ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs slightly NW of 15z but not as much as I thought they would be...they brought the 0,25" qpf line to about ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 They bumped a bit NW, but some members were way SE. Yeah they are pretty suppressed, but we still aren't in the SREF wheelhouse. Low pressure was flat out non-existent earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Srefs are toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs slightly NW of 15z but not as much as I thought they would be...they brought the 0,25" qpf line to about ORH. Perfect, things are coming together great IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs slightly NW of 15z but not as much as I thought they would be...they brought the 0,25" qpf line to about ORH. Good news imo...don't want them as far west as the rgem etc. A euro/18z nam compromise would probably be pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Srefs.. Sorry Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Srefs.. Sorry Mike. Hmm...to bad you couldn't get that any smaller... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hmm...to bad you couldn't get that any smaller... I'm always drumming up business...... Mean mslp is way east ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Playing around with the NAM on twisterdata, you can see a nice unstable layer near the canal. That layer from near 600mb to just below 500mb is unstable...you can tell by how it bends to the left meaning temperature decreasing quicker with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Confidence growing for frozen p-type for this Met. I was just studying the obs on the polarward side of the baroclinic axis running NE-SW through the western OV area. It appears the 500mb, 44dm thickness contour is about where the cold rains goes to glop. Much of SE lower Michigan into NW Ohio and NE Indiana are steady in light to moderate snow. This flashed over shortly after dark. I am not certain whether that p-type was anticipated or not, but it is what it is. I believe similarly that tendency axis will translate east as said b-axis slips by. We end up in 540 to 545dm west to east across the area, and then what we will have that they don't in SE Lower MI is superior dynamics running over top with cyclogen typology to deal with. The combination of these obs against the anticipated synoptic evolution is leading me to conclude that after a few sprinkles and noodles, a direct hit like the blend currently wants would then pound the area with gradually shrinking 'chutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Playing around with the NAM on twisterdata, you can see a nice unstable layer near the canal.That layer from near 600mb to just below 500mb is unstable...you can tell by how it bends to the left meaning temperature decreasing quicker with height. Talk dirty to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Playing around with the NAM on twisterdata, you can see a nice unstable layer near the canal. That layer from near 600mb to just below 500mb is unstable...you can tell by how it bends to the left meaning temperature decreasing quicker with height. What do the different colored lines denote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Confidence growing for frozen p-type for this Met. I was just studying the obs on the polarward side of the baroclinic axis running NE-SW through the western OV area. It appears the 500mb, 44dm thickness contour is about where the cold rains goes to glop. Much of SE lower Michigan into NW Ohio and NE Indiana are steady in light to moderate snow. This flashed over shortly after dark. I am not certain whether that p-type was anticipated or not, but it is what it is. I believe similarly that will translate east as said axis slips by. We end up in 540 to 545dm west to east across the area, and then what we will have that they don't in SE Lower MI is superior dynamics. The combination of these obs against the anticipated synoptic evolution is leading me to conclude that after a few sprinkles and noodles, a direct hit like the blend currently wants would then pound the area with gradually shrinking 'chutes. They'll be some gradual shrinking 'chutes in eastern mass if it keeps moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 They'll be some gradual shrinking 'chutes in eastern mass if it keeps moving west. LOL ...right... I don't think it can though. I'm thinking with the PV pressing SE and the vestigial ridge in the SE exerting NW, that will more than less zip this up along a proverbial railway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 What do the different colored lines denote? Dashed red is virtual temperature..don't concern yourself with that. Solid red is temperature. Green line is dewpoint. Blue line it wetbulb temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 They'll be some gradual shrinking 'chutes in eastern mass if it keeps moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Playing around with the NAM on twisterdata, you can see a nice unstable layer near the canal. That layer from near 600mb to just below 500mb is unstable...you can tell by how it bends to the left meaning temperature decreasing quicker with height. I noticed some theta-e folding in some of the time-height plots around the area at that time and layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 How about we roll out a new thread tonight? Already 1000 posts in this one in about a days time. Juju time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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