jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 nasty dry wedge that stopped ice cystal formation, part of the H7 problem. NAM showed it and it didn't look like it lasted long enough to matter but it was about double the amount of time the NAM showed. That comma head/back end of the October low was just pathetic. It was all snow here, but not even enough to stick anywhere, overall it was just light snow for about an hour. Snow in October by itself is amazing, but I have to admit that it was disappointing after we had just been upgraded to advisories for up to 5" of snow. The instant the precip became choppy and broken over Long Island, I knew that the back end was our last shot at anything. The warm air overcame everything immediately and we went to a rainy/sleety mix after the first heavy burst was enough to cover the ground in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Srefs looks fairly warm on first glance. Precip about the same, .50" to .75" Yeah. Surface looks like its torched the whole time precip is available and 850's barely get cold enough with enough precip left. Not a good start. Hopefully, the actual 0z models will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That comma head/back end of the October low was just pathetic. It was all snow here, but not even enough to stick anywhere, overall it was just light snow for about an hour. Snow in October by itself is amazing, but I have to admit that it was disappointing after we had just been upgraded to advisories for up to 5" of snow. The instant the precip became choppy and broken over Long Island, I knew that the back end was our last shot at anything. The warm air overcame everything immediately and we went to a rainy/sleety mix after the first heavy burst was enough to cover the ground in snow. The best part for the nyc area was the initial WAA with the fantastic evap cooling. After that, we suffered issues with precip intensities and then the mid level jet pinching off snow growth by the time the back side came through, it was just too much to recover. Still I will never complain about that storm as I pushed it for days and any snow accumulation in october is amazing. Of course, going back over it, we should have paid more attention to the mid level issue, it was showing up on the nam over and over on the skew t's for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Lot of energy to draw on out there; sea surface temperature near the Benchmark around 70F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I've heard this line, though with slightly different phrasing, at least two dozen times since 1998. I always cringe a little. I attribute the myth largely to DT. I think he was the first to describe the pattern ingredients for coastal snowstorms in a generalized way that "weenies" could identify and understand. At least for the online weather enthusiast community. "50/50", "southeast ridge", blocking etc... Of course the reality is that snowstorms, in particular light and moderate storms, come in an infinite variety of shapes and sizes. All you need is cold air from cloud to surface, a crystallization/condensation nuclei, -10C or lower in the snow origination zone, and rising air. A favorable "pattern" makes it a little easier, but there is a lot of randomness in snowstorm correlations and distributions. Most of those ingredients for snowstorms are really talking about significant snow...1-3" front end events or changeover events can happen in all types of patterns if the cold air is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 BOOYAKAAA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Lot of energy to draw on out there; sea surface temperature near the Benchmark around 70F... Closest buoy to the benchmark I can find has a SST of 55 degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The SREFs have been awful this entire time....only one member had the storm at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Closest buoy to the benchmark I can find has a SST of 55 degrees Fahrenheit. what's 15 degrees amongst friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 But I agree it does seem kind of amazing to be tracking a threat amidst a lousy weather period when it looked and kind of still looks like a continuation of a lousy pattern, Thursday notwithstanding. But at our latitude, it's usually hard to get any kind of snowstorm, even with all the favorable indices and pattern characteristics. I always feel fortunate when it snows IMB. Not sure where you live, but by the sounds of your post, somewhere in North Carolina. I think that's a bit of an exaggeration to say "hard to get any kind of snowstorm." If by snowstorm you mean 12"+, then ok, but we get 3-6" events with relative ease in this area (and I consider 3-6" a snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the intensities on 10/29 were fantastic. No evidence there will be such a large area anywhere as intense as that. Arent you around 800 feet? No, 100ft. Up here in Putnam, there was about a foot and a half at 800ft. The intensity was great, especially early on. But we also needed to cool 10 or 12F back in October. We got about 5F from the latent heat sink of evaporation/melting and another 6 or 7F from the out of this world dynamics. 