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Thursday Wintry Threat


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Interesting that the talk in here is mostly rain vs. snow...watched a few local news segments and most of them had dry and 40 for Thursday with the mention of flurries if a storm gets close enough..It's always interesting the perception the public gets from the news. Until today one station had 50F for Saturday... abruptly changed to 35 today...lol.

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Interesting that the talk in here is mostly rain vs. snow...watched a few local news segments and most of them had dry and 40 for Thursday with the mention of flurries if a storm gets close enough..It's always interesting the perception the public gets from the news. Until today one station had 50F for Saturday... abruptly changed to 35 today...lol.

Weekend forecasters are generally the worst. Tim Kelly on NECN is good though. He mentioned the potential for rain and/or snow late week.

Sometimes Burbank is on WBZ, but other times you're left with nobodies.

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I'm a little more worried about it being too robust and northwest (a la NAM) than I am of a OTS solution. I'm not sure why that ridge is just gonna get pushed aside so readily in the Tues/Wed period...to the point of getting the 0C 850 line into JI or DT country... My guess is the 0Z ECM goes well north, but we shall see.

What they're saying is that it is usually consistently wrong. lol

As for the NAM...it's in its 84hr lala range land so I personally wouldn't put much weight in it. Maybe it will score a coup though.

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What they're saying is that it is usually consistently wrong. lol

As for the NAM...it's in its 84hr lala range land so I personally wouldn't put much weight in it. Maybe it will score a coup though.

The wishcasting on this "Threat" is pretty funny...from all parts of the board. Its an awful storm and it might produce, but there are a billion ways for it to not produce unlike a favorable pattern.

I will admit there is a slight chance this produces...and I mean like >3"...not some 1" of slush garbage. People will love to bump threads over a half inch of junk to pretend that they were "Right" or the models were "right".

I guess in this bad pattern an inch of slush is a win though, so I will grant that.

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The wishcasting on this "Threat" is pretty funny...from all parts of the board. Its an awful storm and it might produce, but there are a billion ways for it to not produce unlike a favorable pattern.

I will admit there is a slight chance this produces...and I mean like >3"...not some 1" of slush garbage. People will love to bump threads over a half inch of junk to pretend that they were "Right" or the models were "right".

I guess in this bad pattern an inch of slush is a win though, so I will grant that.

This pattern has gotten to you too. You seem a little cranky about this threat :)

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This pattern has gotten to you too. You seem a little cranky about this threat :)

Its not a good pattern...it could happen...we are in a "better" spot than most to get that narrow stripe of frozen, but its so ugly that I would bet against it. From someone who constantly chastises me for talking about interior ORH-nothward threats, this is ironic...since the interior easily has the best shot in this one, and I'm not very optimistic.

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Its not a good pattern...it could happen...we are in a "better" spot than most to get that narrow stripe of frozen, but its so ugly that I would bet against it. From someone who constantly chastises me for talking about interior ORH-nothward threats, this is ironic...since the interior easily has the best shot in this one, and I'm not very optimistic.

I know... that's why I'm surprised you're not more gung ho. I don't expect anything here but I could see ORH squeezing out something.

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Its not a good pattern...it could happen...we are in a "better" spot than most to get that narrow stripe of frozen, but its so ugly that I would bet against it. From someone who constantly chastises me for talking about interior ORH-nothward threats, this is ironic...since the interior easily has the best shot in this one, and I'm not very optimistic.

What are your thoughts on the 12/9 analog?

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I know... that's why I'm surprised you're not more gung ho. I don't expect anything here but I could see ORH squeezing out something.

I mostly see a rainer here or a scraper that give me and inch of slush or two...there's a narrow "medium" that give me warning criteria or advisory criteria, but I do not see that right now.

I guess it could happen, but usually when I'm optimistic is when we are further into winter or when we have a pattern that is distinctly in favor of a system whether its over Phil/ACK or over Kevin with a bit of cold air in place.

This is a "perfect" thread the needle type situation with a rapidly de-amplifying s/w...we have like a million things working against us. I guess if we get to 72-84h to go and its showing up pretty nice, then I will jump on board...to your discontent if its monads or ORH hills threat. But at least not yet, you don't have to hear that from me.

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I mostly see a rainer here or a scraper that give me and inch of slush or two...there's a narrow "medium" that give me warning criteria or advisory criteria, but I do not see that right now.

I guess it could happen, but usually when I'm optimistic is when we are further into winter or when we have a pattern that is distinctly in favor of a system whether its over Phil/ACK or over Kevin with a bit of cold air in place.

This is a "perfect" thread the needle type situation with a rapidly de-amplifying s/w...we have like a million things working against us. I guess if we get to 72-84h to go and its showing up pretty nice, then I will jump on board...to your discontent if its monads or ORH hills threat. But at least not yet, you don't have to hear that from me.

That's like 6z tomorrow, so I doubt it :lol:

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I mostly see a rainer here or a scraper that give me and inch of slush or two...there's a narrow "medium" that give me warning criteria or advisory criteria, but I do not see that right now.

I guess it could happen, but usually when I'm optimistic is when we are further into winter or when we have a pattern that is distinctly in favor of a system whether its over Phil/ACK or over Kevin with a bit of cold air in place.

This is a "perfect" thread the needle type situation with a rapidly de-amplifying s/w...we have like a million things working against us. I guess if we get to 72-84h to go and its showing up pretty nice, then I will jump on board...to your discontent if its monads or ORH hills threat. But at least not yet, you don't have to hear that from me.

I mostly give you grief for the moisture starved clippers you get excited about when it's like 15 outside. Those I have no use for lol

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Its not a good pattern...it could happen...we are in a "better" spot than most to get that narrow stripe of frozen, but its so ugly that I would bet against it. From someone who constantly chastises me for talking about interior ORH-nothward threats, this is ironic...since the interior easily has the best shot in this one, and I'm not very optimistic.

I was offended by your nomination. It's not that I'm overly optimistic, it's just that it snows a lot here. Take this threat for example, who in Massachusetts is more likely to get accumulating snow than The Berks?

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Every now and then you can get some decent snowstorms in an otherwise hideous pattern. Two months that come to mind are January 1990 and January 2006....for out here anyway. Wet snow deals in a sea of mildness.

I mostly see a rainer here or a scraper that give me and inch of slush or two...there's a narrow "medium" that give me warning criteria or advisory criteria, but I do not see that right now.

I guess it could happen, but usually when I'm optimistic is when we are further into winter or when we have a pattern that is distinctly in favor of a system whether its over Phil/ACK or over Kevin with a bit of cold air in place.

This is a "perfect" thread the needle type situation with a rapidly de-amplifying s/w...we have like a million things working against us. I guess if we get to 72-84h to go and its showing up pretty nice, then I will jump on board...to your discontent if its monads or ORH hills threat. But at least not yet, you don't have to hear that from me.

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