powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 my position remains the same...just flip me to some flakes at the tail end of whatever moves by. given the pattern, that's good enough for me. euro at face value looks like sometime after 14 or 15z thur it might changeover out this way. nam offered up a substantially better scenario. I just think it would be awesome if the Cape somehow pulled a plowable snowfall out of Nature's arse given the temperature regime and overall pattern. But that would really, really be threading the needle. Need heavy fall rates and a just perfect track to keep H85 safely below 0C....and hope dynamics can bring aggregates to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z EURO looks real good for SNE. As much as it pains me to say this, (lol) I do hope the immediate coastal plain folks can capitalize here and at least get the ground white. If it slips SE, a Cape Cod snowfall would be pretty cool, too. Edit, wait, no I'm supposed to say I hope this goes way out to sea and SNE gets cirrus As for me, my rantings were for MBY but I never wish a miss on someone else. If I'm not getting it someone else should but I ALWAYS root for me first and will fight you hand to hand...snowflake to snowflake....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z EURO looks real good for SNE. As much as it pains me to say this, (lol) I do hope the immediate coastal plain folks can capitalize here and at least get the ground white. If it slips SE, a Cape Cod snowfall would be pretty cool, too. Edit, wait, no I'm supposed to say I hope this goes way out to sea and SNE gets cirrus Holy crap. The old snowman choppers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I just think it would be awesome if the Cape somehow pulled a plowable snowfall out of Nature's arse given the temperature regime and overall pattern. But that would really, really be threading the needle. Need heavy fall rates and a just perfect track to keep H85 safely below 0C....and hope dynamics can bring aggregates to the surface. it's mainly the low levels that are the problem in this event. i'm not sure that too many places have to be overly concerned about the 850s really. it's the bottom 2500 feet or so that are warm...mostly on the immediate coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it looks like **** jerry lol Scarlet Johansson knocking on my door and correcting my current situation has just as good of a chance of happening as the day 10 euro correcting to a KU. Nah I think KU is more likely....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 OT- but I think your seasonal snow is wrong. By my math 24+3+1.8 = 28.3" u mean 28.8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What are your thoughts about S VT/ S NH? Mostly cloudy. Honestly I know there is this fear of it coming NW but no operational model has yet to produce that except for the 18z NAM yesterday I think... some ensemble members are a little more amped but I don't know why we would take one or two ensemble members over the OP runs and think its a plausible solution. Just loop the H5 vorticity and watch it evolve... there's really no mechanism for a NW pull except a weakened SE ridge, and that's only going to push it north so far. Out west the wave lengths are dampened, too, so wherever this comes off the coast its just going to rocket ENE. There's not even all that much baroclinicity because New England is so warm, so its not like we'll see frontogenesis bands pushing all the way back to western New England. Its really threading the needle but my gut would say S.VT and S.NH may not see measurable precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mostly cloudy. Honestly I know there is this fear of it coming NW but no operational model has yet to produce that except for the 18z NAM yesterday I think... some ensemble members are a little more amped but I don't know why we would take one or two ensemble members over the OP runs and think its a plausible solution. Just loop the H5 vorticity and watch it evolve... there's really no mechanism for a NW pull except a weakened SE ridge, and that's only going to push it north so far. Out west the wave lengths are dampened, too, so wherever this comes off the coast its just going to rocket ENE. There's not even all that much baroclinicity because New England is so warm, so its not like we'll see frontogenesis bands pushing all the way back to western New England. Its really threading the needle but my gut would say S.VT and S.NH may not see measurable precip. I find this post disgusting, but I agree with it. 46.6/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah its a tough one... honestly the forecaster in me says this stays where it is or trends weaker and more SE just looking at the whole H5 evolution. Dryslot you folks in ME seem to be in with SNE on this one... if they get a good snowfall, you probably will too given the projected tracks on some of the better model runs. PF, We would see some snow out of this per the latest Euro run and a couple others, Still think this will fluctuate some, I would rather have some room to work with but we lie on the NW fringe right now, What would hurt here if it trends SE some, At least its something to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The ice cold GFS has trended much warmer for the weekend down here. Maybe a slightly below normal day on Saturday but otherwise looks like 40s and near or just above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 LOL the 9z SREFS had absolutely nothing, but we are making progress on the 15z SREFS. There are two or three members showing a good hit which is up from none at 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some say 10/31/91 was the perfect storm. To me the perfect storm will be Logan Airport getting .9" while I get 4-8" of snow, MRG enjoys cold dry breezes on the backside and Kev is tied up like the dude in Pulp Fiction in someones basement in Buffalo..arriving back in Tolland only after having his Buffalo priveleges revoked and the snow has melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I find this post disgusting, but I agree with it. 46.6/46 Same here. I'm just planning on light cold rain with a few manglers towards the end. I just want it to turn cold. Good luck to those further south. Hope it changes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some say 10/31/91 was the perfect storm. To me the perfect storm will be Logan Airport getting .9" while I get 4-8" of snow, MRG enjoys cold dry breezes on the backside and Kev is tied up like the dude in Pulp Fiction in someones basement in Buffalo..arriving back in Tolland only after having his Buffalo priveleges revoked and the snow has melted. I find this post disgusting but I agree with some of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this pattern is especially hostile for the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has it clearing by Noon Thursday, quick hitting and potent event. Crazy Uncle is the warmest and most prolific qpf model while GFS (not surprising) is furthest SE. Euro and NAM are quite similar. Now about messenger and my bet. If I win, we're even...no one eats. If he wins, I owe him 2 dinners. The euro is perfect for me. Thump from 6a-11a and pull off 4-5" of snow...a nice early season wet snow storm and the timing is perfect to cancel school as well. i hope it holds serve just so this verifies. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles are right near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/12/05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this pattern is especially hostile for the mid atlantic Well, it is still early December Hopefully something will cause a slow but steady shuffling of the deck towards the mid/end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I find this post disgusting but I agree with some of it has anyone heard from Kev? Hopefully he's not at the "it puts the lotion on" phase. NAM is rolling, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The euro is perfect for me. Thump from 6a-11a and pull off 4-5" of snow...a nice early season wet snow storm and the timing is perfect to cancel school as well. You place no value in your education Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan....05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. lol...sneaky snow. Did scooter co-write the article with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles are right near the BM. East or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 East or west? Well 00z had zippo so west..lol. It looks like it may be just se of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan....05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. Nice thoughts Ryan. Spells it all out perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z EURO looks real good for SNE. As much as it pains me to say this, (lol) I do hope the immediate coastal plain folks can capitalize here and at least get the ground white. If it slips SE, a Cape Cod snowfall would be pretty cool, too. Edit, wait, no I'm supposed to say I hope this goes way out to sea and SNE gets cirrus You understand that the implication of a hit for you is cold rain for me....I'm not sure why you just can't grasp the misery that that entails. Try with all of your might.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BTW people may be interested in my thoughts here http://ryanhanrahan....05/sneaky-snow/ Basically it's not a very exciting setup but wouldn't be surprised if we got lucky. Nice and well written. Sums it up in a nut-shell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well 00z had zippo so west..lol. It looks like it may be just se of the BM. With the trajectory of the low, We would probably need an inside the benchmark track up here, I would rather see it take a track into the tip of Nova Scotia rather then 50-60 miles east of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I just proclaimed to the office "sneaky snow" call in sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't want to muddy up this thread. Try and keep this discussion to the upcoming system. You can talk about future threats and the general pattern in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.