moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles are right near the BM. Is that just a mean or do you get to see individual members? Are they tightly clustered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 With the trajectory of the low, We would probably need an inside the benchmark track up here, I would rather see it take a track into the tip of Nova Scotia rather then 50-60 miles east of it.. Well there is a chance for some more northward shifts I think. This shortwave is initially positively tilted. And then goes negatively tilted, but dampens out a bit. On the above image, notice we have a s/w northeast of Maine. Although it is progressive...it does give some confluence to the north which helps to not send this into Long Island. I feel like any time you have a ridge to the southeast and a big PV to the northwest over Hudson and Bay and points north...the risk is a more northerly track which is why I was saying I wasn't completely sold on a whiff last night. Now the north trend is limited. The S/W could get sent through the shredder and end up weaker, but my guess is we probably will not see an offshore solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Is that just a mean or do you get to see individual members? Are they tightly clustered? It looks pretty clustered for a 72 hr prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan....05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. Nice write up, and worded very well. More than once you let people know that all the right ingredients need to be in place, so people shouldn't be expecting much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It looks pretty clustered for a 72 hr prog. Thanks. What does a brother need to do to get a measley75 mile shift? 47.9/47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well there is a chance for some more northward shifts I think. This shortwave is initially positively tilted. And then goes negatively tilted, but dampens out a bit. On the above image, notice we have a s/w northeast of Maine. Although it is progressive...it does give some confluence to the north which helps to not send this into Long Island. I feel like any time you have a ridge to the southeast and a big PV to the northwest over Hudson and Bay and points north...the risk is a more northerly track which is why I was saying I wasn't completely sold on a whiff last night. Now the north trend is limited. The S/W could get sent through the shredder and end up weaker, but my guess is we probably will not see an offshore solution. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ok lets see what the nams 18z will do. further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ok lets see what the nams 18z will do. further north? I think it jackpots around Manchester, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think it jackpots around Manchester, NH. Would appear that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan....05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. Just read this, nice right up Ryan, well explained. Good information for a weenie to learn from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM looks like its going to be a big hit for interior SNE based on where the trough is going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z will hold serve based on 57 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z will hold serve based on 57 hour prog. I think the s/w looks sharper. This will come closer I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hard to tell...maybe tighter in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not having a good antecedent air mass on this thing hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z to 9z Thursday it starts as rain for most on the 18z nam. Warmer and faster then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think the s/w looks sharper. This will come closer I think. Hard to tell...maybe tighter in? lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 MPM and Pete will like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nam looks like its going to be good for interior southern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Gotta beware of the NAM sometimes being overzealous with these S/Ws too. One of many things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM buries DC/BWI...not kidding! And then after raining here flips to heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not having a good antecedent air mass on this thing hurts Yep could be the curse of this winter.... Warm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Berks do the best on this I thnk, but it is a good hit for Kev and Will too at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not having a good antecedent air mass on this thing hurts Agreed. Looks like the 18z NAM is about to go all Crazy Ukie on that s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that run is a w NE special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Big hit verbatim for the interior elevated terrain. East Slopes near MRG look to jackpot on the 18z NAM. I think some on here will lose it if Pete jackpots, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 and boom much closer gives me in southern nh good snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM buries DC/BWI...not kidding! And then after raining here flips to heavy snow! It's pretty warm there for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 not having a good antecedent air mass on this thing hurts Also limits the amount and strength of warm advection so you're looking at less impressive UVM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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