CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's amazing that the october air mass was colder. lol yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's amazing that the october air mass was colder. I know..remember we joked about how we are going to wish we had these mid level temps come winter? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That isn't the 850 line. The yellow is the 850-700 critical thickness line (which is basically a measure of mid level warmth) and the red is 1000-850mb critical thickness line (low level measure of warmth). Ah, so wasn't reading that right. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks a little Ukieish. I've been poopooing this event for a few days, but that was while the models were all significantly deamplifying that s/w in rapid fashion. Now it holds together strong enough as it passes our region. It almost drops 1" QPF up here with 2m temps of 32F...probably a pipedream, but lol anyways. Make that 0.50"...I forgot to subtract the QPF from the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What is the BL like for eastern SNE? Mid 30's? Around 40 for the Cape to start? 850 looks fine after the initial burst. Wind starts E, but then more NNE. I think we'd get advisory snows (on this run) all the way to 128. Low level warning snows west of ASH, ORH, TOL. on this run it sucks. it's warm way west...like BOS to KTOL..the 12z was way colder. as was the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What is the BL like for eastern SNE? Mid 30's? Around 40 for the Cape to start? 850 looks fine after the initial burst. Wind starts E, but then more NNE. I think we'd get advisory snows (on this run) all the way to 128. Low level warning snows west of ASH, ORH, TOL. Yeah it would be a cold rain for a while with 850 temps near 0C, and then a dynamic flash over to a 33F snow for a while..probably dropping to 32F. I'm speaking more for interior areas like Ray. Pretty strong coastal front too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I know..remember we joked about how we are going to wish we had these mid level temps come winter? LOL. I'll take -6 to -8 at 850 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's amazing that the october air mass was colder. 10/29 is still my 3rd coldest max temp of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah it reminded me of the Ukie too. Def worth following up your way. Worth following our way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well hey..at least we have something to track. Like Brett says, good for the Holidays and hopefully at least some accumulation for a large audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I know..remember we joked about how we are going to wish we had these mid level temps come winter? LOL. LOL..i know...how many times did we mention that? makes you appreciate how "frigid" that air mass was. this sub-tropical garbage sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah it would be a cold rain for a while with 850 temps near 0C, and then a dynamic flash over to a 33F snow for a while..probably dropping to 32F. I'm speaking more for interior areas like Ray. Pretty strong coastal front too. I could still use another tick NW for the Monadnocks but the 18z NAM looks decent for SW NH. I like seeing how it's closing off the shortwave and keeping it intact as it passes NYC. I'm definitely glad I have elevation though because the BL is going to suck with the cold air stuck over the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 10/29 is still my 3rd coldest max temp of the season. Good stat. BDL is #2 with their 41F on 10/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could still use another tick NW for the Monadnocks but the 18z NAM looks decent for SW NH. I like seeing how it's closing off the shortwave and keeping it intact as it passes NYC. I'm definitely glad I have elevation though because the BL is going to suck with the cold air stuck over the Plains. Not really...don't fall for the QPF hype..lol. You would get some decent snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 10/29 is still my 3rd coldest max temp of the season. Good stat. BDL is #2 with their 41F on 10/29. wow - that's sad...but cool at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not really...don't fall for the QPF hype..lol. You would get some decent snow verbatim. Socks has been drinking out of moneyshotmike's Pepsi glass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol yup yeah, watch it turn out to be a uniform 32.4F rain event for everyone except Ray, where it is 32.0000001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could still use another tick NW for the Monadnocks but the 18z NAM looks decent for SW NH. I like seeing how it's closing off the shortwave and keeping it intact as it passes NYC. I'm definitely glad I have elevation though because the BL is going to suck with the cold air stuck over the Plains. up your way you may not have those same low level temp issues. you'll start draining in colder/drier air a lot sooner than places in the eastern half of SNE just in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow - that's sad...but cool at the same time. And actually over the next 7 days if GFS MOS is right it will still be #2 on the list lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles are right near the BM. Looks like 0.50" line runs from NW CT-ORH-PSM. 0.25" DDH-LCI-IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Make that 0.50"...I forgot to subtract the QPF from the fropa. About the same here verbatium for what the 18z Nam is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah it would be a cold rain for a while with 850 temps near 0C, and then a dynamic flash over to a 33F snow for a while..probably dropping to 32F. I'm speaking more for interior areas like Ray. Pretty strong coastal front too. It will probably be in like N Billerica, though. I'll be on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hey..if it can snow in March a few days after a 70 degree day with a late summer sun angle, I think we can manage a good solution in nearly mid Dec. This isn't a raging coastal with strong winds off the ocean. I think if this holds serve, areas just away from the coast will likely get advisory snows (2-5") after initial rains. Where it stays all snow, more significant accums (4-7"). As the rev would say, lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well the NAM provides dynamics so that's the hope for the flip. If it flips its going to snow very hard. Tip's 12/05 is an interesting analogy but not sure the tropopause kisses my bald spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It will probably be in like N Billerica, though. I'll be on the wrong side. Usually it is between me and you. Hopefully, it stays in Winchester/Medford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It will probably be in like N Billerica, though. I'll be on the wrong side. It's south of you, but even so...lingering boundary layer warmth is the problem. If the airmass was cold enough...you would start as snow and not have a worry about that CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hopefully just a nam hiccup run...the 12z is much colder in the low levels (these are 925 mb temps - so for the coastal plain like 2000-2500 feet +/- depending on what's going on) these are valid 12z thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here is an example of deformation and why we talk about this. This is more like the "stretching" deformation. Notice how the wind vectors are SSW into southern new england, and westerly out in PA and NY. You can see the convergence area near NYC and into SNE of those vectors. What you are doing an essence is piling up or converging the isotherms together. When you do that, you have a strong temp gradient. The atmosphere becomes imbalanced...it does not like strong temperature gradients. So what happens is that you get a response in which you have rising air near and just south of this convergence line...and it shows up in this prog. Now the atmosphere is likely tilted in the vertical so the rising air you see off to the south will continue rising through the atmosphere at an incline. Part of the reason where it's good to be n or nw of the 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 150 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011 VALID 12Z THU DEC 08 2011 - 12Z MON DEC 12 2011 ...QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY DAY 3... ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE SEASON... FINAL... THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE WAS TO SLOW THE WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA SLIGHTLY DAY 3...TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE 12Z/05 GUIDANCE. THIS POSITION ENDS UP BEING BETWEEN THE 00Z/05 AND 12Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z/05 GFS...GEFS MEAN...AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE EMERGING OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO DYNAMICALLY COOL PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON DC TO BOSTON TO THE POINT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD END AS SNOW. THE EARLIER THE TURNOVER...THE MORE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ROLL OVER INTO ALASKA AND THE YUKON...DIRECTING CONTINENTAL POLAR AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...WHERE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FAR WEST WILL BE INCREASING PROTECTED FROM THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK VIA BUILDING HEIGHTS. Pretty much sums it up for me, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here is an example of deformation and why we talk about this. This is more like the "stretching" deformation. Notice how the wind vectors are SSW into southern new england, and westerly out in PA and NY. You can see the convergence area near NYC and into SNE of those vectors. What you are doing an essence is piling up or converging the isotherms together. When you do that, you have a strong temp gradient. The atmosphere becomes imbalanced...it does not like strong temperature gradients. So what happens is that you get a response in which you have rising air near and just south of this convergence line...and it shows up in this prog. Now the atmosphere is likely tilted in the vertical so the rising air you see off to the south will continue rising through the atmosphere at an incline. Part of the reason where it's good to be n or nw of the 700mb low. bringing out the "A" quality posts today. well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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