powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Actually you just don't want WNE/NNE getting anymore snow. LOL... I've been getting that feeling even though we haven't been getting snow lately either. People would definitely rather no one gets snow if it can't be their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Actually you just don't want WNE/NNE getting anymore snow. We all have different needs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You guys must be pretty stoked about the long range temps... finally looks like some sustained cold. Dry too. Yeah our operations meeting today was very upbeat... not like the funerals of earlier this week, haha. We are getting equipment in place to absolutely blast as much snow as possible once this turns cold again on Tuesday night or Wednesday. It should be a pretty impressive display of snowmaking. Some of these fan guns could bury a car in like 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 We all have different needs.. But a whiff or nothing? If you don't get snow, who cares if someone else did. The net effect in your backyard is still the same. I got an inch and a half in the October storm but still really, really enjoyed watching that unfold from a met standpoint. That would've sucked if it just went out to sea and no one got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 But a whiff or nothing? If you don't get snow, who cares if someone else did. The net effect in your backyard is still the same. I got an inch and a half in the October storm but still really, really enjoyed watching that unfold from a met standpoint. That would've sucked if it just went out to sea and no one got it. Well ray mentioned he would rather have it snow or whiff, I would rather it snow, Which probably means someone is going to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 But a whiff or nothing? If you don't get snow, who cares if someone else did. The net effect in your backyard is still the same. I got an inch and a half in the October storm but still really, really enjoyed watching that unfold from a met standpoint. That would've sucked if it just went out to sea and no one got it. Because I'm sick of 45* rain....I don't care how much snow you get, or don't. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z ensembles look like they would be NW of the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z ensembles look like they would be NW of the op run FWIW from the NYC thread.... Huge red flag that the OP is SE of the Ensembles again. Like Ryan said earlier, I think we have to be more concerned with this thing cutting overhead of SNE instead of out to sea... Should be a fun couple of days of model tracking... FINALLY! Just saw the GFS ensemble mean. There must be a bunch of runs well NW of the operational as the precipitation shield goes all the way back to Lakes Erie and Ontario. It is still pretty cold though with 850's below 0. Definitely a big shift West from the previous run and a red flag that the operational may be too far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 And then we have the EURO and it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 FWIW from the NYC thread.... Huge red flag that the OP is SE of the Ensembles again. Like Ryan said earlier, I think we have to be more concerned with this thing cutting overhead of SNE instead of out to sea... Should be a fun couple of days of model tracking... FINALLY! lol...and you wonder why you get 5ppd'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think someone mentioned that the Euro ensembles were NW of the op run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol...and you wonder why you get 5ppd'd. What are you talking about? Dryslot posted that the GFS ens. look to be NW of the OP and I posted what someone said from the NYC thread in relation to QPF amounts and such to back up his post with a "For what its worth" What the hell is wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 What are you talking about? Dryslot posted that the GFS ens. look to be NW of the OP and I posted what someone said from the NYC thread in relation to QPF amounts and such to back up his post with a "For what its worth" What the hell is wrong with that? A whiff for you is more likely than a powderfreak jackpot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 AIT..... Cutting is a legitimate threat. Maybe not literally going west of us, but too close or a slight inside runner... I hope I'm still good here, but with no blocking that always has to be on the table. So really it is legitimate to say that the possibilities could range from a Euro OTS to an 18Z NAM situation... FWIW from the NYC thread.... Huge red flag that the OP is SE of the Ensembles again. Like Ryan said earlier, I think we have to be more concerned with this thing cutting overhead of SNE instead of out to sea... Should be a fun couple of days of model tracking... FINALLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS Ensembles have a grab bag of different solutions. A few go into Central PA, a few of them are weak and out to sea, and a few of them track S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It might be time for me to start lamenting lack of qpf in GC. We know how that frequently plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS Ensembles have a grab bag of different solutions. A few go into Central PA, a few of them are weak and out to sea, and a few of them track S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So you're telling me there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Model guidance is showing a large spread with respect to the track of this storm. 18Z NAM is way west, while 12Z Euro is way to the east. As always, track will be critical. A compromise solution could be good for some in SNE, especially in the interior a la 12Z GFS. 12Z GFS could mean inch per hour type snows here in the Berks Thursday afternoon for a while if it were to verify verbatim. 