weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Juiced run...but a lot of qpf is wasted on rain east of ORH especially. MRG and MPM are ripping from 9z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hvy hvy AWTs heard on the east slope. Edit: and hvy hvy WTFs about this font size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Surface temps are warm, the storm is moving at a good clip and still has 4-6 more runs to tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 MPM and Pete will like this. Yuppers. Nice shift--looks like it still stays cold for most, too. 48.3/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that run is a w NE special Western SNE special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kevin probably gets too warm. NW CT and MRG... FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Plenty of juice in the waters south of SNE and a potent shortwave, so I think VVs will be strong imo. The track and ptype will be what needs to be resolved. I feel pretty good that it will have plenty of moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol...10" for MRG? Damn. I'd take this run even though it gives me rain at the start...it probably still gives me 5-7" after the flip. Verbatim 4am to 10am Thursday would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Like I said...we'll need to see if more runs oscillate because the NAM loves to ramp things up a bit much. Could be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Plenty of juice in the waters south of SNE and a potent shortwave, so I think VVs will be strong imo. The track and ptype will be what needs to be resolved. I feel pretty good that it will have plenty of moisture with it. Yeah agreed. Nice track for a moist conveyorbelt, fairly powerful s/w and nice (not amazing) baroclinic zone. Should be enough for a solid swath somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 With the trajectory of the low, We would probably need an inside the benchmark track up here, I would rather see it take a track into the tip of Nova Scotia rather then 50-60 miles east of it.. Speak for yourself . It can stay right where it is. On a side note perhaps this will be the winter with the sh##y pattern that could vs the winter of 09-10 with the great pattern that couldn't. hmm. Might also be a case where you get snow but its gone in three or four days. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah agreed. Nice track for a moist conveyorbelt, fairly powerful s/w and nice (not amazing) baroclinic zone. Should be enough for a solid swath somewhere. Dude it hammers the Berks..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Like I said...we'll need to see if more runs oscillate because the NAM loves to ramp things up a bit much. Could be right though. I actually don't hate this solution. Wet front end, yeah, but it ends as some snow. And that's fun. You know. For the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yep could be the curse of this winter.... Warm on this run. could be...who knows. i wouldn't make that leap but it is what it is. if this thing were running into even a semi-seasonal dry december airmass it'd be game on for us, imo. some of the strongest low and mid-level frontogenesis moves over S areas...it would be a good set-up for this area mid-winter. but the low levels are just ravaged...especially down here...on this run, it's bad even further NW (wouldn't necessarily put much stock in that part). the 12z nam and ec were more optimistic / cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol...10" for MRG? Damn. I'd take this run even though it gives me rain at the start...it probably still gives me 5-7" after the flip. Verbatim 4am to 10am Thursday would be fun. Just put me under the Oct 27 band again, please. Nothing like an 18z NAM at 66hrs to end the day on a good note. Just to lead to nightmares after the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty impressive as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow that would be an awesome hit for the interior.. seems a bit to amped up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty impressive as modeled. Clown map time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty impressive as modeled. If I am reading that correctly the 850 line goes right over me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 could be...who knows. i wouldn't make that leap but it is what it is. if this thing were running into even a semi-seasonal dry december airmass it'd be game on for us, imo. some of the strongest low and mid-level frontogenesis moves over S areas...it would be a good set-up for this area mid-winter. but the low levels are just ravaged...especially down here...on this run, it's bad even further NW (wouldn't necessarily put much stock in that part). the 12z nam and ec were more optimistic / cooler May be the normal over correction of an off hour run...but either way still a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If I am reading that correctly the 850 line goes right over me... That isn't the 850 line. The yellow is the 850-700 critical thickness line (which is basically a measure of mid level warmth) and the red is 1000-850mb critical thickness line (low level measure of warmth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty impressive as modeled. Too close for comfort with that 0 line.... but certainly intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well there is a chance for some more northward shifts I think. This shortwave is initially positively tilted. And then goes negatively tilted, but dampens out a bit. On the above image, notice we have a s/w northeast of Maine. Although it is progressive...it does give some confluence to the north which helps to not send this into Long Island. I feel like any time you have a ridge to the southeast and a big PV to the northwest over Hudson and Bay and points north...the risk is a more northerly track which is why I was saying I wasn't completely sold on a whiff last night. Now the north trend is limited. The S/W could get sent through the shredder and end up weaker, but my guess is we probably will not see an offshore solution. Good explanation, And the 18z Nam kind of follows what you mentined as well as where i said we would like it to see track here, Just inside the BM brings some of the better precip here even though it ends up east of Nova Scotia.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks a little Ukieish. I've been poopooing this event for a few days, but that was while the models were all significantly deamplifying that s/w in rapid fashion. Now it holds together strong enough as it passes our region. It almost drops 1" QPF up here with 2m temps of 32F...probably a pipedream, but lol anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow this `18z NAMMY is big-o whammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not sure how to post images but follow the link this would be pretty sweet http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's amazing that the october air mass was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What is the BL like for eastern SNE? Mid 30's? Around 40 for the Cape to start? 850 looks fine after the initial burst. Wind starts E, but then more NNE. I think we'd get advisory snows (on this run) all the way to 128. Low level warning snows west of ASH, ORH, TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kevin probably gets too warm. NW CT and MRG... FTW! oh hey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks a little Ukieish. I've been poopooing this event for a few days, but that was while the models were all significantly deamplifying that s/w in rapid fashion. Now it holds together strong enough as it passes our region. It almost drops 1" QPF up here with 2m temps of 32F...probably a pipedream, but lol anyways. Yeah it reminded me of the Ukie too. Def worth following up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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