earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 snywx has a good chance of getting some snow if the system takes a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Can anyone help me figure out what's happening in this time frame? Unfortunately I'm having a lot of problems with my computer and other things and haven't had a chance to check the weather until now, and I'm completely clueless on this time frame seeing the GFS show a snowstorm, ECM just offshore, NAM with rain, CMC with nothing, ect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 FOR OUR AREA...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY WED. THIS TROUGH MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AS SW TROUGH/LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID WEST AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER...SO IT/S SOLUTION NOT FOLLOWED HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM at 51 hrs has a 150kt SSW jet streak over Eastern OK. Usually not a good sign to get frozen precipitation into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 That being said the entire flow is less amplified as a whole with west winds in the mid-upper level over the Northeast. Have to wonder if this run may come in less amplified than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM at 51 hrs has a 150kt SSW jet streak over Eastern OK. Usually not a good sign to get frozen precipitation into our area. nor is a HP moving off the east coast with a return flow torching the lower levels, but hey, the nogaps looks good, if you correct for all its 1 million biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 590dm ridge off the SE coast and a closed 546 low over the midwest. Not a recipe for good things for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 But people said the same thing before the October storm! March 2009 had a +AO and a snowstorm...people get too hung up in index players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 March 2009 had a +AO and a snowstorm...people get too hung up in index players. I wonder why they havent posted watches yet. In all seriousness, you could actually sneak one in here. How has the guidance been so far for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder why they havent posted watches yet. In all seriousness, you could actually sneak one in here. How has the guidance been so far for ORH? GEFS show a -NAO in the long range. Cold and snow have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 GEFS show a -NAO in the long range. Cold and snow have a chance. You forgot the ensemble NAO forecast graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder why they havent posted watches yet. In all seriousness, you could actually sneak one in here. How has the guidance been so far for ORH? for Will, yes, not us and I don't consider march 2009 a sneak. It had a great PNA ridge with deep cold air being reinforced and a cutoff 500mb low over the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 for Will, yes, not us and I don't consider march 2009 and sneak. It has a great PNA ridge with deep cold air being reinforced and a cutoff 500mb low over the south. End of winter too...wavelengths really shorten as you get into March...classic March cutoff low riding up the PJ. It wasn';t ideal, but its far easier to do in March than Dec/Jan/Feb. This current threat IMHO looks like dung for even ORH...so that tells you my opinion on it. There's an outside chance, but it will be very lucky if it happens. Its worth watching since there hasn't been crap to watch in weeks, but I do not find a reason to get too analytical over it until it keeps showing a possible hit at inside of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 End of winter too...wavelengths really shorten as you get into March...classic March cutoff low riding up the PJ. It wasn';t ideal, but its far easier to do in March than Dec/Jan/Feb. This current threat IMHO looks like dung for even ORH...so that tells you my opinion on it. There's an outside chance, but it will be very lucky if it happens. Its worth watching since there hasn't been crap to watch in weeks, but I do not find a reason to get too analytical over it until it keeps showing a possible hit at inside of 84 hours. yah, the wavelengths helped, but it was barely march, I think we could have done it earlier in the season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z NAM actually looks like it's setting up to be a New England snowstorm. Not surprisingly rain for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's too bad we have no cold in the antecedent airmass...the surface low looks to be going off the M/A coast south of Long Island on this run http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yah, the wavelengths helped, but it was barely march, I think we could have done it earlier in the season too. Very questionable...maybe mid Feb or early Dec (but the lack of cold then would have killed you...since almost the same thing happened on 12/12/08)...but yeah, its not a classic setup in mid winter. People love to come up with exceptions to villify any forecast of warmth and snow which is fine...if the poster is getting too overwhelming with that attitude...but sometimes its ok to accept that the pattern just cannot produce. Since the pattern has been so bad, its fine to follow this "threat"...its better than zero threat, but not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Monster hit for the Poconos and even parts of Orange Co at 84 hrs..as expected and probably the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Monster hit for the Poconos and even parts of Orange Co at 84 hrs..as expected and probably the best case scenario. there are warm layers all over IMHO. Look at the 540 line, its way displaced, something is askew, even for Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's too bad we have no cold in the antecedent airmass...the surface low looks to be going off the M/A coast south of Long Island on this run http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f84.gif NAM would probably be huge snow here at the elevations...wish I could take it seriously. But the PV is going to put this through a meat grinder most likely. If it doesn't...very high risk of west storm. Its literally trying to roll snake eyes playing craps. Hopefully it happens...but its hard to get optimistic without a blocking feature that buoys our errors in track...thats why blocking is so nice...it takes a much stronger difference in solutions to change the chances of snow...they like to reject height rises when it tries to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 there are warm layers all over IMHO. Look at the 540 line, its way displaced, something is askew, even for Orange County. That p-type graphic is usually pretty accurate...we'll have to see on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That p-type graphic is usually pretty accurate...we'll have to see on the soundings. well unless they moved orange county, they are mixing on that chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 well unless they moved orange county, they are mixing on that chart Western Orange and NW Sussex NJ look to be snowing there. Who cares...it's probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 there are warm layers all over IMHO. Look at the 540 line, its way displaced, something is askew, even for Orange County. The Twisterdata sounding shows a very borderline situation for Orange county, probably placing the rain/snow line over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Western Orange and NW Sussex NJ look to be snowing there. Who cares...it's probably wrong. agree, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That p-type graphic is usually pretty accurate...we'll have to see on the soundings. 1-800-I-NEED-HELP-84-HR-NAM They are good people and help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oz run is colder and more east than the 18z run. Cant wait for the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oz run is colder and more east than the 18z run. Cant wait for the gfs. blind leading the blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Will said, I guess it's cool that there's something to track. But this system has very little chance of bringing snow to anybody in this area that doesn't have good elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Will said, I guess it's cool that there's something to track. But this system has very little chance of bringing snow to anybody in this area that doesn't have good elevation. The NAM got colder since 18z, so that's something positive. I hope at least part of your area can see snow. It will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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