00Z suite will hopefully begin to clear the confusion up a bit. Is it a whiff OTS, coastal track, or an inland runner? Maybe we can find ways to luck out in a crappy pattern. The '09-'10 winter was favorable, but we just had bad luck here in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was going to construct a thread but then saw this one - ha! I am less concerned with 'whether a system will take place for SNE', as I am more concerned about P-type. I am thinking that it turns out colder. Key to this is ...almost like an intangible, but it's not really - just need to think a little out of the box. The cryosphere over Canada is pervasively large and abuts NW New England's boarder with Canada. There is a lot of ambient cold up there available to the 40-80 hour lead time and draining scenario, and I suspect it gets colder comparative to guidance when that takes place; the feedback from that going forward is probably a better BL resistance to lows translating inland across the area. I am impressed by the 12/18z NAM runs because the entire sample of this impulse is inside the NAM's domain - usually this model performs better when it is less assimilation reliant in fast flows relaying events coming off the Pacific. The GFS nosed that same impulse once over N/A and it came back robust. WV suggests lots of wind energy sailing S aloft through western Canada - this impulse(s) wind up trapped in an eventual quasi closure. The Euro was subtly more intense and back W toward the EC compared to the uber flat 00z; that trend is telling for me. I suspect the NAM has as good a chance as any to score a rare coupe in its more typical error prone 60+ frames. This is a NJ model low. If the idea of colder BL resistance takes place and that VMax indeed comes across the CP stronger than we have another meso-beta scale rapid deepening scenario: Lot's of similarities there - I mentioned the the analog appeal to at least one GFS run from 3 days ago. I would not be shocked if the ECM abruptly jumped on board in tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Somewhere in GC a mysterious "Boing!" was heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BOX hasn't updated the text for Day 4 yet...but I found this part kind of odd. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT...QUICK OUTLIER BRINGING A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION DOES HAVE A BIT MORE SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE STORM. THE 04/00Z ECMWF AND THE 04/12Z GLOBAL GEM HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS BEING AN OUTLIER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL LIKELY GO WITH A NON-GFS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Somewhere in GC a mysterious "Boing!" was heard AT 3 plus days any boinging would be stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 BOX hasn't updated the text for Day 4 yet...but I found this part kind of odd. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT...QUICK OUTLIER BRINGING A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION DOES HAVE A BIT MORE SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE STORM. THE 04/00Z ECMWF AND THE 04/12Z GLOBAL GEM HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS BEING AN OUTLIER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL LIKELY GO WITH A NON-GFS SOLUTION. What they're saying is that it is usually consistently wrong. lolAs for the NAM...it's in its 84hr lala range land so I personally wouldn't put much weight in it. Maybe it will score a coup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What they're saying is that it is usually consistently wrong. lol As for the NAM...it's in its 84hr lala range land so I personally wouldn't put much weight in it. Maybe it will score a coup though. The NAM is not only very warm...but isn't it way faster? It looks like most of the precip falls over 3z to 9z Thursday while the gfs has it 18z to 00z....quite the timing difference for a storm on day 3.5/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I like the December 9 analog at H5 but look at the antecedent airmass. It's not even close to being an analog at that level. There were -20 C H85 temperatures over New England on December 8th. If you compare that to the forecast H85 temps when the system is at a similar position as pictured below, they are around -5 through SNE (warmer south, colder north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This new software is dropping posts like a fiend. Waste of time to post and I suspect that's why the posting frequency is down on our threads by so much. Nothing to get excited about for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This new software is dropping posts like a fiend. Waste of time to post and I suspect that's why the posting frequency is down on our threads by so much. Nothing to get excited about for another day. Huh? How are posts getting dropped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I like the December 9 analog at H5 but look at the antecedent airmass. It's not even close to being an analog at that level. There were -20 C H85 temperatures over New England on December 8th. .. Agreed - that's why p-type is the bigger concern for me. There is observable wind dynamics via WV channels that seem to fit better for conserving more potency down in the U.S. out in time - more similar to the NAM/GFS ...perhaps a blend there, I'm afraid. The ECM looks underdone. It'll be interesting when the 00z runs come in weak again - LOL As far as the antecedent air mass - as I mentioned, I am curious about how cold it actually gets post the axis of the baroc zone trekking through. Cold/low-level thickness bleeding off a huge rather anomalous snow pack as discussed may bust the models a little warm. Just an idea here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Huh? How are posts getting dropped? No problems here. New skin is working out nicely and I like the new look too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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