NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GEFS pretty juicy. Are the news outlets just playing wait and see? I've always hated when you see a potential like this, turn on the evening news and have them downplay this to a few mangled flakes. I think other weenies know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Haha I probably go to bed before all of you... I wake up not long after the EURO comes out on EWall. Tomorrow will be my 14th straight day of waking up at 3:45am, in Mountain Operations looking over weather and temp data by 5am. You've got me beat. I'm a 5:00a.m. riser. But that's just so I can enjoy my coffee and read about the overnight models/commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GEFS pretty juicy. Are the news outlets just playing wait and see? I've always hated when you see a potential like this, turn on the evening news and have them downplay this to a few mangled flakes. I think other weenies know what I'm talking about. You must watch Ryan's forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's no joke. I have no cell service here at the house and I have to drive several miles to a hot spot that isn't always hot.lol I get cell, but not 3G. Have to rely on my wireless for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Just to make me feel good, The GEFS are a tick NW of the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm going to wait until 00Z suite to be sure, but I'm liking the looks of this for the Berks. NAM would imply a warning level event for the southern half of the area and at least an advisory level event for the northern half. As was the case with 10/29 and many other past events, I'm expecting a sharp cutoff on the NW flank. Could be one of those things where PSF gets a 6" event while ALB gets 1" or 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone know what the 12Z Ukie showed? GEFS look close to the BM again, but I would expect them to be the further east anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Love Buffalo? 3rd time and love it everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone know what the 12Z Ukie showed? Pretty warm, but you would like it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone know what the 12Z Ukie showed? It was west and pretty amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ahh I feel like it will get up north enough to give me something, but the Berks will jackpot...been a very persistent track (means nothing I'm sure) since the beginning of last Winter..... Pretty warm, but you would like it. http://www.meteo.psu..._0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Who's ready for more power outages. It's been almost a month and this light and heat is really getting on my nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ahh I feel like it will get up north enough to give me something, but the Berks will jackpot...been a very persistent track (means nothing I'm sure) since the beginning of last Winter..... So often, I've been on the cusp. I've been able to eek out some decent ones. On one of these cusp events, I'm going have the 'oh so close' scenario. I'd feel better if I were a little further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This forecast says "jackpot" all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Clown How haven't they found a way to make the verification on those things better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Clown Is the green six? I'm on the green/white line. Either way--better than this: MAZ002-060900- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 416 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 How haven't they found a way to make the verification on those things better? The algorithm isn't perfect, but most of the problem there is because of how ridonkulous the NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some really amped up GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to amp up on the overnite runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm going to wait until 00Z suite to be sure, but I'm liking the looks of this for the Berks. NAM would imply a warning level event for the southern half of the area and at least an advisory level event for the northern half. As was the case with 10/29 and many other past events, I'm expecting a sharp cutoff on the NW flank. Could be one of those things where PSF gets a 6" event while ALB gets 1" or 2". I was going to ask you what your take on this was. Hoping to get snowcover back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to amp up on the overnite runs tonight yeah but be careful what you wish for with that lol. You don't want an amped up 32.5F sleet/rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to amp up on the overnite runs tonight Congrats Logan11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some really amped up GEFS members. Yes, a few of those members would imply a quick hitting death band for Berks and Monads. Could be fun, especially if low tracks inside the bench and more toward Cape Cod. I was going to ask you what your take on this was. Hoping to get snowcover back. I think you well. It should last a little longer this time. Even in a mild pattern, climo should keep it there for a while. Unless of course we get some big lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yes, a few of those members would imply a quick hitting death band for Berks and Monads. Could be fun, especially if low tracks inside the bench and more toward Cape Cod. I think you well. It should last a little longer this time. Even in a mild pattern, climo should keep it there for a while. Unless of course we get some big lakes cutter. One of the reasons the easterners love us so much.lol Yes, I hope so. All of the trails here are clean and ready for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sam, how about a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 One of the reasons the easterners love us so much.lol Yes, I hope so. All of the trails here are clean and ready for more snow. I wonder if it is possible for you to go a day on here without mentioning some sort of "easterners" or lower elevation snow climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I've just gone over most of the data for today as I was out most of today...we are definitely a lot closer to getting almost a perfect thread the needle track on the vortmax and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I've just gone over most of the data for today as I was out most of today...we are definitely a lot closer to getting almost a perfect thread the needle track on the vortmax and strength. Hey Will, I am out of the loop on this puppy, life is so busy right now, but what would you think for my area down here, I suppose my western location helps while being near LIS and the marine influence hurts. I was thinking rain changing to snow, maybe a coating?? Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS pretty juicy. Are the news outlets just playing wait and see? I've always hated when you see a potential like this, turn on the evening news and have them downplay this to a few mangled flakes. I think other weenies know what I'm talking about. More than anything they worried about warm temps at the surface? Temps will be kind of eh.. I get what your saying I hate seeing a wintry threat and then boom local news downplays it. I would think at the most we see wet snow for many, some to the north and west could see something more. If everythings stays on track Oh nws has a rain snow mix imby, not bad I will take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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