40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's south of you, but even so...lingering boundary layer warmth is the problem. If the airmass was cold enough...you would start as snow and not have a worry about that CF. Yea, I get that, but at least I won't get cf exhaust or have the marine puke to combat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yea, I get that, but at least I won't get cf exhaust or have the marine puke to combat. I actually think this wouldn't be a case of that happening. I shouldn't have said strong CF..that was probably bad wording. Think back to the 2-3 storms last winter when the CF was south of me and you ended up doing better than me. There are other features that are important too. Either way, I don't want to sound to giddy with this....but lets face it...the weather lately has sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bringing out the "A" quality posts today. well done. As have you and Ryan. I think we are sort of excited in a way, but there is def high let down potential for some...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Noyes and Bouchard aren't really biting just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wouldn't it be funny if we got a foot of unexpected snow ...then, 8 days later 90L developed into a TC and curled up the EC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As have you and Ryan. I think we are sort of excited in a way, but there is def high let down potential for some...lol. not that i have any control over it, but i don't want this going NW in a fashion similar to the UKMET or any other mild solution that may exist on the myriad of products out there. i'm still concerned about that, though. my expectations are zero given the set-up and really the time of year per climo...but i want enough leftover moisture to flip to some flakes thursday morning before this ends....just so it actually briefly looks and feels something like december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NWS in Upton mentions how dynamic cooling will help areas even along the coast will change to snow: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW AREAS TO THE NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO TO START OFF DRY WED EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST...BUT THEN PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD NE LATE WED NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE AREA FALLS UNDERNEATH BANDING IN ITS NW QUADRANT. NO STRONG HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...BUT NRLY FLOW AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP WARMER MARITIME AIR FROM GETTING INVOLVED. NAM VERY AGGRESSIVELY CRASHES SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION VIA DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE BOARD. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS SINCE THIS ACTUALLY WORKED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HISTORIC 10/29 SNOWSTORM...BUT SINCE THIS IS A 5TH/6TH PERIOD EVENT AND FCST IS STILL LESS THAN CERTAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVELY BY BLENDING NAM 2M SFC TEMPS WITH MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS PRIMARILY WET SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING THE CT COAST...AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW FOR NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT A STRIP OF ADVY-LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWER AMTS FOR NYC METRO AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND. STAY TUNED HERE AS SHIFTS IN STORM TRACK/FORWARD MOTION/INTENSITY COULD HAVE IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON THE FCST DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Noyes and Bouchard aren't really biting just yet... Noyes is he said accumulating snow for northern,western and central new england! no surprise for bouchard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wouldn't it be funny if we got a foot of unexpected snow ...then, 8 days later 90L developed into a TC and curled up the EC - Tip, you've handled this storm really well over the past few days. Are you sticking to your light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Tip, you've handled this storm really well over the past few days. Are you sticking to your light to moderate event. Might be a good idea to define what "light", "moderate", and "major" means quantifiably. Not sure if AMS glossary has them defined for Meteorological parlance, but when I was back in my UML days it was defined as: 2-5" light : advisory 5-10" moderate : warn 10+" major : warn If there is a formal definition for winter weather types we should stick to that, but using this above I think the range of a light to moderate event is justified, when also considering that this NAM solution is a bit of a QPF amplitude outlier at this time. If the next cycle comes in with another nod from one of the other majors ...like the GFS or Euro teaming up with the UKMET/NAM, we may want to consider. In fact I would actually consider systemic correction for more if it were not for the fact that this impulse is actually dying in the flow as it is coming through based on the blend of most depictions - although the UKMET offers a tad more phasing, noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hopefully Will isn't swinging from the rafters somewhere. I gave him a weenie call to let him know about the euro, but he didn't pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is a tick NW, but still SE of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like the 18z GFS has ticked NW from 12z and 4mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z GFS is a little nw of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hopefully Will isn't swinging from the rafters somewhere. I gave him a weenie call to let him know about the euro, but he didn't pick up. Anyone confirm a well being check on him and Kev? Yikes. 18z GFS is NW by quite a bit actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is a tick NW, but still SE of the other models. Small steps in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There is definitely a nice thermal gradient that this system will be riding along enhancing the precip. Warm ocean temps with a nice PV pressing down from the Hudson. I think this is what Scott was alluding to in his post. Funtimes indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Noyes is he said accumulating snow for northern,western and central new england! no surprise for bouchard. Really? Haven't watched today, but the threat for NNE is very low at this point, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There is definitely a nice thermal gradient that this system will be riding along enhancing the precip. Warm ocean temps with a nice PV pressing down from the Hudson. I think this is what Scott was alluding to in his post. Funtimes indeed. feeling it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM snowdepth is a general 3-6" with some spots in the Litchfield hills and ORH hills with 6-9". Could be pretty fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is somewhat west but still on the eastern envelope of solutions. Is the crazy uncle onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 feeling it? Yup. I think the ORH hills out to MPM and Pete's Glen will be in the sweet spot. I think most of us will see flakes out of this right down into my area over to Scooters parents place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is somewhat west but still on the eastern envelope of solutions. Is the crazy uncle onto something? Sometimes he comes back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hopefully Will isn't swinging from the rafters somewhere. I gave him a weenie call to let him know about the euro, but he didn't pick up. Maybe he is taking a break from the board.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Welcome back home for the Rev..lalalalalalala locking up 4-8. The bus is fired up and ready to rock. I have room for 40 weenies. Who's in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Welcome back home for the Rev..lalalalalalala locking up 4-8. The bus is fired up and ready to rock. I have room for 40 weenies. Who's in? I'll get on the bus, but I am reserving the seat right next to the tail pipe just in case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'll get on the bus, but I am reserving the seat right next to the tail pipe just in case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Welcome back home for the Rev..lalalalalalala locking up 4-8. The bus is fired up and ready to rock. I have room for 40 weenies. Who's in? Yes! We got our optimist back in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Enjoy any flakes, because it will be a long time before you see them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Certainly nice to have something to talk about. But I am in the camp with CapeCod right now. I am definitely worried about this thing sliding NW and possibly going right over our heads. Definitely think that we start as rain and whether we end as snow.....we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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