45F and cloudy to 34F and heavy snow in 35 minutes. I hope the task isn't so great this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not sure where you live, but by the sounds of your post, somewhere in North Carolina. I think that's a bit of an exaggeration to say "hard to get any kind of snowstorm." If by snowstorm you mean 12"+, then ok, but we get 3-6" events with relative ease in this area (and I consider 3-6" a snowstorm). I think he's speaking more to the fact that the atmospheric processes which allow snowstorms to occur are incredible...which I agree with. It's amazing watching what goes on to get these storms to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Most of those ingredients for snowstorms are really talking about significant snow...1-3" front end events or changeover events can happen in all types of patterns if the cold air is around. I agree. But I would take it a step further to include the 3-6" range too without a favorable "pattern." Like you suggest, the major storms are the most strongly correlated to indices and other identifiable parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just eyeballing through 24, NAM looks like it may come in a hair more amplified. The heights along the east coast are tilted more S-N again compared to the 18z run. On the other hand, it looks like the PV/shortwave associated with it is pressing south faster this run. Should be cool to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Just eyeballing through 24, NAM looks like it may come in a hair more amplified. The heights along the east coast are tilted more S-N again compared to the 18z run. On the other hand, it looks like the PV/shortwave associated with it is pressing south faster this run. Should be cool to see what happens. i bet when you say eye balling you are using a pro-tractor and compass to measure it exactly, otherwise, no way you could just detect a "hair" adjustment. Nice try though Bill Nye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not sure where you live, but by the sounds of your post, somewhere in North Carolina. I think that's a bit of an exaggeration to say "hard to get any kind of snowstorm." If by snowstorm you mean 12"+, then ok, but we get 3-6" events with relative ease in this area (and I consider 3-6" a snowstorm). I live in the Mid-Hudson Valley. I average about four 3-6" or greater storms per winter. That's less than one per month. In other words, long periods of time with only nickle-dime stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i bet when you say eye balling you are using a pro-tractor and compass to measure it exactly, otherwise, no way you could just detect a "hair" adjustment. Nice try though Bill Nye. It's not that hard to pull up the two runs in your browser and compare them. You can see the differences in the height field that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I live in the Mid-Hudson Valley. I average about four 3-6" or greater storms per winter. That's less than one per month. In other words, long periods of time with only nickle-dime stuff. Fair enough, all a matter of perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's not that hard to pull up the two runs in your browser and compare them. You can see the differences in the height field that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think he's speaking more to the fact that the atmospheric processes which allow snowstorms to occur are incredible...which I agree with. It's amazing watching what goes on to get these storms to come together. That's not exactly what I meant but I wish I had said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Through 30hrs on the NAM, the height contours have not sagged like previous runs up in NY State. It's likely warmer up to this point as a result. S/W and vortmax slightly faster and southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Through 30hrs on the NAM, the height contours have not sagged like previous runs up in NY State. It's likely warmer up to this point as a result. S/W and vortmax slightly faster and southeast... Part of what I was saying...you could see it at 24 hr ...the height field on the East coast is more amplified as a whole. You don't need a protractor to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Part of what I was saying...you could see it at 24 hr ...the height field on the East coast is more amplified as a whole. You don't need a protractor to see it. Well I have mine out. Slightly cleaner phase/incorporation of Great Lakes energy looks to raise heights along the coast. That might produce a slightly stronger storm but probably more warmth initially. More mature looking mid-level structure overall. Probably good for inland Va, Md, Pa etc... Temps could still crash later. Maybe heavier precip helps everyone in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looking significantly more amplified now by hour 39-42. The base of the trough is on the Gulf Coast now. This run may produce a very significant system, but I would be surprised if it wasn't warm for most of the area. The surface low will be forced to develop farther northwest given this height field. Absolutely no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Lot of energy to draw on out there; sea surface temperature near the Benchmark around 70F... Closest buoy to the benchmark I can find has a SST of 55 degrees Fahrenheit. Look closer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looking significantly more amplified now by hour 39-42. The base of the trough is on the Gulf Coast now. This run may produce a very significant system, but I would be surprised if it wasn't warm for most of the area. The surface low will be forced to develop farther northwest given this height field. Absolutely no doubt about it. And the pitfalls of this +NAO/Nina pattern become apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 snywx ought to be getting really excited right now based on these upper air charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 1008 over central NC at 45...this is gnna be huge for someone...probably interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 1008 over central NC at 45...this is gnna be huge for someone...probably interior I'm thinking it looks similar to last nights run which hammered the interior as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 ukie may have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.