gkrangers Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I don't know what is going on at hour 51, but it does not look normal. Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is not really more amplified, but 3 hours faster than the 18z. Compare the graphs and you can see that at 9 hours apart, they are pretty similar. THere are some differences in the trough orientation, but its not as pronounced as I originally thought Yeah, looks like its a bit more amped than 18z and exactly 3 hours faster.....odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like feedback http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_0z/f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows. sig worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hug it if it snows throw it out if it blows. Or you could do the metfan. Post everything until something looks good, even if it's upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's way faster and more amplified. All the guidance has caught onto something today. I suspect the GGEM and Euro will follow suit. The UK was already amplified, west, and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS is a hot mess with the vorticity at 51 hours. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 All the guidance has caught onto something today. I suspect the GGEM and Euro will follow suit. The UK was already amplified, west, and warm. If the rest of tonight's suite comes in west, I'm throwing in the towel for NYC and east. The west trend in these kind of +NAO, no blocking regimes is almost never denied. I'd say the best shot at good snow (4-8") is roughly the I-81 corridor, Poconos and Catskills. Maybe up to the western suburbs get swiped by the snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS is a hot mess with the vorticity at 51 hours. Yikes. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad. It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess nobody else likes the gfs. Doesnt look half bad. It looks good to me. Heavy precip just southest of I-95 with moderate QPF along and to the immediate NW. Looks like a thin band of moderate snow. A GFS/NAM compromise would work out favorably and whiten the ground for most people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow. Uh, don't mean to burst your bubble, but ya should be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Uh, don't mean to burst your bubble, but ya should be.... Yes I know but I am staying positive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yes I know but I am staying positive.. So would this be partly snow for the cities even with surface temp issues? I'm concerned that it won't accumulate much if it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It looks like it's rain to snow for the NYC area. Surface temps are warm though. Not worried about that just yet. There will most likely be more changes throughout the day tomorrow. Surface temps start warm but def cool off some. At this point though, a period of wet snow would make me more than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So would this be partly snow for the cities even with surface temp issues? I'm concerned that it won't accumulate much if it snows. That's a concern if the precip doesn't come down heavy enough or the temps don't drop at all. A small shift west like many have said will give the City mostly rain and a small shift east will give the City less precip and more colder weather. Surface temps start warm but def cool off some. At this point though, a period of wet snow would make me more than happy. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 in a pattern like this, some colder weather and light snow, would put us in a "winter" or "holiday" mood. So, yes I welcome it. But the GFS is a bit convoluted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 0z Ukie. It shoots ENE after this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is the 0z GGEM . Looks warm to start and then cools off. http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yes I know but I am staying positive.. Why? Surface temps stay above freezing in NYC for the entire event duration on both the nam and gfs. In fact, well above freezing the bulk of the precip. Have a party with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Why? Surface temps stay above freezing in NYC for the entire event duration on both the nam and gfs. In fact, well above freezing the bulk of the precip. Have a party with that. 2 days left for the models to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GGEM really blows up this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z GEFS are west and warmer as well. Not a total torch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 2 days left for the models to change We are looking better today than we looked yesterday for rain possibly changing to a little snow in NYC at the end of the Thursday event. We can follow the trends, hope and when all else fails wishcast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z GEFS are west and warmer as well. Not a total torch though. It's hard to tell what happens between 48-60. It looks like a rain to snow situation for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's hard to tell what happens between 48-60. It looks like a rain to snow situation for the area. 54hr the 0C 850 is right over NYC so most likely RA at that point. There's about 0.25" after that so not much in the way accums taken literally, but of course it's a GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 54hr the 0C 850 is right over NYC so most likely RA at that point. There's about 0.25" after that so not much in the way accums taken literally, but of course it's a GEFS mean. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pretty much every model has trended faster with the shortwave itself, and is allowing less cold air penetration into the mid and low levels before the storm approaches. The ridging being stronger ahead of the system is not helping either. The dynamic snow solutions that almost got to the NYC area on the 12 and 18z NAM runs will never happen if this trend is correct. We need to see a slower or less amplified trend over the next few model cycles--or more than likely this event will end up as a few inches over the higher elevations and the potential for a few flakes at the end for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pretty much every model has trended faster with the shortwave itself, and is allowing less cold air penetration into the mid and low levels before the storm approaches. The ridging being stronger ahead of the system is not helping either. The dynamic snow solutions that almost got to the NYC area on the 12 and 18z NAM runs will never happen if this trend is correct. We need to see a slower or less amplified trend over the next few model cycles--or more than likely this event will end up as a few inches over the higher elevations and the potential for a few flakes at the end for the rest of us. If only we had some blocking in the Davis straight or to our NE...this is a good example of why blocking is so nice...it can repel these types of trends very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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