers have is negative http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table ...and at any rate, you should not get married to actual numbers, you should be looking at the pattern if you want to gauge the snow and cold threats...this is Jan 1994: Earthlight and I have been making this point for months, look at the 500mb charts, not the index charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Does anybody else think 3/16/07 is a decent analog for this storm? Without the cold high to the north, of course. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2007/us0316j3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Earthlight and I have been making this point for months, look at the 500mb charts, not the index charts. The index numbers are nice for a crude assessment when we are looking at patterns...but looking at the actual pattern is ALWAYS better than than looking at the numbers...the numbers only help us when we try to sort out years at a time. But each number can have a different pattern...hence Dec 1996 and Dec 2001 having a -NAO not doing diddly poo (to phrase Jim Mora) for most of the East Coast versus other years which were awesome and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS closed of 552dm over Western TN, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 through 54 on the GFS, h5 looks a little more consolidated with the shortwave , but not closed off like the 18z had it at the same time frame. Looks a little faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS closed of 552dm over Western TN, lol. damn you and your SV maps! i havent subscribed yet, nothing worth it yet. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol, completely rips the shortwave apart. So, it's that or rain. Which one do you guys want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z is a bit faster with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 gfs looks like the euro and canadian now, completely shearing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol, completely rips the shortwave apart. So, it's that or rain. Which one do you guys want? Sums up the pattern nicely...but I'm sure we will still follow it like it is Jan 26-27, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 EURO FTW! but the nogaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS looks like the Euro lol. The PV put this storm in the shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Big step towards the euro..These big canadian PV's really like to shear out these s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Sums up the pattern nicely...but I'm sure we will still follow it like it is Jan 26-27, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah the H5 energy is completely destroyed, i'd rather have it dry than humid and rainy, so I'll take this solution and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah the H5 energy is completely destroyed, i'd rather have it dry than humid and rainy, so I'll take this solution and run Agree 100 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wait, but the vort isn't sampled yet....oh wait, we can't use that one now either umm, how about the moon? is the moon cold? surely there must be something, what did the KMA do? Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Months like these make us be graceful for months like December 2010, January 1996, February 2010, January 2005, January 2011 and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wait, but the vort isn't sampled yet....oh wait, we can't use that one now either umm, how about the moon? is the moon cold? surely there must be something, what did the KMA do? Brazilian? Forgot to do my snow dance...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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