Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's not that hard to pull up the two runs in your browser and compare them. You can see the differences in the height field that way. what I do each time when looking at new runs. looking pretty big at 42hr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 what I do each time when looking at new runs. looking pretty big at 42hr.. Agreed...for the interior though (only a select few in this forum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 QPF bomb going off across sw VA at 51 hrs...850s slowly crashing south and the surface low is elongated...500 is dampening out quickly so we might be good still on this run (after a good bit of rain to start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 QPF bomb going off across sw VA at 51 hrs...850s slowly crashing south and the surface low is elongated...500 is dampening out quickly so we might be good still on this run (after a good bit of rain to start) 925mb and boundary layer are terrible...this one's for the mountains (on this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Marked changes in the sharpness and and vortmax placement of the two downstream shortwaves this run, especially the one immediately preceding our storm which was ushering in some cooler antecedent air in precious runs/other guidance. Nevertheless, we're still very much in the game even if things start out a lot warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Turns into a nice hit for N NJ at 57 hrs and the immediate suburbs. Mid level features might actually be a tick SE of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 925mb low closes off S of LI this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At 57 it looks like east of i95 cannot recover in time for the good qpf...northwest still gets plastered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Turns into a nice hit for N NJ at 57 hrs and the immediate suburbs. Mid level features might actually be a tick SE of the 18z run. Surface is definitely SE of 18z as well. By about 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Turns into a nice hit for N NJ at 57 hrs and the immediate suburbs. Mid level features might actually be a tick SE of the 18z run. Wouldn't it be better for it to have heavy precip so we have a chance for the precip to overcome BL problems and stick? The GFS was weak and still had BL problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Snow at Mt. Earthlight at 57 hours, its rain before this, but notice how the column is starting to dry up above 700, the best stuff is moving east at this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At 57 it looks like east of i95 cannot recover in time for the good qpf...northwest still gets plastered .35" falls from hour 57-60. Not bad at all this run, even close to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The warmer surface initially keeps this mostly an interior event, this run...judging by the snowfall accumulation maps on stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Surface is definitely SE of 18z as well. By about 50-75 miles. Yea, this has literally been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 925mb and boundary layer are terrible...this one's for the mountains (on this run). Yep this run looks like a NE PA and Catskills big hit. NW NJ edges in on it too eventually this run but not nearly as much as a little bit further N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is still a good run. This morning most major media forecasts called for partly cloudy and cool on Thursday. Ignoring the trend for a moment, this run snows pretty good west of the cities. If you blend with other guidance or bump this back east in subsequent runs, you've got a nice threat right through I-95. At least we're locking into an actual coastal storm instead of a dissipating sneeze of a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Colder and more east then 18z. But less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Tight cutoff on snow maps. 2"-3" for NYC. 4"-7" for NNJ. Very similar to the October storm. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It looks like the heights were higher along the east coast to start with because the confluent zone was weaker. However, the vort max this run was also weaker, which lead to a gradual east "trend" with the storm with time, and thus the tick to the SE from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Tight cutoff on snow maps. 2-3" for NYC. 4"-7" for NNJ. Very similar to the October storm. http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE066.gif 00z nam is interesting because it initially starts out warmer but the end result is about the same as 18z for immediate NYC area (maybe not so much eastern queens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It looks like the heights were higher along the east coast to start with because the confluent zone was weaker. However, the vort max this run was also weaker, which lead to a gradual east "trend" with the storm with time, and thus the tick to the SE from 18z. This run definitely decreased qpf as well. If we had the 12z or 18z qpf amounts, this run would have been a pretty big hit, due to it being SE and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Going by this run of the NAM, I think interior sections, especially northern NJ, would see a pile up of snow but at the coast and in the city, a change to heavy wet snow possible before this ends and most likely, little or no accumulation. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z nam is interesting because it initially starts out warmer but the end result is about the same as 18z for immediate NYC area (maybe not so much eastern queens) 850 is colder. Have 18z at 66 and 0z at 60 side by side. 850 line is at least 30-40 miles more east at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 850 is colder. Have 18z at 66 and 0z at 60 side by side. 850 line is at least 30-40 miles more east at 0z. Thursday 12z is colder because the storm is faster on this run. If you compare hour 57 of the 0z NAM and hour 66 of the 18z NAM you'll see that the storm is almost in the same location, but the 850mb temperatures are warmer. Overall, this run looks like mostly rain for NYC with a little back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 850 is colder. Have 18z at 66 and 0z at 60 side by side. 850 line is at least 30-40 miles more east at 0z. I think part of it is that it is sped up a tad...but ya side by side 850 line is def further east by a good margin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a few hrs of snow west of the city. Definitely not as snowy as the 18z run especially in the immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thursday 12z is colder because the storm is faster on this run. If you compare hour 57 of the 0z NAM and hour 66 of the 18z NAM you'll see that the storm is almost in the same location, but the 850mb temperatures are warmer. Overall, this run looks like mostly rain for NYC with a little back end snow. Yeah. Looks like maybe a 2-4 hour period of wet snow for eastern NYC and western LI. Tight gradient like October most likely coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This run definitely decreased qpf as well. If we had the 12z or 18z qpf amounts, this run would have been a pretty big hit, due to it being SE and colder. That's the problem with this storm. A weaker vort is what leads to the storm being further east, but that also leads to less dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a few hrs of snow west of the city. Definitely not as snowy as the 18z run especially in the immediate suburbs NYC switches right around hour 57 on NAM and .25"-.35" falls from hour 57-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a few hrs of snow west of the city. Definitely not as snowy as the 18z run especially in the immediate suburbs Ceiling for totals in the mid-Hudson Valley based on 0z guidance thus far? Anywhere near October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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