eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The medium range still looks devoid of legitimate threats on the operational run. The longwave jet structure looks mildly conducive and there is a nice temperature gradient setting up roughly parallel to the Eastern seaboard but there is no s/w to amplify the flow along the gradient and trigger cyclogenisis. I bet the ensembles will contain a few cookie crumbs around day 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nice run for the city & east... Bad run for the interior locations but anything is still possible.. Actually, not a good run for anyone. Interior is low on qpf and coastal plain boundary layer is too warm per soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 To get an actual snow event, maybe even a decent one, in what many call a "terrible pattern" can't be too depressing. Maybe all those doom and gloom posts about the entire winter are all nonsense and any comparisons to 2001-2002 or 2007-2008 should be thrown out. I do think if we get a snowstorm, it's mostly luck, strongly positive AO, NAO patterns are not good in December but few have failed to realize that whenever the NAO values drop significantly or increase significantly, it usually signals and a storm/low on the east coast and in the next 3-4 days, the NAO is expected to drop from nearly +2 to almost neutral 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think we will know for sure tomorrow afternoon what will happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18 Z GFS ensemble means Different storm surprised no one mentioned the ECM ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z GEFS means are stronger with the surface low and have more precipitation than 12z--closer to the coast and maybe a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Holy crap...a few of them have the surface low sub 990 near the 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mentioned the signal at 126 earlier today...the GEFS have it again. It's broad..but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mentioned the signal at 126 earlier today...the GEFS have it again. It's broad..but it's there. I think it may be a non-event....takes too long to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mentioned the signal at 126 earlier today...the GEFS have it again. It's broad..but it's there. My point and click... Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM clownies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM clownies check out that gradient in nassau county!! 1 inch south shore, 6 inches north shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At this point, we dont need the track to change at all really....but a stronger surface low would help draw in some more cold air to the coast. Of course, then you run the risk of having the storm get too amped up and flooding the us all with mild atlantic air. Fine line we're toeing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 probably will hangout in this thread since its boring as ever out in the Midwest. showing the dynamic cooling nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 probably will hangout in this thread since its boring as ever out in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 showing the dynamic cooling nicely That website stopped working for me a few weeks ago for whatever reason. I loved those graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think we will know for sure tomorrow afternoon what will happen with this storm. I like you but I think this is another one of those potential snow events that you can't say or know for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 oh man. some of these members are really deepening this thing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 oh man. some of these members are really deepening this thing offshore. My how quickly the tide turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yep. My how quickly the tide turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 We've only got out to 60 hrs but here's the NAM at that time. Just about changing over in the immediate burbs. A ton of precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 oh man, im kind of getting pumped up a bit, on the image above^ what does the size bars on the right mean like percent of rain vs snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 18z NAM is more negatively tilted with the vort at 60h compared to the 12z run, and the heights along the east coast respond to that. It allows the pva to tuck the surface low more north before going northeast..which ticks things warmer for some areas but also brings impressive forcing into play. You have to wonder if, at least away from the coast, this is the best run yet. Because the dynamics and heavy precip assure that you won't have light to moderate rain falling aka the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 probably will hangout in this thread since its boring as ever out in the Midwest. showing the dynamic cooling nicely Nice...what site is this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nice...what site is this from? It used to be on coaps, I believe, but I found the same stuff right here: http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/ncepwrf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It used to be on coaps, I believe, but I found the same stuff right here: http://policlimate.c...rf/ncepwrf.html Thanks...bookmarked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 When do we think this event starts? Sometime wed night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 18z NAM is more negatively tilted with the vort at 60h compared to the 12z run, and the heights along the east coast respond to that. It allows the pva to tuck the surface low more north before going northeast..which ticks things warmer for some areas but also brings impressive forcing into play. You have to wonder if, at least away from the coast, this is the best run yet. Because the dynamics and heavy precip assure that you won't have light to moderate rain falling aka the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Holy crap...a few of them have the surface low sub 990 near the 40/70 Imagine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 oh man, im kind of getting pumped up a bit, on the image above^ what does the size bars on the right mean like percent of rain vs snow? That is a simulated radar. The levels are the dbz levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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