Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm This is a really good site that helps one to compare different model runs side-by-side. If you want to compare the 00z NAM with the 18z NAM at the surface, it automatically lines up the times for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah. Looks like maybe a 2-4 hour period of wet snow for eastern NYC and western LI. Tight gradient like October most likely coming. This NAM run nicely highlights just how the location has to be right for NYC to get something decent out of this. Small west shift and it's heavy rain, small shift east and it's light precipitation. The models still haven't settled on a solution yet, we can still hope that the NAM goes a bit SE, but it's just as possible that the NW trend is not done just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ceiling for totals in the mid-Hudson Valley based on 0z guidance thus far? Anywhere near October? 3-6 would be the highest I would go anywhere right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This NAM run nicely highlights just how the location has to be right for NYC to get something decent out of this. Small west shift and it's heavy rain, small shift east and it's light precipitation. The models still haven't settled on a solution yet, we can still hope that the NAM goes a bit SE, but it's just as possible that the NW trend is not done just yet. When people refer to the "NW trend" its usually with regard to the surface low placement, not the 850 or surface 0 degree isotherm. This run the LP actually shifted east, not NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When people refer to the "NW trend" its usually with regard to the surface low placement, not the 850 or surface 0 degree isotherm. This run the LP actually shifted east, not NW. I didn't specify my point clear enough, I was trying to say that the snow zone could still shift some more west. Although for now I'm going with something close to the 0z/18z NAM, it's not impossible that the snow zone ends up a little more NW than currently modeled; at the same rate though it's just as possible that NYC/N NJ become the focus of the heavier snow again. Hopefully by tomorrow night we'll have a better idea of what this storm will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 00Z NAM BUFKIT shows temperature at 45F at 03:00 UTC Wednesday here in New Brunswick, falling to 33F around 09:00 UTC as we changeover to snow. 0.30" falls as snow, accumulating (we'll see about that ) to 2.7". Ends by 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The RGEM is displaying the same trends since 12z as the NAM - both in terms of height field and speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 A warmer solution has always been on the table for the area . I bet there are going to be more changes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 A warmer solution has always been on the table for the area . I bet there are going to be more changes tomorrow. This does seem like the type of pattern where the warmer trend wins out. I remain relatively optimistic but can easily see things turning to crap by tmrw aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The RGEM is displaying the same trends since 12z as the NAM - both in terms of height field and speed. Looks like the NAM. Maybe a hair stronger. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 just a serious mid-level jet streak at the base of the trof at 42hr on the NAM. 125kt at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the NAM. Maybe a hair stronger. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Looks a bit south of nam at 48, with more precip. Have to wait until ewall updates to see the temperature profile. But in this range, rgem is always warm. Tend to use this model inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just remembered this storm.....setup seems similar, we had a positively tilted trough that eventually allowed enough cold air to work in to change most places to snow http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12062009.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just remembered this storm.....setup seems similar, we had a positively tilted trough that eventually allowed enough cold air to work in to change most places to snow http://www.erh.noaa....rm12062009.html H5 was similar as well http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2009/us1205.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2009/us1206.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 snywx ought to be getting really excited right now based on these upper air charts. Damn! Someone pinch me please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just remembered this storm.....setup seems similar, we had a positively tilted trough that eventually allowed enough cold air to work in to change most places to snow http://www.erh.noaa....rm12062009.html That was actually the first analog that came into my mind as well... mentioned it a couple of pages back. It's not identical, but very close as that storm was also a rain to snow situation which favored interior areas. Hopefully this one at least brings more than rain to a slushy back end coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS coming in faster and more amplified so far as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yep this run looks like a NE PA and Catskills big hit. NW NJ edges in on it too eventually this run but not nearly as much as a little bit further N&W. Western parts of HV look to receive 10"+ strictly based off the 0z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Man, these are some pretty huge changes for a 36 hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Man, these are some pretty huge changes for a 36 hr forecast. What's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks to be a tick less amplified than the NAM, though, so that may be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS coming in faster and more amplified so far as well. yep pretty easy to see when comparing the height field at 33hr to the 18z run. wave a tad stronger too, closed off in nw AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 What's happening It's way faster and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here comes the GFS to drop the hammer on snywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's way faster and more amplified. Oh well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 At 48 hrs the surface low is 1004mb over North Carolina...this is gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is not really more amplified, but 3 hours faster than the 18z. Compare the graphs and you can see that at 9 hours apart, they are pretty similar. THere are some differences in the trough orientation, but its not as pronounced as I originally thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I don't know what is going on at hour 51, but it does not look normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At 48 hrs the surface low is 1004mb over North Carolina...this is gonna be close. Slightly faster and NE SFC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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