Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I-95 is LITERALLY the dividing line for the heavier snows and the lighter snows on the 18z NAM. I won't be able to make any more posts later today because of this atrocious 5 post limit which I hope to get removed soon, but I wanted to state that the 18z GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow, NYC is the line indeed. More than 20-25 miles S and or E of NYC looks like mostly Rain, more than 20-25 miles N and or W of NYC looks like mostly Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 nice run for my area, can't complain, but i am definitely concerned about more ticks north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nice run for my area, can't complain, but i am definitely concerned about more ticks north & west. HPC agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nice run for my area, can't complain, but i am definitely concerned about more ticks north & west. My lord.. Just saw the 18z NAM. Its printing out 10-15" of snow for my location.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 HPC agrees Can't view attached images on the iPhone skin. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z NAM Text printouts for some interior locales... http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmgj.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kswf.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kfwn.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kdxr.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kpou.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Khpn.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmmu.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hopefully it's just the NAM being too amped. It's pretty much the most amped model by far right now. 0z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Can't view attached images on the iPhone skin. Odd. Try this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Can't view attached images on the iPhone skin. Odd. I've been having that problem for a while now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nice run for my area, can't complain, but i am definitely concerned about more ticks north & west. also the drying of the 600 levels, as we saw in October, isn't good. The best dynamics in and around KNYC are before 63 hours on the 18z run and up until then its all rain. After that, it cools down enough for snow but how much saturation is left is debatable. Hudson Valley, western and nw jersey into PA would really clean up if the 18z nam verified, but it is def. warmer than its 12z run and narrows the snow window to basically three hours west of the areas I just mentioned, especially I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z NAM Text printouts for some interior locales... http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmgj.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kswf.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kfwn.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kdxr.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kpou.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Khpn.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmmu.txt that was a kick ass run for you. Maybe I'll head back towards the old stomping grounds for this is things look like this closer, we are still aways out and just beyond where the NAM has been the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I've been having that problem for a while now as well. Maybe they will view on our iPads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 also the drying of the 600 levels, as we saw in October, isn't good. The best dynamics in and around KNYC are before 63 hours on the 18z run and up until then its all rain. After that, it cools down enough for snow but how much saturation is left is debatable. Hudson Valley, western and nw jersey into PA would really clean up if the 18z nam verified, but it is def. warmer than its 12z run and narrows the snow window to basically three hours west of the areas I just mentioned, especially I-95. Euro ensembles and euro op have low tracking SE of benchmark. NAM likely too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that was a kick ass run for you. Maybe I'll head back towards the old stomping grounds for this is things look like this closer, we are still aways out and just beyond where the NAM has been the best. Exactly.. I highly doubt I would even get half that Edit: I do think snow is in the cards for interior locations though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 HPC agrees They did interestingly mention this though with their discussion: DUE TO ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY... HPC WENT AHEAD TO INTRODUCE A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES ON THE VERY BACK EDGE OF THE EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD OR FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEWRD TOWARD THE POCONOS AND BERKSHIRES/WHITE MTNS. HPC WILL LEAVE OUT THE MAJOR CITIES ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR FOR THE TIME BEING... DESPITE THE INCREDIBLE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE COMMA HEAD PRECIP... AND UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Snow maps show sharp cutoff. 3-4" into NYC and little for LI. Similar cutoff to the Octover storm. Not good for my area but the lack of blocking and the storm going way too fast to bring enough cold air in place for everybody to get accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not good for my area but the lack of blocking and the storm going way too fast to bring enough cold air in place for everybody to get accumulating snows. It's 1 run. 12z gave all of us snow. There won't be a solution until tomorrow nights 0z runs or even Wednesday's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What happened to the sheard out S/W, now we are talking about a storm with a coma head precip shield.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z gfs is very nice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Colder then nam. Similar track to euro and euro ensembles. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS still flat and progressive compared to the NAM. NAM's probably more right, as it usually is in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS can stay right there if you ask me. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What happened to the sheard out S/W, now we are talking about a storm with a coma head precip shield.... The challenges of weather forecasting. One day we think this and the next day we think that. It is a humbling experience and goes to show the real truth about forecasting just a few days into the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Colder then nam. Similar track to euro and euro ensembles. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06066.gif Nice run for the city & east... Bad run for the interior locations but anything is still possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nice run for the city & east... Bad run for the interior locations but anything is still possible.. The reality is likely a compromise between the 2 (or at leas thats what the weenie in me hopes ) and would make many people here happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The reality is likely a compromise between the 2 (or at leas thats what the weenie in me hopes ) and would make many people here happy. A compromise would be best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the huge hudson bay low is the key...any misplacement of it will throw everything else off. we're trying to squeeze the cutoff in the sw between that and the se ridge. timing will be everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nice run for the city & east... Bad run for the interior locations but anything is still possible.. 500mb and 300mb are improved on the 18z GFS. We're in fine shape right now, esp if the ensembles still contain a few good hits without extreme spread. If everything looked like the NAM right now I would be concerned for a warm solution. If the shortwave wraps up quickly in the mid-South and goes strongly negatively tilted early, that could push a surface low up into the Ohio Valley, stall the CAA, and create a prolonged southerly LL flow. I prefer this GFS depiction. From this point, a slightly stronger s/w would produce a moderate snowstorm from EPa, CNJ up into the mid-HV. A GFS/NAM/Euro compromise would work well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There has been shift NW much on the 12z and 18z runs from the 0z and 6z runs this morning. I think if not 0z tonight, then by 12z tomorrow, could tell if this is beginning of a NW trend in the model suite. Or if there is still some waffling back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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