earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 If only we had some blocking in the Davis straight or to our NE...this is a good example of why blocking is so nice...it can repel these types of trends very easily. Yup. In all likelihood there will be a tiny narrow stripe of light to moderate snowfall with this system. The antecedent airmass is god awful and the system itself is walking a tightrope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I agree, we are still walking on very tight rope here. Still plenty of time for things to trend the wrong way. However, the Euro on our side, has gotent me a tiny bit hopeful. I know it can snow this early, but usually too much has to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z and 00z Euro worlds apart at just 36 hours...much warmer to start. Yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Like eduggs and I were speaking about earlier, on a synoptic scale there is no longer the push of cold air towards our area that the models were showing this afternoon. Obviously there are major 500mb differences too, but it is really hurting us that we're warmer to start at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro has the surface low almost on Southeast Long Island at 54 hrs. 850 0c line is in Sussex County NJ and then runs NE to barely touch Litchfield county CT. It has plenty of dynamics but there is no cold air to start so we are out of luck. Instead, electric bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro has the surface low almost on Southeast Long Island at 54 hrs. 850 0c line is in Sussex County NJ and then runs NE to barely touch Litchfield county CT. Electric bath. How does it look for back in central pa bud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is much warmer and further west. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 How does it look for back in central pa bud? Shippensburg is on the border of the heavy stuff at 54 hrs but it looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Shippensburg is on the border of the heavy stuff at 54 hrs but it looks decent Thanks. Might go a bit southeast next run. Near SE LI sounds a bit too wound up compared to anything else. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Heavy precip, awesome dynamics, but like john said its really warm. Its too bad because we are in the jackpot in term of qpf. Also a very quick mover. At hr 48 its on the VA/NC border and at hr 60 its off the coast of maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Heavy precip, awesome dynamics, but like john said its really warm. Its too bad because we are in the jackpot in term of qpf. Also a very quick mover. At hr 48 its on the VA/NC border and at hr 60 its off the coast of maine. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend east tomorrow since it seems like it always shifts east at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's a bummer to think about, but if we had antecedent cold this would be another 36 hr saves the day last minute miracle trend with the surface low tucked in just S of LI. Give it a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's a bummer to think about, but if we had antecedent cold this would be another 36 hr saves the day last minute miracle trend with the surface low tucked in just S of LI. Give it a few weeks. Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Where is the cold high pressure source? This is going to be a real difficult storm to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro has the surface low almost on Southeast Long Island at 54 hrs. 850 0c line is in Sussex County NJ and then runs NE to barely touch Litchfield county CT. It has plenty of dynamics but there is no cold air to start so we are out of luck. Instead, electric bath. takes it down to 996mb too and really bombs it out once it gets northeast of Boston, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Look what this system does around 78+ hrs on the Euro in the N Atlantic..holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM Stronger and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Seems to leave plenty of precip when 850s crash, like before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Seems to leave plenty of precip when 850s crash, like before. Be careful with the new maps. Those are the six hour precip maps every three hours. In essence the rain will be gone before it changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just thought i mention that the accuweather total accumulated snowfall image thru 60 hrs shows snowfall into New York CIty...( a light snowfall however) on the 6 Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Be careful with the new maps. Those are the six hour precip maps every three hours. In essence the rain will be gone before it changes to snow. Rain should change to Snow on this run... Just in time for it to end... Oye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is stronger but warmer (kinda like the NAM??)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 6z GFS LITERALLY looks like the 6z NAM at the same timeframe with the timing and placement of the low. 6z NAM Getting some better model agreement this morning folks... both show rain to heavy snow for places NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just thought i mention that the accuweather total accumulated snowfall image thru 60 hrs shows snowfall into New York CIty...( a light snowfall however) on the 6 Z NAM That's what I thought. Precip just doesn't stop THAT quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Things keep ticking warmer...but we all could still see a brief period of snow as the storm pulls away. Def. not what we were expecting based on the models from the past few days. That being said, important to keep things in perspective here. This pattern is absolutely terrible...so take whatever flakes you can get and run with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The models have been moving to weaken the first wave over Nova Scotia so they are bringing in the second low closer to our area. Look at the difference in the latest GFS from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Things probably continue to tick warmer, still time for more westward adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM has the precipitation type as snow west of Long Island at 51 hrs...when the radar looks like this. So it's not a total goose egg just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM at 06z...just going off these very crude maps...has more frozen precipitation over New Jersey than the 00z run. The thermal profiles also seem to be a hair more supportive. Nothing major..but 0.4 to 0.6" of liquid falling as snow is never a bad thing. http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype06-19.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The models have been moving to weaken the first wave over Nova Scotia so they are bringing in the second low closer to our area. Look at the difference in the latest GFS from yesterday. That wave weaker and more progressive, also means less cold air ahead of the storm. And less confluence to shear out the southern vort. I think the GFS is still doing this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.