weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Where does it have to snow an inch? Logan? Not sure that would happen, lol. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Again.....I'm sure saying west or northwest of 495 is dumbed down for the average person. You realize how many people have no conception even of the geography of their home state and where towns are situated relative to each other etc.... I know people that never pick up a map and if you have a car GPS and you set it so that straight ahead is always on top....you are led around like a blind squirrel and never will understand geography. In some cases, saying ASH to ORH is a better line...but 495 is often good...but agreed. There are times when it matters. Sometimes like 2/24/10 when its more like AFN to ORH...but that wasn't even true in 12/7/96...in 12/7/96 the ASH to ORH line worked well...ASH got 13"...but Lowell got like 6" of slush...and you got like 3-4" of slop before the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No change in the BOX AFD...they're waiting Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No change in the BOX AFD...they're waiting Dr. No It's day 4....why would they...just go rain and\or snow and ride that for another day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's day 4....why would they...just go rain and\or snow and ride that for another day or so. Thats the safest bet this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's day 4....why would they...just go rain and\or snow and ride that for another day or so. My pnc still has no precip Weds night or Thursday...but yeah...no need to rush what might be nothing I hope the whole winter isn't like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Again.....I'm sure saying west or northwest of 495 is dumbed down for the average person. You realize how many people have no conception even of the geography of their home state and where towns are situated relative to each other etc.... I know people that never pick up a map and if you have a car GPS and you set it so that straight ahead is always on top....you are led around like a blind squirrel and never will understand geography. Most people in the BOS metro area who watch the news know where 495 is...the met points it out...you might not know exactly if you aren't from the area, but I can guarantee you anyone who watched the weather regularly...even a layperson...knows where 495 is because they show it on the snow maps...or its implied on the snow maps when they talk about 495 or 128. I think you are slightly underestimating the intelligence of the BOS metro viewers. They know where 495 is....but I'm sure they don't know what the hell a 850 0C line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Odds increasing for an ice/ sleet storm well interior areas. LL cold bleeding ageostrophically south with decent overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Most people in the BOS metro area who watch the news know where 495 is...the met points it out...you might not know exactly if you aren't from the area, but I can guarantee you anyone who watched the weather regularly...even a layperson...knows where 495 is because they show it on the snow maps...or its implied on the snow maps when they talk about 495 or 128. I think you are slightly underestimating the intelligence of the BOS metro viewers. They know where 495 is....but I'm sure they don't know what the hell a 850 0C line is. They certainly don't know what lies in the vast wilderness beyond 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Odds increasing for an ice/ sleet storm well interior areas. LL cold bleeding ageostrophically south with decent overrunning. I don't expect any significant ice/sleet from this storm. BL warmth will be the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's day 4....why would they...just go rain and\or snow and ride that for another day or so. They have partly sunny and 41* lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 They certainly don't know what lies in the vast wilderness beyond 495 Unless you have been out there........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 They certainly don't know what lies in the vast wilderness beyond 495 Oh I agree...they think we live in with the bears and mountain lions...but they def know what 495 is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was agreeing that they would knows where 495 was..... I was saying they might be confused if they used various names of towns to describe the rain/snow line.....even though that would be the best way to do it probably. Same thing here...often they say south versus north of 90 .... Even though 90 gains latitude steadily from MA to about UCA....so it's imperfect. Most people in the BOS metro area who watch the news know where 495 is...the met points it out...you might not know exactly if you aren't from the area, but I can guarantee you anyone who watched the weather regularly...even a layperson...knows where 495 is because they show it on the snow maps...or its implied on the snow maps when they talk about 495 or 128. I think you are slightly underestimating the intelligence of the BOS metro viewers. They know where 495 is....but I'm sure they don't know what the hell a 850 0C line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 They certainly don't know what lies in the vast wilderness beyond 495 Beyond 495 is complete wilderness to us inside 128. Even just outside 128, you start to get that 'country feel' Not expecting much here...but it'll be nearly mid-Dec, so hopefully we can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't expect any significant ice/sleet from this storm. BL warmth will be the issue. Yeah, NAM has SE CT above 40 and much of the state 35-36 besides the NW hills (below 32) at 12z Thursday as the precip begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's the same with Metro NYC people.... when it comes to Upstate NY. Once past Westchester