SBUWX23 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So much for that tick east This run destroys the interior at 63 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow is the nam warm, makes sense. Soundings on twister don't look terrible. Marginal in the low/mid levels and warm just near the surface. That should cool at precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wait until you guys see 66 hrs. Eduggs is going to crap himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM sounding 63 hours NYC. Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 66 is what dreams are made of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Does anyone get the Jan 26-27 (I don't mean literally the same storm) type feel with that image at 57? Remember that second batch down in VA that we watched come all the way up? I don't know, maybe its just me. Really cool to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Get that mother of god image up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wait until you guys see 66 hrs. Eduggs is going to crap himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Very sharp cutoff between the city and suburbs on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Buddy, twisterdata point and click sounding thing doesnt work too well. That lat lon is in jersey....south of staten island NAM sounding 63 hours NYC. Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 are we getting into some dynamic cooling here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18 Z NAM @ 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It might be M.O.G. time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NYC NAM 66 hours, cold enough for snow, but its starting to dry out in the 600 level, may not be able to make flakes anymore. Surface is still warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Coincidence that my internet just happened to crash when hour 66 came out...? Soundings confirm its snow, although this whole situation is a little too close to comfort... any more west and NYC gets a soaking rainstorm, any more east and we get snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Buddy, twisterdata point and click sounding thing doesnt work too well. That lat lon is in jersey....south of staten island its close enough, the 0 line is north of the city anyway. This is a nice run for the far out burbs into the hudson valley, jersey, and then into PA. Big winter so far for the PA guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 That sounding is way off from NYC's coordinates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Buddy, twisterdata point and click sounding thing doesnt work too well. That lat lon is in jersey....south of staten island This. You're far south (relatively speaking) of Central Park. It's latitude is closer to 40.71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This storm looks very similar to the Haloween storm, especially in terms of timeline (rain to snow) and accumulations in our area. Both have a storm developing to our SE and as the storm develops (both by CAD in this case and dynamic cooling) colder air arrives and transitions precip over. Looks like rain to start, then a transition to snow as the CCB/backend of the storm takes over. No accums/mostly rain from the front end but a nice finish. Looks like 2-4" away from the immediate coast for C NJ/NE NJ, 1-3" NYC is in the cards, more N&W. Ill take it...in essence we do have cold air working in with this set-up at near the perfect time and a 50/50 low of sorts helping as well. And it least this time it is December and not October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Upton now going with a snowier outcome... Forecats IMBY shows rain to rain/snow to snow, with a mix in NYC. The afternoon discussion should be interesting to read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This storm looks very similar to the Haloween storm, especially in terms of timeline (rain to snow) and accumulations in our area. Both have a storm developing to our SE and as the storm develops (both by CAD in this case and dynamic cooling) colder air arrives and transitions precip over. Looks like rain to start, then a transition to snow as the CCB/backend of the storm takes over. No accums/mostly rain from the front end but a nice finish. Looks like 2-4" away from the immediate coast for C NJ/NE NJ, 1-3" NYC is in the cards, more N&W. Ill take it...in essence we do have cold air working in with this set-up at near the perfect time and a 50/50 low of sorts helping as well. And it least this time it is December and not October. Agreed...And just like that storm people with unrealistic expectations (ie 6+) and people suggesting this is likely an all rain event, will most likely be either disappointed (6+) or just wrong (all rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That sounding is way off from NYC's coordinates He is just being a weenie. So against this storm that he'll show CNJ as NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Agreed...And just like that storm people with unrealistic expectations (ie 6+) and people suggesting this is likely an all rain event, will most likely be either disappointed (6+) or just wrong (all rain). I also want to qualify this statement by stating that I completely understand how difficult it is in a pattern like this to get accumulating snow, especially in a situation where we start out warm and cool down as the storm progresses, but basically all the information we have available from today suggest at least the likelihood of snow flakes. Whether or not its for most of the storm or only on the backend remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wait until you guys see 66 hrs. Eduggs is going to crap himself. Just did. 66hr 500mb looks like some of the better GEFs members. Closed contour near Delmarva. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This storm looks very similar to the Haloween storm, especially in terms of timeline (rain to snow) and accumulations in our area. Both have a storm developing to our SE and as the storm develops (both by CAD in this case and dynamic cooling) colder air arrives and transitions precip over. Looks like rain to start, then a transition to snow as the CCB/backend of the storm takes over. No accums/mostly rain from the front end but a nice finish. Looks like 2-4" away from the immediate coast for C NJ/NE NJ, 1-3" NYC is in the cards, more N&W. Ill take it...in essence we do have cold air working in with this set-up at near the perfect time and a 50/50 low of sorts helping as well. And it least this time it is December and not October. IMO this sounds like 12/5/09 as well, but with heavier snow in the back end. There's still room for adjustments as this is 66 hours out, and not all of the QPF will fall as snow as you said, but a 2-4" event away from the coast does look like a reasonable possibility as long as there's not any big changes from this point on. The NAM is probably overdone with the QPF in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Just did. 66hr 500mb looks like some of the better GEFs members. Closed contour near Delmarva. Impressive. Hopefully for many near the coast, that doesn't happen. That to me sounds like all cold rain with maybe some flakes at the end, like this NAM run showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Snow maps show sharp cutoff. 3-4" into NYC and little for LI. Similar cutoff to the Octover storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM sounding 63 hours NYC. Rain That plot does look like rain. But twisterdata maps are funky. A tick north of that location shows a snow sounding. OK so maybe NAM would be rain in the City and coast to start. Regardless of the specific model depiction, everyone would flip to snow at some point with that synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Upton now going with a snowier outcome... Forecats IMBY shows rain to rain/snow to snow, with a mix in NYC. The afternoon discussion should be interesting to read... "The trend is our friend". The potential for a rain snow mix is up from yesterday for NYC for Thursday. I'm skeptical but we did get that anomalous snowstorm in late October that surprised us. We just have to follow the models and the actual weather and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Snow maps show sharp cutoff. 3-4" into NYC and little for LI. Similar cutoff to the Octover storm. Can I have a link to one of these snow maps? The only snow maps I know of are Twisterdata and Raleighwx although they're usually inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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