Potential 12/8 Event Discussion Part I

[gkrangers]

  On 12/6/2011 at 3:56 AM, earthlight said:

I don't know what is going on at hour 51, but it does not look normal.

Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows.

[Alpha5]

  On 12/6/2011 at 3:55 AM, Alpha5 said:

GFS is not really more amplified, but 3 hours faster than the 18z. Compare the graphs and you can see that at 9 hours apart, they are pretty similar. THere are some differences in the trough orientation, but its not as pronounced as I originally thought

Yeah, looks like its a bit more amped than 18z and exactly 3 hours faster.....odd

[earthlight]

Looks like feedback

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_0z/f51.gif

[Alpha5]

  On 12/6/2011 at 3:57 AM, gkrangers said:

Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows.

sig worthy

[earthlight]

  On 12/6/2011 at 3:57 AM, gkrangers said:

Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows.

Or you could do the metfan. Post everything until something looks good, even if it's upside down.

[eduggs]

  On 12/6/2011 at 3:52 AM, earthlight said:

It's way faster and more amplified.

All the guidance has caught onto something today. I suspect the GGEM and Euro will follow suit. The UK was already amplified, west, and warm.

[earthlight]

The GFS is a hot mess with the vorticity at 51 hours. Yikes.

[jm1220]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:01 AM, eduggs said:

All the guidance has caught onto something today. I suspect the GGEM and Euro will follow suit. The UK was already amplified, west, and warm.

If the rest of tonight's suite comes in west, I'm throwing in the towel for NYC and east. The west trend in these kind of +NAO, no blocking regimes is almost never denied. I'd say the best shot at good snow (4-8") is roughly the I-81 corridor, Poconos and Catskills. Maybe up to the western suburbs get swiped by the snow at the end.

[LocoAko]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:01 AM, earthlight said:

The GFS is a hot mess with the vorticity at 51 hours. Yikes.

Why do you say that?

[JCsnow17]

Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad.

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:14 AM, JCsnow17 said:

Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad.

It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow.

[eduggs]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:14 AM, JCsnow17 said:

Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad.

It looks good to me. Heavy precip just southest of I-95 with moderate QPF along and to the immediate NW. Looks like a thin band of moderate snow. A GFS/NAM compromise would work out favorably and whiten the ground for most people here.

[LocoAko]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:19 AM, Snow88 said:

It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow.

Uh, don't mean to burst your bubble, but ya should be....

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:20 AM, LocoAko said:

Uh, don't mean to burst your bubble, but ya should be....

Yes I know but I am staying positive..

[mattinpa]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:21 AM, Snow88 said:

Yes I know but I am staying positive..

So would this be partly snow for the cities even with surface temp issues? I'm concerned that it won't accumulate much if it snows.

[JCsnow17]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:19 AM, Snow88 said:

It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow.

Surface temps start warm but def cool off some. At this point though, a period of wet snow would make me more than happy.

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:24 AM, mattinpa said:

So would this be partly snow for the cities even with surface temp issues? I'm concerned that it won't accumulate much if it snows.

That's a concern if the precip doesn't come down heavy enough or the temps don't drop at all. A small shift west like many have said will give the City mostly rain and a small shift east will give the City less precip and more colder weather.

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:25 AM, JCsnow17 said:

Surface temps start warm but def cool off some. At this point though, a period of wet snow would make me more than happy.

Same here

[Chris L]

in a pattern like this, some colder weather and light snow, would put us in a "winter" or "holiday" mood. So, yes I welcome it.

But the GFS is a bit convoluted.

[MJO812]

0z Ukie. It shoots ENE after this timeframe.

[MJO812]

Here is the 0z GGEM . Looks warm to start and then cools off.

http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif

[bates]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:21 AM, Snow88 said:

Yes I know but I am staying positive..

Why? Surface temps stay above freezing in NYC for the entire event duration on both the nam and gfs. In fact, well above freezing the bulk of the precip. Have a party with that.

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:44 AM, bates said:

Why? Surface temps stay above freezing in NYC for the entire event duration on both the nam and gfs. In fact, well above freezing the bulk of the precip. Have a party with that.

2 days left for the models to change

[MJO812]

GGEM really blows up this storm

[earthlight]

18z GEFS are west and warmer as well. Not a total torch though.

[WeatherFox]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:46 AM, Snow88 said:

2 days left for the models to change

We are looking better today than we looked yesterday for rain possibly changing to a little snow in NYC at the end of the Thursday event. We can follow the trends, hope and when all else fails wishcast .

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:55 AM, earthlight said:

18z GEFS are west and warmer as well. Not a total torch though.

It's hard to tell what happens between 48-60. It looks like a rain to snow situation for the area.

[dendrite]

  On 12/6/2011 at 4:57 AM, Snow88 said:

It's hard to tell what happens between 48-60. It looks like a rain to snow situation for the area.

54hr the 0C 850 is right over NYC so most likely RA at that point. There's about 0.25" after that so not much in the way accums taken literally, but of course it's a GEFS mean.

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2011 at 5:02 AM, dendrite said:

54hr the 0C 850 is right over NYC so most likely RA at that point. There's about 0.25" after that so not much in the way accums taken literally, but of course it's a GEFS mean.

Thanks

[earthlight]

Pretty much every model has trended faster with the shortwave itself, and is allowing less cold air penetration into the mid and low levels before the storm approaches. The ridging being stronger ahead of the system is not helping either. The dynamic snow solutions that almost got to the NYC area on the 12 and 18z NAM runs will never happen if this trend is correct.

We need to see a slower or less amplified trend over the next few model cycles--or more than likely this event will end up as a few inches over the higher elevations and the potential for a few flakes at the end for the rest of us.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/6/2011 at 5:11 AM, earthlight said:

Pretty much every model has trended faster with the shortwave itself, and is allowing less cold air penetration into the mid and low levels before the storm approaches. The ridging being stronger ahead of the system is not helping either. The dynamic snow solutions that almost got to the NYC area on the 12 and 18z NAM runs will never happen if this trend is correct.

We need to see a slower or less amplified trend over the next few model cycles--or more than likely this event will end up as a few inches over the higher elevations and the potential for a few flakes at the end for the rest of us.

If only we had some blocking in the Davis straight or to our NE...this is a good example of why blocking is so nice...it can repel these types of trends very easily.