and Rockland counties it might as well be Wyoming. LOL Beyond 495 is complete wilderness to us inside 128. Even just outside 128, you start to get that 'country feel' Not expecting much here...but it'll be nearly mid-Dec, so hopefully we can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well seems like the Thursday/Friday threat is not 0, but it really is like walking a tight rope. Good to see the euro ensembles on board with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Our system for Thursday is really that mess over the Four Corners? Well at least it is something to track and pass sometime for when we actually get to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wasn't really payiing much attention to this storm but I just noticed how NW the ensembles are.. about half give good qpf here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah, NAM has SE CT above 40 and much of the state 35-36 besides the NW hills (below 32) at 12z Thursday as the precip begins... Hence way inland, what does that mean to you? BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's the same with Metro NYC people.... when it comes to Upstate NY. Once past Westchester and Rockland counties it might as well be Wyoming. LOL Very true! lol... According to my fam in the Bronx I live near Canada meanwhile im about a 1 hr drive door to door from my house here in western Orange County to the Bronx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wasn't really payiing much attention to this storm but I just noticed how NW the ensembles are.. about half give good qpf here. I think this will be a very difficult storm given the narrow area of cold air to work with, but I also feel it's worthy to track. The consistent se ridge makes me think it may not be a total miss...but on the other hand...it does not have much cold to work with. Even if it means a lousy rain to snow like the EC ensembles have...anything is better than this horrific pattern. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oh I agree...they think we live in with the bears and mountain lions...but they def know what 495 is. Some of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think this will be a very difficult storm given the narrow area of cold air to work with, but I also feel it's worthy to track. The consistent se ridge makes me think it may not be a total miss...but on the other hand...it does not have much cold to work with. Even if it means a lousy rain to snow like the EC ensembles have...anything is better than this horrific pattern. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 00z suite. I think you already know what the ulimate outcome will be.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think this will be a very difficult storm given the narrow area of cold air to work with, but I also feel it's worthy to track. The consistent se ridge makes me think it may not be a total miss...but on the other hand...it does not have much cold to work with. Even if it means a lousy rain to snow like the EC ensembles have...anything is better than this horrific pattern. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 00z suite. Regardless, I think this may produce for someone. Hard to say exactly where, but my first guess would be Catskills, Berks, and Monads. Models have been all over the place, but given the strength of the SE ridge, I'm not sure I buy an OTS solution like the 12Z Euro. In fact, I'm a little more worried that this is a CNE and NNE snow event than an OTS whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think this will be a very difficult storm given the narrow area of cold air to work with, but I also feel it's worthy to track. The consistent se ridge makes me think it may not be a total miss...but on the other hand...it does not have much cold to work with. Even if it means a lousy rain to snow like the EC ensembles have...anything is better than this horrific pattern. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 00z suite. That's the big thing...even if it comes NW to a point where most of the region is into meaningful precip...we are left with one of these deals where we are trying to cool the column from a torched atmosphere and then quickly running waa back into it. Your left with a very small margin of error and probably a BL thats never able to get overly cold outside of the usual elevated distant interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The CIPS analog site for 96 GFS top ten, 8 featured ice. 12//05 is in there, yikes Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Regardless, I think this may produce for someone. Hard to say exactly where, but my first guess would be Catskills, Berks, and Monads. Models have been all over the place, but given the strength of the SE ridge, I'm not sure I buy an OTS solution like the 12Z Euro. In fact, I'm a little more worried that this is a CNE and NNE snow event than an OTS whiff. Yeah I sort of question it myself..which is why I feel it may be worthy to track...but I don't think you can say much more. I defintely would not rule it out...but I don't completely buy a total whiff right now. We are in that who knows/cares stage right now and the next 24 hours will hopefully help figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That's the big thing...even if it comes NW to a point where most of the region is into meaningful precip...we are left with one of these deals where we are trying to cool the column from a torched atmosphere and then quickly running waa back into it. Your left with a very small margin of error and probably a BL thats never able to get overly cold outside of the usual elevated distant interior. Yeah I agree...but it's better than nothing. There is a pretty small margin of error with this. I could care less about the solutions right now...I'm just keeping that solution on the back burner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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