Will We See A Temporary Drop In the AMO?

[bluewave]

The interesting thing about this fall pattern in the Arctic is that it's looking more like before

1995 when the AMO shift occurred. Ever since 1995, we have seen more blocking from

September into December. This year has a much different look than you would expect

to see. Since the change happened in the mid nineties, we still have longer to run in

this general positive phase.The last great positive phase took us from the 20's into

the early 60's. During that era, we saw dips in the AMO before eventually rebounding.

So I am wondering if this pattern is hinting at a temporary drop to closer to neutral

or even negative like we saw during the last great +AMO era?

[bluewave]

If there is anything to this, then it could verify the the predictions from German researchers back in 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7376301.stm

http://www.nature.co...ature06921.html

[BethesdaWX]

I don't think this AMO drop is temporary at all, but thats just me. Theres no doubt in my mind that we peaked between 2004 and 2010. The last -AMO phase began in 1963 and though it went on through the early 1990s I feel that part of the phase was superficial. I have theories on what drives the AMO but I'm not sure they'd be well recieved anywhere in the field of meteorology right now. I'm not a pro at this by any means but in my opinion this decade will do far more than just flatline.

[RIC Airport]

Ok so what does this mean for sensible weather in the east?

[bluewave]

A weakly negative reading came in in November similar to some of the readings back in 2009.

It was the first fall negative reading since 2000.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

[wxmx]

With back to back Ninas and recent strong +AMO, it's not surprising... I think there's no 2 year winter Ninas (or even if one was neutral cold) that hadn't at least a negative month during or within a few months of the second winter cold event. Ninos might be bad for the cane season itself, for example, but are good for latent heat reloading.

[BethesdaWX]

With back to back Ninas and recent strong +AMO, it's not surprising... I think there's no 2 year winter Ninas (or even if one was neutral cold) that hadn't at least a negative month during or within a few months of the second winter cold event. Ninos might be bad for the cane season itself, for example, but are good for latent heat reloading.

Well that's the thing, does separating the AMO from ENSO make sense? They seem to work in tandem. The AMO and global temp lag the ONI but determining the AMO "phase" detrended seems utterly superficial to me.

That's like detrending global temps to detect

natural variation cycles...yet you're removing natural variation in the longer term by doing that in the first place, at least that's how I feel.

Many disagree with any assertion that the -PDO began in 1999. In my eyes the "oscillations" are a property of the 22 year solar cycle while the underlying trend represents the strength of the Sun relative to how close we are to equilibrium. This is why I feel a sharp downturn in the AMO will begin once we reach the solar max in either very late 2012 or 2013 as the magnetic fields cross sides and a third consecutive La Nina takes hold. Many dismiss all this outright even with a potentially viable mechanism offered.

Solar Physicists who abide by this method all get the same results.